National
The nationwide redistricting “arms race” continues as the Supreme Court has allowed California’s gerrymandered map to stand for the 2026 midterms.
Golden State voters initiated the map in November by approving Proposition 50, also known as the Election Rigging Response Act, by a 64%-35% margin. The map was the response to Texas Republicans’ gerrymander at the urging of President Donald Trump (R-FL), who has also applied pressure to Republican state legislatures to redraw their maps to improve the GOP’s chances of retaining control of the House.
Historically, the presidential party suffers losses in the lower chamber in the midterm elections.
Proposition 50 gerrymandered the safe Republican CA-01 and Republican-leaning CA-03 into safe Democratic seats. It also dismantled the Riverside-based CA-41 into a dense, Los Angeles-based district, and made the ancestrally red San Diego-based CA-48 into a swing seat.
The Supreme Court denied an emergency request from the California Republican Party to block the redraw, arguing that the map violated the Constitution as a racial gerrymander. The Supreme Court has already ruled that Texas’ map can stand for the 2026 elections.
The 2026 House retirement wave continues to grow, as three more Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026.
Congressmen Neal Dunn (R, FL-02), Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16), and Barry Loudermilk (R, GA-11) this week announced their retirements. All represent safe Republican districts, although Buchanan’s Sarasota-Bradenton-based district could see a possible race develop. He was re-elected in FL-16 by about twenty points in 2024.
The overall retirement list grows to twenty-nine Republicans and twenty-two Democrats, eclipsing a near-record as about 10% of the quorum is foregoing re-election.
The Democratic Primary to fill now-Governor Mikie Sherrill’s (D-NJ) former congressional seat saw an upset of its own in terms of internal politics. Sherrill had been re-elected to the North Jersey seat by a strong fifteen-point margin in 2024.
Former Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) was eying a comeback and was the ostensible frontrunner out of the gate. However, Malinowski lost support after he said he’d be open to “conditioning aid to Israel.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), who had previously supported Malinowski, went on a $2.3 million ad blitz to tie Malinowski to Trump.
The crowded field of thirteen Democrats produced Analilia Mejia (D), the dark horse progressive candidate with the backing of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14). Mejia defeated Malinowski and the entire field with 29.1% of the vote and is the prohibitive favorite to win the special election.
In local elections, Democrats scored a significant overperformance that adds to their track record since 2025. Chastity Martinez (D) held a State House seat in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, one that had been uncontested by the GOP in 2023. However, the seat had backed President Trump in the 2024 election by a 56%-43% margin.
Martinez won the seat with 62% of the vote.
Democrats also overperformed in a Virginia House election on Tuesday night. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker (D) won the open seat in an Alexandria-based district with 83.3% of the vote, slightly more than the 2023 margin of 78%.
In Oklahoma, Democrats overperformed yet again, despite falling short of flipping a deep-red just west of Tulsa. Dillon Travis (R) prevailed for the open State House seat, capturing 64.2% of the vote. However, Democrats did not contest the seat in 2024, and in 2022, the Republican candidate won with 78% of the vote.
State
The Siena College released their latest poll on February 3, finding Governor Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) with the best-ever favorability rating found in the survey.
Hochul’s rating sits at 49%-40%, the highest she has been rated as found by Siena. The rating is up from December’s 43%-41%. Hochul’s job approval rating sits at a wider 54%-41% margin.
For the 2026 gubernatorial election, the Republican frontrunner is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach). The College found his favorability rating at 18%-20%, slightly improved from December’s 13%-17% rating. The small numbers on both sides of the equation reflect Blakeman’s relative lack of name recognition.
The College also found that Hochul leads Blakeman in a hypothetical general election matchup to the tune of 54%-28% – a 26-point margin. For context, Hochul was elected in 2022 over Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) by a 6.5-point margin.
Hochul’s main primary challenger, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) overwhelmingly trails Hochul in the June Democratic Primary. Hochul’s lead sits at 64%-11%, much improved from the 56%-13% spread found in December. Delgado’s favorability rating sits at 21%-18%, a contrast to his underwater 13%-17% rating clocked in December.
“Nine months from election day, Blakeman – largely unknown to three in five New York voters – has his work cut out for him. Hochul’s 79%-8% lead among Democrats is significantly better than Blakeman’s 69%-15% lead with Republicans, and she leads 41%-34% with Independents, as well as in every region of the state,” said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg in a statement. “Against Delgado, among Democrats, Hochul has at least 60% support in every region of the state, as well as the support of 68% of self-described liberals and 65% of moderates.”
Hochul also enjoys positive marks from Democrats, Republicans, and Independents on eliminating State incomes taxes on the first $25,000 earned in tips – a page from President Trump’s economic playbook that she had first criticized – increasing childcare funding by $1.7 billion, and providing $30 million in direct payments to farmers to offset rising costs due to tariffs, according to Hochul.
All three demographics also approve of Hochul’s policy to ensure that immigration enforcement cannot target immigrants whose only crime is being in the country illegally in sensitive locations without a judicial warrant.
Republicans disapprove of Hochul’s policy (44%-41%) to allow New Yorkers to bring State-level actions against federal officers who citizens claim have violated their constitutional rights, and they also disapprove (45%-38%) of Hochul’s plan to require the State Department of Health to “develop New York’s own immunization requirements for school eligibility and insurance coverage.”
Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) approval rating in the Empire State sits at 28%-67%. Voters do support deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally (43%-35%), but oppose the way ICE is carrying out those measures (61%-29%).
President Trump’s favorability in New York, Siena College found, sits at 33%-63%, little changed from December. His job approval rating is 34%-63%, also unchanged from last year. 54% of respondents “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s job performance, the highest ever found in a Siena poll.
Independents support Democrats in the 2026 generic congressional ballot 46%-29%.
This poll was conducted January 26-28 among 802 registered New York voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.
Local
The Suffolk County Water Authority (SCWA) has repaired 219 main breaks since the deep freeze set in since December.
Repair crews have repaired or monitored main breaks in Lindenhurst, West Islip, Bay Shore, Islip Terrace, Coram, Ridge, and Sound Beach. SCWA technicians are braving sub-zero temperatures and ice to maintain water services to 1.2 million customers.
In January alone, 121 repairs, including a peak of 44 breaks handled during the second week of the month, have been conducted. In a press release, the SCWA noted that the high volume is attributed to the “deep freezes, where the frost line penetrates deep into the ground, causing soil to shift and putting immense thermal stress on older cast iron pipes.”
The SCWA has stayed ahead of the issue by replacing about twenty miles of aging water mains each year. The public-benefit corporation utilizes a new “ductile iron pipe, a modern material far less prone to the brittle fractures common in older infrastructure during the winter months.” They note that by targeting areas with high reoccurrences of breaks, the SCWA can get ahead of the problems to improve long-term reliability.
”The work our crews are performing right now is truly heroic,” said SCWA Chairman Charlie Lefkowitz in a statement. “Maintaining our distribution system in these harsh weather conditions isn’t just part of the job; it’s a service to the community that requires incredible physical stamina and sacrifice. Our team has been in the trenches every single day this winter, often through the night, to ensure that when our customers turn on their taps, the water is there.”
SCWA CEO Jeff Szabo added that their employees brave the brutal conditions because they know the community “depends on them.”
“We made a commitment to provide high-quality water and exceptional service, and that commitment is most visible during these winter emergencies,” said Szabo in a statement. “I want to thank our dedicated staff for their continued perseverance and for everything they do to keep Suffolk County running through this deep freeze.”
The SCWA Customer Contact Center will be open for additional hours in the morning during the cold spell to address the increased rate of service disruptions.
