The political world received a shock earlier this week as several polls have shown the New York gubernatorial election a statistical toss-up between successive incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D) and Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley).
The nature of these polls has prompted the RealClearPolitics (RCP) website to shift the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” just a little over a week after downgrading the race from “Likely Dem” to “Leans Dem.”
The state joins several other high-profile races in the Toss-Up column on the RCP site, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Arizona, and Oregon.
While some observers are shocked, those familiar with New York, the current environment, electoral history, and her early standing in the polls all previously covered here at The Messenger are not as surprised. Hochul’s low double-digit lead after the primaries was cause for concern, as Gov. Cuomo enjoyed leads in the mid-20s against Marc Molinaro (R) in 2018.
Zeldin also sent messages that this race would be competitive in early 2021, when, after just his first quarter of fundraising, he took in more money than Molinaro did during the entire 2018 election cycle.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s (D) razor-thin re-election in 2021, the same night Glenn Youngkin (R) won in an upset in blue-leaning Virginia, gave New York Republicans some hope that the energy would align with the stars and that the stars would align for Zeldin.
All recent polling indicates that they have.
Pundits were not looking at low double-digits for Hochul as any issue. Nor did they voice any concern over some polls showing Zeldin within single digits. The Trafalgar Group poll over the Labor Day weekend drew ire as it put Hochul ahead by just four points. A month later, they showed Zeldin behind by just two points.
Trafalgar is a reputable pollster, but it wasn’t good enough to shift the race into more competitive territory. Even as some polls showed Hochul barely ahead, Siena College found her up 17 points in mid-September— not a bad place for an incumbent to be a little under two months away from Election Day.
However, it was merely an outlier.
The first problem was a Marist College poll that showed Hochul +8, 52%-44% among registered voters as opposed to likely voters, who are usually a much more accurate political barometer. Marist College currently boasts an “A” rating from the election analysis gurus at FiveThirtyEight.
Then, the Schoen/Cooperman poll was released a week after the Marist poll. The poll put Hochul only at +6, 50%-44%, among likely voters. Doug Schoen is a seasoned political analyst, who notably performed polling for Bill Clinton (D) in the 1990s, and Mayor Bloomberg, then a Republican, in the early-mid 2000s. As such, Schoen is intimately familiar with New York City and Democratic politicians.
The more detailed numbers of the Schoen/Cooperman poll should be ringing alarm bells for Democrats across the state, as the implications of the Governor’s race could aid Republicans in picking up anywhere from five to eight House seats across the state, as well as flipping the State Senate, or at least ending the Democratic supermajority.
The poll found that Hochul led uber-liberal New York City (NYC) by 59%-33%, a remarkably low margin for an incumbent three weeks from Election Day. It is widely considered that a Republican would need at least 30% of the NYC vote to cut into the lion’s share of any Democrat’s votes statewide. This was George Pataki’s formula in the 1994 Republican Revolution, an election year held under similar circumstances to 2022.
Zeldin also led the NYC suburbs 52%-45%, a margin he would need to maintain, especially in Nassau, Rockland, and Westchester Counties.
But the problems for Hochul and company didn’t stop with Schoen. A subsequent Siena College poll found Hochul up +11, 52%-41%, although down from her aforementioned 17-point lead.
The real shock came earlier this week when the famed Quinnipiac poll showed Hochul just four points ahead, 50%-46%.
Quinnipiac found Hochul’s margins in NYC to be rougher than that of the Schoen poll: 59%-37%. With Zeldin approaching a 40% floor in NYC, he’s overperforming by 10 points what he would need to win statewide.
The poll also found another uncomfortable statistic for the Governor: Independents back Zeldin by a whopping 20-point margin, 57%-37%, with just 6% undecided.
While not a swing state by any stretch of the imagination, New York is considered an “elastic state.” While there are not many registered Republicans, there are many registered Democrats and quite a few Independents/Nonpartisans, more than Republicans. Independents have, for the last several cycles, swung left. And in a blue state like New York, they consistently do so. However, Independents can break under certain circumstances, revealing just how much of a blue/red mirage there is, and observers are often shocked at how far the pendulum swings the other way.
The common denominator: crime. Most poll respondents, not just the two recent shock polls, said that crime is the major issue, with inflation/economy running a close second.
Hochul has tried to dominate the conversation regarding abortion, but it hasn’t stuck. The Quinnipiac poll found just 6% of respondents labeled abortion as their top issue.
Zeldin, who is pro-life, has insisted he will not attempt to change abortion law in the state.
Zeldin also seems to be weathering the public endorsement from President Trump, whose voice in a state where he is disliked might drag Zeldin down. Zeldin has said that this election is not about “what a former President thinks.”
With just three weeks to go until Election Day, Zeldin has covered a lot of ground fast. The Quinnipiac poll also found relatively-unknown Senate candidate Joe Pinion (R) trailing Sen. Maj. Leader Chuck Schumer (D) by 12 points, a modest margin for a Senate race with no attention.
It is also assumed Zeldin is leading in all seven House battleground districts.
If elected, Zeldin would be the first Republican to win statewide in New York since George Pataki won his third and final term in 2002.
