National
A working-class Pennsylvania county has recently delivered seemingly-innocuous news that has actually sent political shockwaves reverberating throughout the nation’s premier swing state.
Luzerne County, located just southwest of Scranton, is home to Wilkes-Barre, a notable coal-mining suburban area known for its long history of fraternization with Democratic policies and candidates. The blue-collar, heavily-unionized county has, for the majority of its political history, been a swing county. It backed Republicans in the elections from 1948 to 1956, Democrats for all elections in the 1960s, Richard Nixon (R-CA) in 1972, Jimmy Carter (D-GA) in 1976, Republicans in all three elections of the 1980s, and backed every Democrat from 1992 to 2012.
The largest margin for any democrat was 70% for Lyndon Johnsn (D-TX) in 1964. Republicans’ best margin in Luzerne County was Warren Harding’s (R-OH) 65% win in 1920.
Donald Trump (R-FL) flipped Luzerne in 2016 to take a 58% margin, after the county had backed Barack Obama (D-IL) by about five points just four years prior. Trump’s margin slipped slightly in 2020, but he still commanded 56.6% of the vote.
On Monday, the Pennsylvania Department of State reported that Luzerne County now has more registered Republicans than Democrats.
Their lead is slim, with registered Rs clocking in 87,415 voters to registered Ds coming in at 87,332 – just an 83-voter lead, but one that is unparalleled in modern politics.
The GOP last held the registration advantage in Luzerne County in 1972, when Republicans outnumbered Democrats by about 12,000 voters. However, after Nixon resigned in 1974 following the Watergate scandal, the Luzerne numbers shifted dramatically, giving Democrats a near-40,000-registrant advantage. Their advantage peaked to a 50,000-voter advantage in 2009, but the edges have been slipping for the last fifteen years.
The new number is fueled in part by local grassroots efforts to communicate with voters and put the finger on the pulse of the county’s priorities. Republicans on the ground are hopeful the numbers continue to shift in their favor, as Luzerne County will no doubt be a primary battlefield in the state most likely to determine the next president.
With just a little more than one month until Election Day, pollsters are starting to release results of more surveys now that Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) has had about a month to run as the official Democratic nominee.
A state rarely polled shows a decent lead for Harris: a seventeen-point spread in Delaware. A closer-than-expected result in 2016 made the case that Delaware could become competitive with the right messaging, a theory supported by preliminary 2020 polling that showed Trump tied with other major candidates besides Joe Biden (D-DE), who has the distinction of being the only president to hail from the First State.
But Delaware was largely removed from the map in 2020, and it seems as though this will be the case this year. Its three electoral votes make for virtually nonexistent campaign presence, and its distinct blue lean will likely insulate Democrats from any real competition threatening their trio of open statewide seats this year.
The Slingshot Strategies poll of 500 registered voters tracks Harris with 54% to Trump’s 37%. It tracks a slight underperformance on Harris’ part, as respondents said they broke for Biden 59%-40% in the last election. 58% of voters polled were from New Castle County, home to Wilmington, the base of the state’s Democratic electorate. The majority of the respondents were women, 54%, to the men’s 45%.
Harris is also ahead in Rhode Island, but by twelve points. The MassINC Polling Group’s survey of 800 likely voters shows a much smaller margin than the twenty-point margin earned by her predecessor, and even the fourteen-point margin won by Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in 2016. While the poll found that both candidates are maximizing their registered bases, 7% of Rhode Island Democrats plan to vote for Trump, compared to 4% of Republicans voting for Harris.
“Rhode Island seemed a little closer than maybe we were expecting, but it’s a very safe lead for Kamala Harris,” said Richard Parr, Senior Research Director for MassINC.
Harris has also been tracked ahead in New Mexico, as evidenced by SurveyUSA’s poll of 619 likely voters. Harris galvanizes 50% of voters to Trump’s 42% in the former swing state that now boasts a modest blue lean. Biden won the Land of Enchantment by about eleven points four years ago.
The poll shows Harris taking 53% of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, compared to Trump’s 39%.
Finally, another infrequently polled northeastern state made it into the mix this week: Connecticut, showing a sixteen-point lead for Harris – 53%-37%.
