Florida – The Sunshine State
A disorganized state for most of its early history, Florida has rebounded to the third-most populous state in the country. The urban-rural divide that once defined the state’s political landscape now appears to be at the forefront once again.
Early History – A Disorganized Territory
Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León was the first European to explore Florida in 1513, which he named for the flowery, verdant landscape he found there. St. Augustine became the first permanent settlement in the area in 1565 by the French, who had some skirmishes with the Spanish over the territory, but the Spanish retained control over Florida from the 16th Century to the 19th Century. The Spanish kept the slave trade in Florida relatively low until a brief period of British rule started in 1763.
In 1763, Spain traded Florida to Britain in exchange for Havana, Cuba, a British territory after their victory in the French and Indian War. The British divided Florida into East and West Florida, with East Florida being most of the present-day state and West Florida being the southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Louisiana. The divide was due to Florida being too large for the British to administer as a single unit. The British also introduced farming of sugarcane, fruits, and indigo, lumber exporting, and a system of roads.
Florida had mostly loyalist tendencies during the Revolutionary War due to large British military populations that lived in the state. Border controversies ensued as Spain was given possession of Florida, ending Britain’s brief twenty-year period of control. As the British left, so did the Loyalist population.
Since Florida essentially became a frontier after the British left, the state became a haven for runaway slaves, Native Americans – most notably the Seminole people – and new settlers from the backwoods of Georgia and South Carolina. The Republic of West Florida survived as a two-month long republic that would later be annexed by Louisiana, and the Republic of East Florida sprang up on Amelia Island. The Seminole Wars would see the incursions of General Andrew Jackson (D-TN), who would later become the seventh President. Spain, seeing how difficult it was to maintain Florida as a colony, ceded it to the U.S. in 1821.
As Florida became a territory, internal struggles over land and profile continued. On March 3, 1845, Florida was admitted as the twenty-seventh state.
Civil War & Industrialization – A Land of Development and Tourism
By the time of statehood, half of Florida’s population was made up of slaves, most of whom worked on cotton and sugar plantations. Because of a weak central government and troubled political history, Florida had one of the highest per capita murder rates in the country before the Civil War.
Florida seceded on January 10, 1861, which led to Union conquest of its valuable port cities of Jacksonville, Key West, and Pensacola. The state hosted a few skirmishes and one major battle. The Union’s relatively easy takeover of Florida, combined with anti-secessionist tendencies before the War, made Florida abandon the Confederate effort within three years.
Reconstruction plagued Florida like all the other Southern states. Radical Republicans amended the 13th and 14th Amendments, which alienated Democratic voters. Intraparty fighting within the GOP allowed the Democrats to retake control of the state government through voter intimidation and election fraud. By the 1880s, Florida was aligned with the Democratic “Solid South.” Florida had voted for the GOP from 1868-1876. From 1880-1948, Florida would back only one Republican – Herbert Hoover (R-CA) in 1928.
By 1900, Florida’s population center was close to the Georgia border, owing to its strong agricultural profile. As railroads tied the state together, the population in the southern part of the state and coastal regions exploded, mainly due to Florida’s status as a prime vacation spot. Land developers quickly flocked to Miami and Palm Beach. The state’s development was hurt by the Great Depression, but kept afloat by FDR’s (D-NY) New deal policies.
From the 1880s, Democrats enjoyed large margins in Florida’s elections, with most counties – except for those with large black populations – voting Democratic. Florida’s status as a bellwether began to take shape in the 1900s, as William McKinley (R-OH) is, to date, the only President to win two terms without winning Florida either time. Warren Harding (R-OH) began the GOP inroads in Florida in 1920, as air conditioning and land development urbanized south Florida, flipping these counties Republican. Isolationism and sound economic doctrine of the 1920s began to chip away at the old Democratic guard.
In 1924, Calvin Coolidge (R-MA) became the last, to date, Republican to win a general election without carrying Florida. Herbert Hoover became the first Republican to carry Florida since 1876, owing to the state’s diverse population, many Northern transplants, considerable middle-class growth, and the white Democrats’ inability to counter the anti-Catholic lean of Al Smith (D-NY). Only whites who supported black disenfranchisement for Smith in 1928.
