This is the eleventh of a series column that will look at the history of all 50 States,
all 5 territories, and the Capital and the influence history has on our
current political environments. The aim of this column is to capture that
our country is not just red or blue, but rather many shades in between.
Each Lower 48 state’s current political landscape can be traced back to
its early settlement and geography and its particular involvement in the
Civil War, the Industrial Revolution, and the Civil Rights Era.
New York – The Empire State
Once the most electorally powerful state in the country for nearly 150 years, New York has since fallen from glory, not only as a bastion of electoral votes, but also as a battleground that wielded significant competitive leverage. Unlike other histories of other states’ being primarily owed to war, coalitions, or industry, New York is distinct in that its history has been defined primarily by organized and central power.
Formation and Revolution
New York was discovered due to Giovanni da Verrazzano’s 1524 exploration. Fur trading between the Natives and Europeans would predate the Dutch control nearly 100 years later. The Dutch called the area New Amsterdam, and a surprisingly diverse colony was run by the choleric Peter Stuyvesant. The colony’s small size preceded its vulnerability, leading it to eventual seizure by the British. King Charles II named the colony for his brother, the Duke of York.
New York’s location on the eastern seaboard, in close proximity to other major port cities, as well as river connections inland, made it incredibly strategic for the British. The state also played host to nearly a third of all Revolutionary War battles, the most notable being the Battle of Saratoga, often considered a major turning point in the war. It was here that the Americans ended the British campaign to New England, took control of the Hudson River and convinced France to ally with the U.S.
After the Constitution’s ratification in 1788, New York City became the first capital of the United States. George Washington was inaugurated as the first president in 1789 at Federal Hall on Wall Street. The Bill of Rights was drafted here, and the first Supreme Court was sat here as well.
Civil War, Industrialization, and Immigration
Although Wisconsin is credited as the birthplace of the GOP, without New York’s massive political, economic, and cultural machine, the party likely wouldn’t have had the support it needed to become relevant by the Civil War. Much of the state was home to progressive values, including abolition and women’s rights. By the 1840s, blacks’ rights had been expanded and laws had been passed against slave-catching in the state.
However, New York’s problem was that it relied heavily on trade with the South, namely cotton, since Upstate New York was home to a vibrant textile industry. NYC’s largest Democrats actually called for secession ahead of Abraham Lincoln’s (R-IL) election. While no battles were fought in New York, the state did send more troops than any other Northern state, and the state was the target of Southern strategies that never came to fruition.
For the latter half of the 1800s, New York would be the golden egg of swing states. By the turn of the Century, it was reliably Republican, owing to Upstate’s abolitionist roots. NYC, on the other hand, was becoming heavily Democratic as immigrants found a home in the party, along with Irish Catholic Al Smith’s (D) ascension to the governorship.
Tammany Hall became one of the most influential political machines in American history. It became notorious for its political corruption and heavy leveraging of policymaking under William “Boss” Tweed in the mid-1800s. Republicans throughout the rest of the state were able to contain Tammany and Manhattan, limiting Democratic clout primarily to the city.
Following the war, New York became the financial and banking capital of the country. Advanced transportation connected Upstate and Downstate. NYC and Niagara Falls produced mass tourism. The state’s natural waterways were a boon to hydroelectric power. Prominent families and inventors hailed from New York: John Jacob Astor, Andrew Carnegie, the Guggenheims, and the Rockefellers to name a few.
Job growth, exploding industry, and the epitome of the “American Dream” attracted millions of migrants from Europe who looked to escape high taxation, religious persecution, and famine, namely the Great Irish Famine of the 1840s. The vast majority of immigrants came through Ellis Island and would set up shop in New York to cash in on the culture. The hard-working, entrepreneurial immigrant culture also made New York a manufacturing hub. The state was unstoppable. The Roaring 20s were especially good for New York; the era saw tech companies, such as General Electric, IBM, and Xerox, take root Upstate.
