National
The political world received a tale of two primaries last week, one of no surprises, and one of small surprises
Of no surprises: Donald Trump (R-FL) cruised to victory in Saturday’s South Carolina Primary, soundly defeating native daughter, former Governor, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
As the lone challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination, Haley required a decent showing in her home state to continue her crusade against her former boss. While Haley has lost all contests thus far - Iowa, New Hampshire, and the U.S. Virgin Islands - as well as an embarrassing distant second-place finish to the “None of These Candidates” option in Nevada’s non-binding primary, she has found some pockets of success that serve more as a warning sign to Trump in the general election rather than trickles of success for her campaign.
There was little doubt from the beginning that Trump would rout Haley in her home state, namely due to the large concentration of white, working-class, low college-educated, and evangelical population that serves as a core facet of his populist base. However, Trump has shown weakness with suburbanites, urban voters, and college-educated voters, demographics Haley about broke even with Trump in Iowa and won decisively in the educated, classically liberal New Hampshire.
These results were mirrored in South Carolina, but relative to the state’s overall demographic makeup. As of press time, Trump won the primary with 59.8% of the vote to Haley’s 39.5% - a margin of about 150,000 votes out of about 750,000 cast. Other candidates received less than 1% of the statewide vote collectively, including Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley and Florida Air Force Major David Stuckenberg. Binkley suspended his campaign Tuesday night and endorsed Trump.
The first task for Trump: break 60% of the vote. With 59.8%, it’s just enough for him to have effectively completed this task. However, with a margin of about twenty points, Trump still underperformed the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate by about seven points and the RealClearPolitics average by three points.
The second task for Trump: appeal to the voters among whom he performs the weakest. Despite Trump’s victory in South Carolina, the geography of the win shows problems his campaign must address for the general election. While he cruised to victory in rural areas, the biggest regions to watch were the cities. South Carolina only has a few consequential urban areas, and none are large or Democratic enough to make the state healthily competitive. However, in a primary setting, it can reveal coalitions within a party. Haley easily won Columbia, the capital, and Charleston, the state’s largest cities. She was also able to win precincts in the northern cities of Greenville, Seneca, and Spartanburg, with smaller cities throughout the state, such as Camden and Florence, coming out for her.
Diving into the numbers, it also reveals additional problems for Trump. Trump crushed Haley among key demographics: low-income voters by forty-five points, areas with fewer college graduates by fifty-five points, and rural areas by forty points. Trump won suburban areas by eight points, which is decent but not strong enough to bode well in the context of the general election. He also won areas that went strong for Biden in 2020 by just two points.
Haley, on the other hand, won higher income areas by two points, areas with more college graduates by nine points, and urban areas by seven points. While her margins here are thin, it’s important to remember that South Carolina does not have nearly as many of these types of voters as the critical swing states and battlegrounds. So, while Trump might have done relatively well among these areas on Saturday, reflected against a national backdrop, he will need to court these voters much more effectively going forward.
This shows by her margins in the only three counties she was able to win. In Charleston County, home to Charleston, Haley won by twenty-four points. In Richland County, home to Columbia, she won by sixteen points, followed by Beaufort County, home to Beaufort and Hilton Head Island, where she won by eleven points.
Trump did not receive less than 57% of the vote in any of the state’s forty-three counties.
The county-level results mirror the results of the last two GOP primaries almost identically. Trump lost only Charleston and Richland counties in 2016, and Newt Gingrich (R-GA) lost the same three counties Trump lost Saturday to Mitt Romney (R-MA) in 2012.
Trump received forty-seven of South Carolina’s delegates, while Haley received three. Nevertheless, Haley has pledged to continue on in the fight in hopes of delivering decent results in college-educated, classically liberal states like Vermont and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday.
Moving north to the site of Tuesday night’s primary in Michigan, Trump was yet again able to deal another blow to Haley, but some of his problems are still in motion.
