With just about a month left until Election Day, The Messenger has collected more information on the Suffolk County elections and we’re ready to unveil ratings changes for this month.
Current Rankings at a Glance
The tables at the bottom of pages 12 and 13 display our current race ratings for the seven Town Supervisor races on the ballot this year, as well as eighteen Suffolk County Legislature seats.
A “Safe” rating indicates that these seats are not competitive and are viewed as a “safe bet” for the incumbent party.
A “Likely” rating means that these seats are at the fringe of competition and have the potential to become more engaged. For the incumbent party, this means that the seat is fairly safe but still warrants watching. Additionally, this includes our mindfulness of watching the margins on election night, as margins in seats with this rating might be thinner than usual. For the non-incumbent party, a “Likely” rating means that the race is fairly certain to flip.
A “Leans” rating means that while one party has a distinct advantage, this is a competitive and engaged race.
A “Toss Up” rating means no party has a clear advantage and this race could easily go either way.
Currently, we rate the County Executive race as “Likely Republican,” on the grounds that Brookhaven Town Supervisor (R-Center Moriches) Ed Romaine will end the GOP drought in Suffolk and use his long-storied and well-respected political career to flip control of the office.
We rate eight County Legislature seats as “Safe Republican,” creating a large hurdle for Democrats to clear if they expect to recapture control of the body. Only one seat is ranked as “Safe Democrat.” We currently expect the GOP to flip two Legislative seats: the First and Fifth Districts.
In the First District, we previously discussed our belief that Catherine Stark (R-Riverhead) is favored to flip this seat, not only due to Ed Romaine’s previous representation of the area and his expected down ballot energy from the top of the ticket, but also the fundamentally Republican nature of the district. Stark is also a legislative aide to Al Krupski (D-Cutchogue), whose moderate brand of politics has understated the deep-red roots of the North Fork. The district includes parts of eastern Brookhaven, northern Southampton, all of Riverhead, Southold, and Shelter Island.
In the Fifth District, we boldly moved the race to favor Anthony Figliola (R-East Setauket), who unsuccessfully ran for the Republican Primary in the First Congressional District election in 2022. This time, Figliola is eyeing one of the most quickly-changing areas of Suffolk County: northwestern Brookhaven, anchored by traditionally blue areas of Stony Brook, Setauket, and Port Jefferson. Former Assemblyman Steve Englebright (D-Setauket) is running for another stint in the Legislature after previously serving there in the 1980s-1990s, and then as an Assemblyman from 1992 until his 2022 defeat by Ed Flood (R-Port Jefferson Station).
We only expect one Town Supervisorship to change hands: Southold, based on Legislator Al Krupski’s (D-Cutchogue) moderate record and well-respected career on the North Fork. The other six Town Supervisor races appear mostly safe for either party, with three favoring the GOP and three favoring the Democrats.
Additionally, only three town council districts warrant less-than-safe ratings. In Brookhaven, the Setauket-based First District has a rating of “Leans Democrat,” based on the traditionally Democratic hue this area of Suffolk tends to display. We think, however, incumbent Jonathan Kornreich (D-Stony Brook) is in for a race against political newcomer Gary Bodenburg (R-Port Jefferson).
Brookhaven’s Fourth Council District is currently rated as “Likely Republican,” based on the Republican-leaning environment, Ed Romaine’s expected down ballot coattails to fellow Republicans, and Councilman Michael Loguercio’s (R-Ridge) three terms of incumbency. This slightly-Democratic district was narrowly flipped by Loguercio in 2015. He was re-elected in 2019 by just five points.
Finally, in Islip, the Third District boasts a “Likely Republican” ranking, as this is the first election in which Islip’s newly-drawn districts will have elected respective councilmembers. Members of the Town Council were previously elected in an at-large councilmanic system until a 2018 lawsuit overturned the system and led to the institution of drawn council districts. The Third District, represented by term-limited Councilman John Cochrane (R-Brightwaters) is being contested by Mike McElwee (R) and former Assemblywoman Christine Pellegrino (D).
