Preliminary 2026 House Forecast: Democrats’ Best Paths
We’re reviving our Down Ballot column to prognosticate how the race for the House majority develops over the next nine months. Republicans start with a 220-seat quorum, just two seats north of what’s required for a majority: 218 seats. Democrats need only a net gain of three seats to retake control of the chamber, which they lost in 2022.
For the sake of this column, we’ll be looking at each state for the Democrats’ best paths to a majority. In an ensuing column, we’ll analyze the Republicans’ best hopes of flipping seats, if not holding the House majority outright, a statistical rarity that would be a massive upheaval of conventional political wisdom.
Our current forecast shows neither party projected to take control, but Democrats remain slightly closer to the magic number of 218. They sit at 213 seats, while the GOP sits at 208. We currently rate 14 seats as Toss Ups.
Legend: Safe R/Safe D – the darkest colors represent districts that The Messenger does not currently find competitive. Respective parties should cruise to victory and by large margins.
Likely R/Likely D – The medium colors represent districts that we find potentially competitive or susceptible to margin slips. Respective parties should win these seats, but upsets and the chances of a developed race remain on the table.
Leans R/Leans D – The light blue/pink colors show districts that are certainly competitive, but one party has a distinct set of advantages. These races are the ones to keep an eye on, as they could move further to the center of the competitive table, or off completely depending on the environment, funding, and candidate quality.
Tilts R/Tilts D – The palest colors, these districts are in the eye of the hurricane, but one party has an advantage that cannot be overlooked.
Toss Up – It all comes down to these. Neither party has a distinct advantage.
The Usual Suspects
The seats we consider “the usual suspects” are those that aren’t necessarily guaranteed to flip, but usually fit a criteria that makes it easy to guess. Think of them as the horses on the track with low payouts.
These seats, we find, follow a typical pattern: they’re not markedly more right or left of center – practically in the middle, what pure swing seats are made of; they’re seats that have changed parties hands at least twice in the last few years, or otherwise perennially contentious; and are crossover seats – those that backed one party for president and another for House.
Bonus points are added to any of the above if said seats are open – without an incumbent – or have a rematch of the previous cycle. Half-rematches are also common “usual suspects”, one in which the victor of the previous cycle does not run, and last cycle’s challenger tries again for the seat.
The vast majority of these seats, save for those significantly affected by redistricting, are the center of the competitive table for all or most of these reasons.
Arizona
A swing state by every metric, Arizona will be home to at least three competitive seats this year. In the Phoenix suburbs, AZ-01 was once a safe-red seat that’s raced to the left in the Trump Era. Congressman Dave Schweikert (R) narrowly survived the 2022 midterms and had a stronger showing in 2024, but Schweikert is retiring from Congress to run for governor. The open seat without presidential coattails in a midterm environment that will be at least blue-leaning makes for a competitive race. Forecast: Toss Up
In the southeastern corner of the state, AZ-06 takes in Tucson and heavily unionized Greenlee County. Congressman Juan Ciscomani (R) has won two razor-thin races here, flipping the seat red in 2022. He’ll be in the re-election fight of his life this year, as Democrats flipped this area’s seat blue in the 2018 midterms – and it won’t take a blue wave of that magnitude to flip it back. Forecast: Toss Up
AZ-02 is a sprawling district that takes in almost the entire northern two-thirds of the state. Congressman Eli Crane (R) knocked off a moderate Democrat in 2022 and held the seat by a decent margin in 2024. While the more Republican of the Arizona trio, Democrats are sure to target this seat that has parts of suburban Phoenix as well as the state’s entire section of the Navajo Nation. Forecast: Leans R
Alaska
Alaska’s sole House seat was flipped blue in a 2022 special election for the first time in over fifty years. Then-Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) held on in the ranked-choice election in 2022, but narrowly lost in 2024. Peltola might be eying a bid for statewide office, but Alaska’s idiosyncratic politics and penchant for local Democrats will likely keep this seat in the center of the table. Forecast: Toss Up
California
Proposition 50 passed last year, meaning the state is now heavily gerrymandered to benefit Democrats. The former red seats CA-01 (Safe D Flip) and CA-41 (Safe D Flip) are now solidly blue, while CA-03 went from a Likely R district to a Likely D Flip district. Congressman Darrell Issa (R) will be in a tough fight to win in his redrawn San Diego-based CA-48, although it’s possible he threads the needle. We’re holding that race at Tilts D (Flip). Two tossups remain in the Central Valley, with CA-13 (Toss Up) being one of the closest House races in 2022 and 2024, and with CA-22 (Toss Up) being held by notable maverick Congressman David Valadao (R), who has been able to win in tough environments for his party.
Colorado
One of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities lies just north of Denver in CO-08. The district was created in 2022 and won by Democrats that year. However, Gabe Evans (R), in a razor-thin contest, wrested the seat away in 2024. The district is about 30% Latino, so it will be a crucial indicator of whether the GOP has been able to retain Latino voters they courted in 2024. Other House races in Colorado seem inelastic at the moment, but the western third of the state is in CO-03, an amalgam of ritzy, uber-liberal ski resorts, small mountain towns, and a sizable working-class Latino population. CO-03 has been a wild card before, and it could be again. Forecast: Tilts D (Flip)
Florida
The GOP stands atop a brutal gerrymander that gives the Democrats just eight seats out of twenty-eight. Democrats will look to the Pinellas Peninsula, home to St. Petersburg, to flip a seat that we rate as Leans R, but a race could certainly develop.