Trump managed a 68.2% blowout to Haley’s 26.5%. In Michigan, voters are treated to the “Uncommitted” option, a ballot position that essentially serves as an opposition vote. This option received just 3% of the statewide vote. About 1.1 million ballots were cast and Trump’s margin sits at over 450,000 votes. Trump also swept all eighty-three of Michigan’s counties. His thinnest margin was that of five points in Washtenaw County, home to Ann Arbor. Trump scored margins in excess of twenty points in Ingham, Kalamazoo, and Kent (Grand Rapids) Counties, and did not fall below 61% in any other county.
Intraparty fighting within the Michigan GOP has led to just a fraction of the state’s fifty-five delegates being awarded Tuesday night. Trump appears to have won nine delegates, while Haley will win two. Trump’s performance in Michigan consolidates his support among working-class voters and is his best primary performance to date where Haley was on the ballot.
Despite his large win, Trump still underperformed the FiveThirtyEight polling average by about ten points.
On the Democratic side, however, a more startling picture materialized. While President Biden (D-DE) easily won Michigan, he was delivered a clear message about the United States’ stance on the Israeli-Palestine War. Just three weeks ago, a campaign called Listen to Michigan staged an effort to convince Michiganders to protest vote against Biden with the “Uncommitted” option, in hopes of rebuking the president on his actions with Israel.
Michigan has more Arab-Americans than any other state in the country, and their voting blocs wield significant power in areas like Dearborn. Despite Biden calling for a ceasefire and his admonishment of Israel’s actions, it did not spare him the chagrin of nearly 100,000 voters. Listen to Michigan hoped to achieve just 10,000 votes in the primary, mirroring Trump’s margin of victory against Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in 2016. They greatly outperformed their goal, taking 13.3% of the statewide vote to Biden’s 81.1%.
The initiative was not just well-received in Dearborn’s Wayne County, where the “Uncommitted” option received 17% of the vote, but the option received double-digit support in nearly all of Michigan’s counties. Dearborn itself gave the “Uncommitted” option 56% of the vote.But it’s not just Dearborn and Arab-American communities where Biden has problems. College towns full of young progressives who have soured on Biden’s policy in Gaza joined the resistance effort as well. In Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, the “Uncommitted” option won 19% of the vote. In East Lansing, home to Michigan State University, “Uncommitted” received 15% of the vote.
The initiative has expanded to Minnesota, home to the nation’s largest percentage of Somali-Americans, as well as Washington, home to large swaths of progressive voters.
Michigan was a massive hurdle for Biden, and while he cleared it at face value in terms of winning the primary, it shows a large schism within the party that is likely to coalesce into the rest of the nominating contest.
Moreover, Congressman Dean Phillips (D, MN-03) finished in last place, defeated by the ghost of self-help author Marianne Williamson (D-CA), who suspended her campaign on February 7.
Trump now sits at 119 delegates to Haley’s 22. Biden has 177 delegates while his opponents have none.
State
Governor Kathy Hochul (D) announced $20 million in state funding to go to seven New York counties and New York City to improve emergency communications.New York City will receive $3 million in funding to upgrade and improve the National Interoperability Channels. The counties of Cattaraugus, Chenango, Dutchess, Genesee, Livingston, Schoharie, and Washington are the seven other counties that will receive funding through the program. The funding can be used to upgrade radio communications, improve interregional emergency preparedness, and first-responder training. The funding is administered by the State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services (DHSES) under the 2023 Statewide Interoperable Communications Grant (SICG) Targeted Grant Program.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) was appointed to the Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces. The subcommittee “exercises oversight and legislative jurisdiction over the U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, Navy Reserve equipment, and maritime programs. The Subcommittee also oversees Navy and Marine Corps acquisition programs and accounts related to shipbuilding and conversion, reconnaissance and surveillance, tanker, and airlift aircraft, ship and submarine-launched weapons, ammunition, and other procurements.”
“As a Navy Veteran and former Surface Warfare Officer, I am honored to be appointed to the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee,” said LaLota, a Navy Veteran and member of the House Armed Services Committee. “I look forward to applying my experiences on three overseas deployments to this important subcommittee,” said LaLota. “In a world with growing danger, the Armed Services Committee is focused on ensuring our fighting men and women have the tools, leadership, and policy they need to deter conflict, or if necessary, win it and return home safely. I am committed to working with Chairman Trent Kelly and our colleagues to ensure our Armed Forces remain the greatest fighting force in the world.”
