After months of speculation, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) has formally declared her candidacy for Governor of New York in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Schuylerville Republican began posturing for the seat in April. She was originally teed up to become President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) Ambassador to the United Nations. While her nomination was not nearly as controversial as some of his other selections, Stefanik was withdrawn from the process.
However, that setback did not come without a counterbalance. Fellow Congressman Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) was also posturing to run for the opportunity to challenge Governor Kathy Hochul (D) next year. After much persuasion from President Trump, Lawler declined to seek the seat and instead will run for re-election to his Westchester County-based House seat. The Pearl River Republican has overperformed in a district that is light-blue by nature.
But that move also removed a significant obstacle, as of now, for Stefanik: a costly and contentious primary. As of press time, only two minor candidates have filed paperwork, while speculation continues to swirl around the prospects of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach). In addition to being costly, primaries can allow candidates of the same party to attack one another publicly, giving ammunition to the opposition candidate against the primary winner in the general election.
Governor Hochul, on the other hand, only has one declared candidate, her hand-selected Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck). The primary will likely pit progressives against Democratic moderates amidst a Democratic trifecta in Albany and a New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria).
Stefanik has spared no expense in shredding Hochul and Mamdani, frequently branding Hochul as “The Worst Governor in America”, and the mayor-elect as “Commie Mamdani.”
“Kathy Hochul is the Worst Governor in America. Under Kathy Hochul’s failed leadership, New York is the most unaffordable state in the nation with the highest taxes, highest energy, utilities, rent, and grocery prices crushing hardworking families,” said Stefanik in a statement on November 7, the launch of her campaign. “Hochul has created a crime crisis with failed bail reform and her support of Defund-the-Police candidates. And when New Yorkers were looking for leadership the most, Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the raging Defund-the-Police, Tax-Hiking, Antisemite, Communist [Mamdani] who will destroy New York. I am running for Governor to bring a new generation of leadership to Albany to make New York affordable and safe for families all across our great state. Our campaign will unify Republicans, Democrats, and Independents to Fire Kathy Hochul once and for all to Save New York.”
No Republican has won a gubernatorial race since George Pataki (R) was re-elected to a third term in 2002. No Republican has flipped this seat blue since Pataki ousted Mario Cuomo (D) in the 1994 Republican Revolution. Former Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) came extraordinarily close in 2022 when the race wasn’t even on the radar for most observers.
What the Polls Say
Polling for this race has been bipolar. Granted, it’s still a year out and these types of gubernatorial races tend to be late-breaking. However, several polls have shown a competitive race dating back to the spring.
A poll by the firm co/efficient found Hochul just one point ahead of Stefanik – 43%-42% with 15% undecided or opting for another candidate. The poll was conducted with 1,163 likely voters – a large sample size of voters who are regularly active at the polls.
The Siena College found in August that Hochul led Stefanik by fourteen points – 45%-31% (with 24% undecided) – but found in September that Hochul had doubled her lead to twenty-five points – 52%-27% (with 21% undecided).
However, a Manhattan Institute poll from late October found Stefanik leading Hochul by one point. The same poll found Hochul up five points over Stefanik, but the Congresswoman took the lead when voters were informed that Hochul endorsed Mamdani for mayor. In the same poll, Stefanik leads Lieutenant Governor Delgado by six points, should he win his party’s primary in June.
The Political Geography
For decades, New York has been considered one of the “big three” Democratic states, along with Illinois and California. No Republican has won New York’s Electoral College votes in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan (R-CA) in 1984. Last year, Donald Trump came just under twelve points away from flipping New York red – a state Joe Biden (D-DE) had won by twenty-four points in 2020.
The ground game consists of maximum possible turnout downstate, capitalizing on any enthusiasm gap in the Upstate cities and the Hudson Valley, and making inroads in New York City.
For Suffolk County, its importance couldn’t be clearer. As of November 1, 2025, the New York State Board of Elections reports 1,129,835 registered voters in Suffolk. Democrats have a tenuous lead of 370,333 to the GOP’s 355,919. Conservatives make up 21,509 registrants, while the Working Families line has just 4,353. However, competitive elections in New York come down to unaffiliated voters – otherwise known as “Blanks” – of which Suffolk has a whopping 346,797. Other affiliations account for 30,924 registered voters.
