After much anticipation and our consistent coverage since the summer, Election Day is finally around the corner. Be sure to hit your local polling place on Tuesday, November 7, if you intend to vote on Election Day.
The Messenger’s Crystal Ball has been a periodical column dedicated to tracking each race within our three townships of coverage, plus some extra races within Suffolk County. This will be the final update of this column and we will give all of our applicable races a final look.
County Executive
By far the most significant race on the ballot this year, we’re less than a week away from learning who will be Suffolk’s next County Executive.
Brookhaven Town Supervisor Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) is squaring off against Dave Calone (D-Setauket).
Romaine’s high name recognition, long service in county and town government, bipartisanship, and respect from both sides of the aisle have, we believe, given him an edge in this election.
Additionally, the current political environment in Suffolk County has favored Republicans in the last two elections. The GOP flipped control of the County Legislature and the District Attorney’s office in 2021 for the first time in fifteen years. The 2022 elections were especially beneficial to down ballot Republicans. Despite the midterms being run on a more national level, Long Island’s local politics shone through and made New York a much redder picture than many expected.
While we still maintain the race is competitive, we do think Romaine is favored to be Suffolk’s next County Executive.
Ratings Changes
- Shelter Island Town Supervisor (Open-Siller): Safe Democrat → Leans Democrat
- Southampton Town Supervisor (Open-Schneiderman): Likely Democrat → Toss Up
Shelter Island Town Supervisor
We held this race as Safe Democratic until we had some more inside information. Outgoing Supervisor Gerold Siller (D) was primaried by Arnott Gordon Gooding, Jr. (D-Shelter Island Heights) this spring. Amber Brach-Williams (R), a Councilwoman of seven years on the Town Board, is running against Gooding.
Brach-Williams has served as Deputy Town Supervisor under supervisors of both parties. Her name recognition and multiple consecutive victories make us think she’s a strong candidate who has also had a head start on the campaign trail since Gooding had to go through a primary earlier this year.
Shelter Island is difficult to politically handicap. In addition to its unique type of elected officials and candidates, as well as its tendencies to cross-endorse candidates on a perennial basis, retail politics also goes a much longer way here. The tiny island of just 3,200 people makes it easy to become intimately familiar with each resident and their concerns.
We think that due to intrinsic lean, Gooding has a slight upper hand, but a Brach-Williams victory on Shelter Island would not be a shock.
Southold resident and 2022 Assembly candidate Peter Ganley (R-Cutchogue) gave his thoughts: “Amber Brach-Williams transcends political lines. Shelter Island residents trust her commitment to service and she has the experience necessary for the town’s top job.”
Southampton Town Supervisor
While Southampton leans Democratic on a fundamental level, there is a strong working-class population west of the Shinnecock Canal. A hot Legislative race is already brewing here, with Manny Vilar (R-Springs) waging a strong uphill battle for the seat being vacated by Legislator Bridget Fleming (D-Noyac).
Furthermore, the seat of Town Supervisor is open as incumbent Jay Schneiderman (D) is term-limited. While Southampton already has a tendency to elect Republicans on the local level, what’s really changed the race is Newsday’s endorsement of Cyndi McNamara (R-East Quogue), a current Town Board member. The Messenger did not make an endorsement since we don’t specifically cover the area.
We think that with the added attention on the South Fork this year, along with an estimated strong Republican turnout from the west side of the Canal, McNamara has a real shot at flipping this seat. While Vilar is considered the underdog in his corresponding Legislative race, any extra momentum he can receive will likely help McNamara over the finish line.
A Final Look at the Remaining Competitive Races
In the Legislature, seven of the eighteen seats are broadly considered at least somewhat competitive.
Perhaps the most engaged race is the Huntington-based Sixteenth District, where freshman Legislator Manuel Esteban, Sr., (R-East Northport) finds himself in a competitive race against Rebecca Sanin (D-Huntington Station). Esteban’s original opponent, Sidney Joyner (D-Huntington) was removed from the ballot for not fulfilling the residency requirements to run in the district. Sanin was placed on the ballot in the eleventh hour.
The temporary hiccup to the race might have helped Esteban retain some support, but he’s still not out of the woods yet. Esteban’s district is one that is more Democratic, but his unique position within the Suffolk GOP might help him get the crossover support he needs.