Florida would return to its Democratic roots from 1932-1948, voting for FDR in all four of his elections and Harry Truman (D-MO) in his one and only.
Dwight Eisenhower (R-KS) would build on Republican growth in the state by swinging the southeast corner’s liberal urban areas. The Panhandle, however, remained solidly blue. Eisenhower would carry the state by double-digits in both 1952 and 1956. Richard Nixon (R-CA) narrowly carried the state against John F. Kennedy (D-MA), owing to anti-Catholic sentiments and strongly-Republican cities of Tampa and Palm Beach. 1960 is one of just three elections, the others being 1992 and 2020, in which Florida did not back the winner of the general election.
Nixon would carry the state in 1968 on his way to the White House, with segregationist Alabama governor George Wallace (D) sweeping the Panhandle in his Independent bid. Nixon would win every county in 1972, the only time in history a Republican has done so.
1976 saw Gerald Ford (R-MI) win all urban and suburban counties, while Jimmy Carter (D-GA) won all rural and agricultural counties. Even in Ronald Reagan’s (R-CA) 1980 landslide, Florida’s Panhandle remained Democratic.
Geography
Florida’s geography has always preceded its electoral status:
- The Panhandle – Once solidly Democratic, now intensely Republican. The Panhandle is in the Central Time Zone, meaning if Democrats are behind statewide, it usually means they can’t get ahead.
- Northern Central Florida – Home to Gainesville and Jacksonville, two Democratic-leaning cities amidst Republican suburbs and exurbs.
- Tampa Bay – Home to Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, two significant bellwethers, home to diverse populations, tourist town, and retirement communities.
- Central Florida – A cultural and political mix anchored by blue-trending Orlando
- South Florida – Retirement communities like Sarasota in the northern part, and red-trending Miami. Home to a vibrant Cuban and Latino population that has raced to the right in the Trump Era.
Current Political Leanings – A Red State in the Making
The urban-rural divide we see nationally took a while to catch up to Florida. Bill Clinton (D-AR) only won Florida once in 1996. George Bush (R-TX) would carry it twice, then Barack Obama (D-IL) would carry it twice. Donald Trump defied the polls and pundits by appealing to the state’s older population, rural voters, and suburbs. Despite losing the 2020 race, he doubled his margin in Florida against Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade County by thirty points in 2016; Joe Biden won it by just seven points in 2020.
Despite this, Biden was able to flip Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), Duval County (Jacksonville), and Seminole County (Orlando), the last of which had not voted Democratic since 1948.
While the college-educated suburbs begin to trend Democratic for the first time since the 1940s, the rural regions have only gotten redder. However, Florida’s new red hue is owed to the large Cuban and Latino populations who disagree with Democrats’ national standings on open immigration and more socialist tendencies. Governor Ron DeSantis (R) won the closest gubernatorial election of the 2018 cycle, only to be reelected in 2022 by the largest margin for a Republican since 1868. He became the first Republican to win Miami-Dade County since 2002 and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1982.
Gubernatorial elections are often more reflective of candidate quality and local issues, while Senate races tend to be more in line with a state’s political lean. That same night, Senator Marco Rubio (R) won his election by seventeen points, also carrying Miami-Dade County. He became the first Republican in state history to win three consecutive terms to the U.S. Senate. This has led many to believe that Florida has realigned to become a new red state.
Democrats held both Senate seats from 1879-1969. They last held both in 1981. Republicans currently hold both, after Rick Scott (R) ousted Bill Nelson (D) in 2018.
Democrats governed the state from 1877-1967. They last governed it in 1999 and have not been able to win back the seat since.
Last year, Republicans took an advantage in voter registration for the first time in the state’s history. Early campaign reports for the 2024 race do not show Democrats prioritizing Florida. As Republicans make inroads with Latino voters and retake the classically-Republican cities, it seems Democrats will be outnumbered here for a good while.