For context, in 2022, Zeldin won Suffolk with 330,337 votes to Hochul’s 235,736 – a margin of 94,601 votes or 16.71%.
Suffolk and Nassau counties will be the proverbial “tip of the spear”, as conferred to us by Suffolk County Republican Chairman Jesse Garcia (R-Ridge). As the largest basket of Downstate votes outside of New York City, Long Island can make or break this race – especially for a Republican in a close contest.
We’ll compare the geography to that of a presidential race. Think of Long Island as the Ohio or Florida of this gubernatorial race. While Republicans are generally expected to win there, the question is the overall margin. Stefanik would need to outpace Zeldin’s support here in order to close the gap, assuming other parts of the state remain close to their 2022 margins.
In the same respect, think of the Hudson Valley as Minnesota. Competitive, but obdurately blue. Republicans have been able to thin the margins here, but some counties remain just out of reach. Ulster and Westchester counties remain the bluest in this region, while Columbia is a much lighter blue. Zeldin was able to win Rensselaer and Dutchess counties narrowly, so Stefanik will need to hold the line there.
The Upstate cities weren’t as blue as they are today. The hotspots are Erie County (Buffalo), Monroe County (Rochester), and Onondaga County (Syracuse). Hochul held them all by single-digits in 2022, so Stefanik would have to thin the margins further or even pick off one or two of them. College towns and urban centers make these notorious chokepoints for the GOP in statewide elections. Think of these as the Virginia or New Mexico of the gubernatorial race. One redder – or at least, swingier – now blue-leaning, but still competitive.
Albany County – home to the eponymous capital city – and Tompkins County – home to college town Ithaca – are solidly-blue constituencies. Think of these as the Massachusetts of the political landscape.
New York City remains the bane of the GOP in the Empire State, although the line drawn around it appears to have evaporated. Zeldin and Trump have both posted about 30-35% of the city-wide vote in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Zeldin took 36% of the vote in Queens, 29% in Brooklyn, 22% in the Bronx, and 18% in Manhattan.
For comparison, 2018 challenger Marc Molinaro (R-Catskill) earned just 18% of the vote in Queens, 13% in Brooklyn, 8% in the Bronx, and 10% in Manhattan.
New York City, at this point, could probably be best described, at face value, as Illinois of the race. Staunchly blue, but with pockets of voters with whom the GOP has made serious inroads in the last few cycles. In terms of internal political momentum on the local level, the GOP has been able to win in parts of NYC that they hadn’t in years. Think of those sections as the Michigan of the race.
What Conventional Political Wisdom Says
This is the hardest to pulse. On one hand, New York appears to be a changing state within a political vacuum. Momentum suggests Republicans are making inroads in the populous, diverse areas of the state and that as a one-term governor who’s barely registering at 50% in approval, favorability, and election polls, the race should be engaged. It’s also not a good look to have the governor’s number-two contesting her for her own job. Should Hochul go through a costly and bitter primary, it could damage her chances should she win in June. Support south of 60% in the primary against Delgado should warrant alarm bells of a partisan schism ahead of next November.
On the other hand, New York is still an obdurately blue state with a city that follows its own political machine – and one that the State’s Democratic machine typically follows in certain contexts. While the GOP has made inroads in certain communities, the Democrats have traded that for inroads in some more classically Republican suburban counties, as well as richer, more socially liberal parts of the state – like the college towns and Hudson Valley counties.
Zohran Mamdani becomes mayor in January. His tenure and the state of the city before November will certainly be a referendum. Whatever success or failure he has, Kathy Hochul, as his top endorser, perhaps, would own it. That could pay dividends at the ballot box or make her a lightning rod for her judgement, especially among Independents and moderate Democrats.
The environment in November 2026 is impossible to predict from now, but an environment that is at least neutral is one where this race can be just as competitive, if not more, than 2022.
