National
Israel has struck Gaza just a week into the ceasefire deal brokered by President Donald Trump (R-FL) with aid from Middle Eastern stakeholders, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt.
The Israeli military has accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire over the weekend. The IDF released a statement on Sunday that said that Hamas “terrorists fired an anti-tank missile gunfire toward IDF troops operating to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in the Rafah area, in Southern Gaza, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement.”
The IDF said in the same statement that they are striking the region to “dismantle tunnel shafts and military structures used for terrorist activity.”
Hamas, meanwhile, claims they have “no knowledge” of the attacks, saying in a statement, “we affirm our full commitment to implementing everything that has been agreed upon, foremost among which is the ceasefire in all areas of the Gaza Strip. We have no knowledge of any events or clashes taking place in the Rafah area.”
Reuters has reported that Hamas has executed at least thirty-three people within the first few days of the ceasefire. Israeli sources claim that those casualties were of families who are believed to have collaborated with Israel or its allied militias.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says that Hamas might be on the brink of breaking the peace agreement by attacking the Palestinian people.
“This planned attack against Palestinian civilians would constitute a direct and grave violation of the ceasefire agreement and undermine the significant progress achieved through mediation efforts,” said the DHS in a statement. “The guarantors demand Hamas uphold its obligations under the ceasefire terms. The United States and the other guarantors remain resolute in our commitment to ensuring the safety of civilians, maintaining calm on the ground and advancing peace and prosperity for the people of Gaza and the region as a whole.”
President Trump wrote on X, “If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them.”
Meanwhile, in Virginia, Democrats are grappling with the leaked text messages of Virginia Attorney General candidate Jay Jones (D), which have thrown the crucial, concurrent gubernatorial race into turmoil.
Jason Miyares (R-VA) won a razor-thin election to flip this seat in 2021. Polls had him trailing behind Jones until the messages came out.
Text messages from August 2022 have surfaced showing Jones fantasizing about shooting then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R).
“Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, Hitler, and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head,” Jones wrote to his colleague, State Delegate Carrie Coyner (R), who told Jones, “please stop.”
“Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time,” Jones continued over text.
Jones reportedly continued the tirade to Coyner over the phone, saying that the deaths of Gilbert’s children might cause the then-Speaker to reassess his political views.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA), the Republican candidate in the gubernatorial contest, wrote on X that the texts are “wholly disqualifying of someone running for an office that protects the people of Virginia.” She called for the entire Democratic Party and Abigail Spanberger to call on him to drop out of the race. Vice President J.D. (R-OH) has called for Jones to drop out as well.
Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is running to flip the seat blue. Various nuances govern Virginia gubernatorial races – turn to Page 14 for that – but Spanberger seems well-insulated against the October surprise. She continues to lead in the polls, although her leads have dwindled. The question now is, does she wait out the Jones controversy for a 50-50 shot at getting a political ally in Jones to Richmond with her, or does she call on him to drop out and risk a 100% chance of having a political adversary in incumbent Miyares alongside her.
As of now, her candidacy doesn’t seem terribly threatened by it, likely owing to its late-breaking timing in the campaign season.
Finally, in the ongoing redistricting “arms race”, the North Carolina Senate has passed a map that aims to help the GOP net an additional seat ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The GOP has already participated in rare mid-decade redistricting in Texas – which can net the party four or five seats – Missouri – another seat – while California is giving the proposition to voters this autumn as to whether a Legislature-drawn map should replace the current one passed by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) – which could net the Democrats four or five seats.
The North Carolina vote came just a day after debate formally started. The map targets NC-01, which contains the Inner Banks and Black Belt counties from the Virginia border to the Raleigh exurbs. It is the only competitive congressional district in the Tar Heel State, which itself stands as a crucial swing state at every level of government. About 40% of the district’s population is black.
Congressman Don Davis (D, NC-01) won a close race for the open seat in 2022. The state’s map was redrawn yet again before the 2024 elections, allowing Davis to win an even closer race last year, despite Trump winning the district by three points.