The Great Depression hurt New York unlike any other state; nearly a quarter of the state was unemployed. Franklin Roosevelt (D) was elected Governor in 1928, and his novel work relief programs catapulted him to the Presidency in a landslide in 1932.
New York received a massive booster shot from WWII, for which the state supplied the most resources – 11% of total U.S. military armaments during the war. The war also marked the end of the state’s manufacturing era, as the state’s economy shifted to services over goods. The economic shifts saw out-state migration, facilitated by the new automobiles and planned communities like Levittown. Other states seemed more attractive for more opportunity, lower costs, and less union organization. The influx of soldiers who were offered higher education swamped public colleges; Governor Thomas Dewey (R) created the State University of New York (SUNY) system in 1948 to combat this.
Current Political Leanings
New York, a former reddish state and once the most-populous in the country, would begin to lose both its GOP and population clout around the 1970s. Poor fiscal policy brought NYC inches from bankruptcy, followed by a recession in the 1990s that led to economic restructuring. The September 11 attacks saw decentralization in New York as 200,000 jobs left the city. The 2008 recession cratered the economy, dealing the state a semi-final economic kick while down.
New York has hemorrhaged population since then; it has lost at least two House seats in every Census from 1950-2010. In 2020, it lost just one, coming up a mere 89 residents short of its retention. The shift to a service-based industry increased the outmigration of white, blue-collar workers, while the new economic horizons continue to attract young immigrants. At its peak, New York had 47 electoral votes. It now has 28 votes, fourth behind California, Texas, and Florida.
The GOP’s classical hold on New York defined it as a red state; from 1856-1928, it would back a Republican presidential nominee every time. Calvin Coolidge’s (R-MA) election in 1924 would see the last time a Republican swept all 62 counties and won all 5 NYC Boroughs. The turn of the Century was dominated by progressive politics, most of which spawned from New York’s lead on labor reform, women’s suffrage, and racial diversity. The state’s love for FDR cemented New York as a new blueish state going forward, although his latter two wins would be marginal due to the state’s obvious political rift. Queens was still red-leaning at the time, giving the GOP a decent footing in NYC.
Republican Dwight Eisenhower (D-KS) would carry New York handily against Southern Democrat Adlai Stevenson (D-IL) in 1952 and 1956. John Kennedy’s (D-MA) Irish Catholic image rebranded the national Democratic party, which carried significant clout in Irish-Catholic NYC in 1960. Lyndon Johnson’s (D-TX) warmth to Civil Rights earned him the largest margin of any presidential candidate in New York’s history in 1964 – a whopping 37-point margin of victory. He is the only Democrat to have swept all counties in the state.
From then, New York’s urban-rural divide would become readily apparent. Immigrant-heavy and progressive NYC would soon drown the rest of the state. Richard Nixon (R-CA) is the last Republican to have won Queens, and Ronald Reagan (R-CA) is the last Republican to win the state on the presidential level (1984). Bill Clinton’s (D-AR) watershed election in 1992 would finish the change of classically liberal-GOP New England to blue-dog Democratic, handing historically-red Upstate and Long Island to the Democrats.
Donald Trump’s (R-NY) unpopularity in the state is only reflected by raw votes. He actually flipped 19 counties, including Suffolk, in 2016. Biden only flipped four of them back in 2020.
The GOP has not held a majority of U.S. House seats from New York since 1965. Al D’Amato is the last Republican to win a Senate race (1992) and the GOP has not held both seats since 1976. New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki in 2002. Before him, the GOP had not held the mansion since 1974.
While New York is no swing state by any stretch of the imagination, 2022 leaves questions to be answered throughout the decade. While Lee Zeldin’s (R-Shirley) stellar performance in the gubernatorial race leaves some believing a shift is abound, it’s truly a wait-and-see scenario. No doubt the Suffolk and Nassau GOPs have experienced recent historic comebacks. While it might not be enough to swing the state outright, Democrats might have to weather cuts in their popular vote margins if a DeSantis-like machine has actually been pioneered by Zeldin in the Empire State.