The Third District stretches from Islip hamlet to West Islip and reaches up to Baywood. Bay Shore, Brightwaters, and West Bay Shore are also included in the district. We believe the politically swingy neighborhoods, the bluer areas near Brentwood, and the open-seat status of this district gives Democrats an outside chance at capturing it.
Ratings Changes
Southold Town Supervisor (Open-Russell): Leans Democrat → Likely Democrat (Flip)
Suffolk Leg. District 6 (Open-Anker): Toss Up → Leans Republican (Flip)
Suffolk leg. District 17 (Donnelly): Safe Democrat → Leans Democrat
Southold Town Supervisor
In Southold, we believe Al Krupski is firmly in the driver’s seat. While not in our immediate district coverage, we still believe handicapping this race on some level is pertinent to our coverage of the race for the County’s First Legislative District. Krupski, a well-known moderate Democrat – or considered conservative in some circles – is forgoing a final term in the Legislature to run for this seat. Southold, despite a Republican bastion on the North Fork, does have a penchant for electing Democrats in some positions. Krupski leveraged his past in town government to win landslide elections to the Legislature.
Suffolk County Legislature – District Six
In the Sixth District for the Suffolk Legislature, we believe political newcomer Chad Lennon (R-Rocky Point) is primed to flip this deeply-Republican territory that, since 2012, has been represented by Sarah Anker (D-Mt. Sinai). Anker is term-limited, giving Democrats an uphill climb to hold this seat that, like the First District, has anomalously been in their corner for the past decade.
Anker has been no stranger to competitive races, with only her 2017 and 2019 elections resulting in larger, though not landslide, victories. In 2021, she won the lion’s share of absentee ballots to hold her seat by just sixty-three votes out of nearly 17,000 ballots cast between her and her GOP opponent. A Conservative candidate ran a third-party campaign that took eight percent of the vote, essentially spoiling it for the GOP. Anker’s seat was the tipping-point seat for a GOP supermajority that year. This year, it seems that the GOP will have no trouble flipping this seat, as Anker’s incumbency will not be a factor in a ruby-red part of Suffolk County.
Anker’s chief of staff, Dorothy Cavalier (D-Mt. Sinai), is carrying the Democratic and Working Families line in this election, but the political environment and geography benefit her opponent, Chad Lennon, a former active-duty Marine and current reservist, as well as a practitioner of military and Veterans law.
The Sixth District contains a mix of working-class suburbs and upscale communities on the North Shore. It retains some bluer aspects from neighboring Port Jefferson, namely by containing Mt. Sinai and Miller Place. The District includes redder hamlets like Middle Island, Shoreham, Rocky Point, Yaphank, Ridge, Sound Beach, and East Shoreham.
Suffolk County Legislature – District Seventeen
In the Seventeenth District, we previously wrote that incumbent Legislator Tom Donnelly (D-Deer Park) had no opponent. We previously corrected our mistakes but did not update our ratings change. Donnelly faces Catherine Corella (R-Deer Park), a businesswoman, founder of the Deer Park Chamber of Commerce, and candidate for Babylon Town Supervisor in 2021. We have moved the race from “Safe Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
We believe Donnelly to be in the driver’s seat just due to the nature of this district’s blue-leaning hamlets. However, Donnelly is by no means a safe bet. After winning by two-to-one margins in 2017 and 2019, he posted just a nine-point margin against Stephen Becker (R) in 2021. With the current environment, it’s possible Corella could upset him, but Donnelly seems to have a slight advantage. We do believe his margin will rest somewhere between five and ten points.
The Seventeenth District spans from northwestern Islip, through northern Babylon, and takes in a bit of southern Huntington. Specifically, the district includes Deer Park, Dix Hills, Melville, and North Bay Shore.