In the Patchogue-based Seventh District, freshman Legislator Dominick Thorne (R-Patchogue) is facing union representative Ryan McGarry (D-Patchogue). Although Patchogue is home to a younger, more progressive voting age, Thorne has remained in touch with the district’s diverse, working-class neighborhoods.
Republicans are eyeing three seats to flip in this year’s races: the North Fork-based First, the Port Jefferson-based Fifth, and the Rocky Point-based Sixth.
In the First District, the North Fork’s deep Republican roots might be more on display this year than they have in the past, mainly due to strong retail politics and home-rule messaging. Outgoing Legislator Al Krupski (D-Cutchogue) has represented this district for the past decade, winning by wide margins each time. His long-time legislative aide Catherine Stark (R-Riverhead) is making a real play for this district that covers five townships
In the Fifth District, Anthony Figliola (R-East Setauket) is hoping to make a tectonic shift in northeastern Brookhaven. The Fifth District notably contains Setauket, Port Jefferson, and Stony Brook, and has long been one of the most Democratic parts of Brookhaven. Margins for the Democrats slipped in the 2021 local elections and extra attention this year might be just what turns this area red.
Curiously, lawn signs bearing former Assemblyman Steve Englebright’s (D-Setauket) name tell voters to “re-elect” him to the Legislature. While Englebright technically would be re-elected to the Legislature, he’s not the incumbent, having left the body in 1992 after his election to the Assembly, where he remained until his upset defeat to Ed Flood (R-Port Jefferson Station) last year.
In the Sixth District, Chad Lennon (R-Rocky Point) is hoping to flip this seat red after twelve years of representation by Legislator Sarah Anker (D-Mt. Sinai). Anker won all but two of her elections by extremely close margins, so the environment this year, plus the dynamic of an open seat, might make it difficult for her chief of staff Dorothy Cavalier (D-Mt. Sinai) to keep it in the Democratic fold.
Outside the big-ticket races, there is another race that warrants watching: Brookhaven Town Council, District One. This is the only town-based election we find particularly engaged within our three townships of coverage. Political newcomer Gary Bodenburg (R-Port Jefferson) is hoping to take advantage of new political energy is his corner of town and ride the coattails of Ed Romaine and Anthony Figliola across the finish line against Councilman Jonathan Kornreich (D-Stony Brook), who was overwhelmingly elected in a 2021 special.
It’s difficult to characterize this race one way or the other. One thing that is certain, however, is that this will be a photo finish either way. Since the area of this district overlaps with the Fifth Legislative District, any and all down ballot energy either party can get will pay dividends, even if it translates to a margin of just a few votes.
Republicans appear dominant in the Riverhead and Islip Town Supervisor races. Islip Supervisor Angie Carpenter (R-West Islip) recently received the crucial endorsement of The Messenger, as well as that of Newsday, leading us to believe she has had a successful enough tenure to deserve a third term.
While we retain Likely Republican ratings for Brookhaven Town Council District Four and Islip Town Council District Three, neither race appears to have become significantly engaged and we will maintain these ratings through the election.
A Final Look at the Safe Races
Republicans remain safe bets in eight districts: Three, Four, Eight, Ten, Eleven, Twelve, Thirteen, and Fourteen. Meanwhile, Sam Gonzalez (D-Brentwood) is the sole Democrat we find to be a safe bet for re-election.
In Smithtown, all races deserve a rating of Safe Republican:
- Town Council: incumbents Tom Lohmann (R-Smithtown) and Lisa Inzerillo (R-Kings Park)
- Receiver of Taxes: Deanna Varricchio (R-St. James)
- Town Clerk: (open), Tom McCarthy (R-Smithtown).
In Brookhaven, the following races hold a rating of Safe Republican
- Town Council: Districts Two, Three, Five, and Six
- Receiver of Taxes: Lou Marcoccia (R-East Setauket)
- Town Supervisor: open, Dan Panico (R-Center Moriches)
In Islip, the following races hold a rating of Safe Republican:
- Town Clerk: (open), Linda Vavricka (R-East Islip)
- Town Council, District Four: Councilman John Lorenzo (R-West Sayville)
- Receiver of Taxes: Andy Wittman (R-Sayville)
Finally, Democrats are a safe bet to retain the town supervisorship in East Hampton.
Top Races to Watch
- Suffolk Legislature, District Five
- Brookhaven Town Council, District One
- Suffolk Legislature, District Sixteen
- Suffolk Legislature, District Six
- Suffolk Legislature, District One
- Southampton Town Supervisor
- Shelter Island Town Supervisor