Mid-decade redistricting isn’t uncommon in North Carolina. A racial gerrymander was struck down ahead of the 2018 midterms. The state GOP redrew the map again following a court ruling. The regular redraw of the map after the 2020 Census was struck down as a partisan gerrymander. A special master drew a competitive map that saw a 7R-7D split in 2022. After the political composition of the State Supreme Court changed in 2023, the court reversed the prior decision and allowed the Legislature to pass a new map, which came online in 2024 and produced a 10R-4D delegation.
The new map now heads to the State House, where Democrats are in the minority. State law prevents Governor Josh Stein (D-NC) from veto redistricting bills, although litigation remains likely.
State
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) is hurdling towards the finish line to become the next Mayor of New York City.
The October 10-14 FOX News poll of 793 likely voters gave Mamdani his first majority poll since the general election sprint began and since incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (D-Brooklyn) ended his long-shot Independent campaign for a second term.
The majority mark is often seen as a crucial benchmark in a multi-candidate race. Although Mamdani has been handily leading this race all season, the plurality win versus a majority win is always given a slight form of credence from pollsters and analysts, only because less than the majority of the population’s electoral intentions can be tracked. If more voters turn out than expected, it’s plausible that a majority that has not been picked up by the polls at the race could technically, albeit unlikely, go another direction.
But Mamdani solidified 52% of the Big Apple vote last week, compared to 28% for Cuomo (D-Sutton Place), who is running as an Independent, and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa (R-Upper East Side), who clocks in third with just 14% of the vote. Mayor Adams still received 2%.
This is a stark contrast from the CBS News poll taken September 7-13, showing Mamdani at 43%, Cuomo at 28%, Sliwa at 15%, and Adams at 6%. The two can’t be exactly correlated, but it does show the trajectory of each candidate’s level of support.
However, the AARP poll taken October 14-15 shows Mamdani under that majority threshold at 43%, Cuomo at a little-changed 29%, and Sliwa boosting to 19%.
Most of the polls show a pattern: Mamdani leading the pack from the low-40s to a peak of 52%, Cuomo more or less hovering around the mid-20s, and Sliwa getting about 15% each time, but shooting much higher and lower depending on the survey.
Speaking of Sliwa, the staunch New Yorker is facing calls from his own party to drop out of the race, of fears that his candidacy is splitting the vote and will throw the election to Mamdani.
The New York Post’s Editorial Board and Republican billionaire John Catsimatidis, whose daughter is the Chair of the New York County Republican Party, have, among others, called on Sliwa to exit the race. Sliwa has earned the support of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-Plattsburgh), and Congressman Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River).
Local
Suffolk County’s bond rating just got an upgrade.
The ratings come from both Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings. The institutions have ranked Suffolk County’s bond rating AA-. They cite “sustained improvements in liquidity, growing reserves, and responsible long-term budgeting”, along with “strong management practices and historic levels of reserves and budgetary flexibility.”
“This upgrade is a resounding vote of confidence in Suffolk County’s fiscal turnaround,” said County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) in a statement. “Through careful planning, responsible budgeting, and a commitment to transparency, we’ve restored financial stability and positioned Suffolk County for a sustainable future. This means lower borrowing costs for critical infrastructure projects and long-term savings for the taxpayers.”
Suffolk’s general fund now sits at $276 million, or 10% of general fund spending. The County’s restricted reserves sit at $543 million for pensions, debt services, and other obligations.
S&P’s continued praise of Suffolk’s fiscal state includes a “large and diverse economy, above-average household incomes, and prudent financial performance.” Suffolk now holds record reserve balances exceeding 21% of operating revenues.
“This achievement is proof that collaboration works. This accomplishment belongs to the taxpayers,” said Presiding Officer Kevin McCaffrey (R-Lindenhurst) in a statement. “Their support for sound financial planning and infrastructure investment allows us to build a county government that protects their dollars, improves quality of life, and ensures Suffolk remains affordable for generations to come.”
The ratings will serve as a boon to Suffolk’s bonding interests, which often fund key capital projects at a reduced interest rate. The ratings will likely help fund a project $1.5 billion in infrastructure upgrades, particularly sewers and wastewater remediation projects.