Iowa
Two seats here will help define the next House. We think three-term Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) starts as an underdog in the bluest of the four Iowa districts – IA-01 – in the southeastern corner of the state. Miller-Meeks won one of the closest House races in U.S. history in 2020, clinching the win by a margin of just 6 votes out of over 400,000 ballots cast. 2024 was also a photo finish, leading us to believe this is one of Democrats’ most auspicious pickups this year. Forecast: Tilts D (Flip)
Next door, IA-03, held by two-term Congressman Zach Nunn (R), will also be a top seat to watch. We rate that one as a Toss Up.
Michigan
The GOP has two seats we rate as Toss Ups; the suburban-Detroit based MI-10 (Toss Up) and the Lansing-based MI-07 (Toss Up). MI-10 is open, meaning this could be more competitive than normal, while MI-07 is a classic swing seat. MI-10 was last open in 2022, when John James (R) won the open seat by a razor-thin margin. He had scored a more decisive margin in 2024, but he’s foregoing re-election to run for governor of Michigan. The GOP only flipped MI-07 in 2024. A district that was once more traditionally Republican backed a Democrat in the House in the three prior elections.
Montana
Montana regained its second House seat in 2022, which has played host to two competitive races. Congressman Ryan Zinke (R), who served as Secretary of the Interior in Donald Trump’s (R-FL) first term, is a controversial figure. In a perfect storm, Democrats could contest this seat. We rate it more severely for the Republicans than other outlets, holding at a Tilt R rating.
New Jersey
Democrats are undoubtedly keen on NJ-07, especially after their stellar performance in 2025’s gubernatorial race. NJ-07 covers the northwestern part of the state along the Pennsylvania border. A red seat by nature, it’s not a deep-red seat, nor is it one Republicans have held for some time. An ancestrally red area of the Garden State, NJ-07 flipped blue in 2018, and Republicans clawed in back in 2022. However, Congressman Tom Kean, Jr.’s (R) margins here should make the GOP go all in on protecting him this fall. Forecast: Tilts R.
New York
Democrats’ top choice seat is NY-17, a Westchester-based seat held by moderate Congressman Mike Lawler (R). Lawler flipped it red in 2022 and was re-elected by an impressive margin in 2024, even as his fellow Upstate and Hudson Valley Republicans lost re-election. Lawler shouldn’t be underestimated, but we think he’s better positioned for re-election than other Republicans in swing districts, primarily because this area has a penchant for being a crossover district. Forecast: Leans R.
On Long Island, Democrats might be keen to oust two-term Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) in NY-01, a district that under the right circumstances could be picked up by Democrats. But LaLota hasn’t been an inactive Congressman and Suffolk still sits obdurately right-of-center. We rate this seat as Likely R.
Pennsylvania
Democrats lost two seats here in 2024 and could claw them back in 2026, as well as another. PA-07 (Tilts D Flip) includes Allentown, situated in the 26%-Hispanic Lehigh County. Congressman Ryan Mackenzie (R) won by just a single percentage point last year. Just to the north, PA-08 (Toss Up) encompasses Scranton, the mining town of Wilkes-Barre, and the blue-collar workers who were classically Democrats. This district was won by Trump in all three of his presidential runs, but only in 2024 were Republicans able to knock off a moderate Democrat.
Additionally, PA-10, based around Harrisburg, presents itself as a top pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. Our forecast for this seat is Tilts D (Flip), as Congressman Scott Perry (R) has had several controversial years on social media and the district continues to drift left.
Utah
Nothing in terms of competition this year in Utah, but Democrats are certain to pick up UT-01 (Safe D Flip), a district that was court-ordered to be redrawn around deep-blue Salt Lake City.
Virginia
The Hampton Roads-Virginia Beach-based VA-02 is a prime swing district. An ancestrally red district, VA-02 flipped blue in 2018, but flipped red in 2022. Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (R) will be in the re-election fight of her life this fall, especially as the region continues to shift left. Forecast: Toss Up
Democrats could also reasonably contest the northern Hampton Roads-based VA-01 (Likely R), a seat that in 2021 was drawn to be less Republican than it had been. VA-05 (Likely R), containing Richmond suburbs and the cities of Charlottesville, Danville, and Lynchburg, is also inching more towards the center of the competitive table, but remains a reach.
Wisconsin
WI-03 is set to be one of the marquee congressional races this cycle. The western-Wisconsin seat, containing the Dairyland and deep-blue working-class communities, has raced to the right in the Trump Era. Despite backing a moderate Democrat by hefty margins, the district went for Trump in 2016. In 2022, the GOP flipped the open seat, but it remains at the center of the table and will be a litmus test of whether Democrats can take back an ancestrally blue seat that has become a red seat in the Trump Era. Forecast: Tilts R.
The suburban Milwaukee-based WI-01 (Likely R), containing Kenosha, also remains competitive, but Democrats would be wise to fixate on WI-03.
Here’s the Count
Our current forecast, albeit preliminary, gives Democrats 214 seats to the GOP’s 206. The Toss Up column has 15 seats, 10 of which are held by Democrats, 5 by Republicans. The common jumping-off point is to split the Toss Ups down the middle and see where the cards rest. If the aforementioned seats flip as currently speculated and Toss Ups are split down the middle, Democrats getting the larger half of an odd number since this year is expected to benefit them on historic grounds, the Party of Jackson would flip control of the House with a 224-seat margin.
There’s certainly room for that to change, and without much in terms of fundraising and polling, long before primaries have been held, there’s likely room for this forecast to change as well.