Conducted also by MassINC Polling Group, this survey reached out to 800 likely voters, showing a slight decrease in Biden’s twenty-point margin but an improvement from Hillary Clinton’s fourteen-point margin. Both candidates maximize their bases here, but Harris siphons a bit more Republican support from Trump than she does in Rhode Island. She captured 4% of Republicans in the Connecticut poll, as opposed to just 2% of Democrats breaking for Trump. Harris also clears 40% of Independent support, while Trump is not far behind in the high 30s.
The poll also shows an interesting divergence between voters on what issues they feel are the most important. At least 60% of Connecticut Democrats surveyed reported that gun policies, climate change, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the characters of the candidates are top issues, with 70% agreeing that abortion and the future of democracy are the most important.
Polled Republicans, on the other hand, report that the economy, immigration policies, and the national deficit are the top issues.
State
Siena College has released their much-anticipated poll, which was conducted between September 11 and 16, included 1,003 likely voters, and holds a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.
The poll continues to track what many have been noticing: Democrats are due for a large swing against them in New York. According to the latest study, Harris leads Trump by just twelve points in a state that went for Biden by twenty-three points in 2020 and has not backed a Republican since 1984.
Respondents say they trust Harris more on abortion, democracy, and the economy, with the latter category showing 52%-45% support for the Vice President. Harris also leads Trump by just one point – 48%-47% – among trust in handling immigration issues.
The poll notes that while Independents trust Harris more on abortion issues – 50%-42% – they trust Trump more on issues of democracy, economy, and immigration.
About two-thirds of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans agree that there should be a second debate between the two candidates.
Siena College also tracks Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) as running much farther ahead against her opponent than Harris is against Trump. Gillibrand faces first-time candidate Mike Sapraicone (R-Floral Park). The College finds her leading Sapraicone by twenty-three points, but that Independents have flipped to support the Republican by nine points after supporting the incumbent by thirteen.
Governor Kathy Hochul (D) is also found to not be improving her favorability and job approval ratings, as both remain at all-time lows.
Her approval rating is now at a record low of 34%-54%, while her job approval is also at a record low at 39%-56%. For reference, roughly half of New York’s voters are registered Democrats.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said that while net favorability ratings for the presidential candidates, their running mates, and Senator Gillibrand have remained mostly unchanged since August, Hochul’s favorability plummeted by nine points and her job approval fell by a net fourteen points.
Hochul’s favorability sitting at twenty points underwater is actually worse than Donald Trump’s New York favorability ratings at eighteen points underwater.
Voters favor congressional Democrats by a nearly-identical margin to that of the presidential race – 52%-39% – with Independents favoring Republican congressional candidates two-to-one. They were previously evenly split between the two parties. Republicans have the edge in downstate suburban and upstate districts.
Voters also seem overwhelmingly enthused about Proposition One, the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) slated as a ballot measure this fall. Democrats support the measure 89%-6%, while Republicans oppose it 48%-30%. While Independents still support Proposition One, the College finds that their support has plummeted from 64% in favor to just 49% in favor.
Overall, New Yorkers remain pessimistic about the direction of the state, with only 32% of respondents believing New York is on the right track. The College notes that this is the most pessimistic New Yorkers have been about the direction of the state in the last decade.
Local
H.R. 8790, the Fix Our Forests Act, is intentioned to “improve forest management activities on National Forest System lands, on public lands under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management, and on Tribal Lands to return resilience to overgrown, fire-prone forested lands,” among other purposes.
Congressman Nick LaLota (R, NY-01) saw passage of his amendment to the bill on Tuesday. His amendment would direct the Secretary of Agriculture to comprehensively study the infestation of pine beetles, as well as their effects on crops and forests and solutions for dealing with the invasive species.
“This tiny pest, no larger than a grain of rice, has wreaked havoc on over 5,000 acres of forest in my district alone, threatening our ecosystem and critical natural resources. The southern pine beetle infestation has put immense pressure on Long Island’s Pine Barrens, which serve as a vital habitat for wildlife and play a crucial role in protecting our water supply,” said LaLota. “My amendment is not just about studying a pest; it’s about taking proactive measures to protect our environment, safeguard the drinking water of millions, and ensure that our forests’ rich biodiversity and natural beauty remain intact for future generations. Without intervention, the consequences for our ecosystem and local economy could be severe so we must take action now.”
