National
The 2024 presidential ticket is nearing completion as Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) as her running mate.
The move comes just weeks after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee against former President Donald Trump (R-FL), after President Joe Biden’s (D-DE) widely-criticized June debate performance that resulted in mass concern over his ability to win re-election.
Harris chose from a slate of prominent Democrats, including Governors Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Andy Beshear (D-KY), J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), and Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D-IN).
Walz has reportedly been chosen for his Midwestern “folksy” appeal, his apparent strength in helping Harris retain the Rust Belt battlegrounds of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and his particular strain of progressive politics.
Some in the Democratic camp are reportedly satisfied in her pick in Walz, as his Army service, twelve years in Congress representing the swingy MN-01, and his five years as Governor of the North Star State provide a list of credentials they believe can court doubtful Democrats and win back Independents among whom Biden had been hemorrhaging.
On the other hand, some Democrats are nervous in the same way some Republicans are nervous in Trump’s pick of Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), in that Walz does little to balance the ticket. Some believe his progressive stances as governor only make less of a case for moderates who already see Harris as a highly liberal candidate.
Walz represented MN-01 in the U.S. House from 2007 to 2019. He won three narrow elections, with his most narrow being a less-than-one-point-win in 2016 to Jim Hagedorn (R), who would later flip the seat in the 2018 midterms, despite running in a good Democratic year. Walz vacated the seat in 2018 to run for the open governorship, which he secured by almost twelve points.
Walz appeared prohibitively favored for re-election in 2022, with The Messenger rating the race as Leans Democrat and putting Walz on “upset alert.” Walz was re-elected, but by a thinner eight-point margin.
As governor, Walz instituted liberal policies that made national headlines, such as signing legislation that indirectly mandates menstrual products in men/boys’ restrooms, making Minnesota a “refuge” for transgender care, and codifying a constitutional right to abortion. Minnesota’s abortion laws do not impose gestational limits on the procedure, meaning it can be done at any time during pregnancy.
Walz also famously presided over the 2020 Black Lives Matter riots in the Twin Cities, calling the mayors’ responses to the destruction and violence an “abject failure.” The riots saw the destruction of the Minneapolis’ Third Precinct Headquarters, two riot-related deaths, 164 instances of arson, over 600 arrests, damages to 1,500 properties, and an estimated $500 million in damages over the two-day period.
Walz’s selection is also expected to help Harris retain Minnesota in the election, a state whose electoral votes have not gone to a Republican since 1972, the longest state winning streak for the Democrats.
In primary news, four states held their primaries to determine congressional and state nominees for the general election.
In Kansas, Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) has won the primary to succeed outgoing Congressman Jake LaTurner (R). Schmidt ran a close race in the 2022 gubernatorial election, losing to Governor Laura Kelly (D) by two points.
In KS-03, Prasanth Reddy (R) is set to take on three-term Congresswoman Sharice Davids (D). KS-03 is a slightly blue-leaning district that takes in the Democratic suburbs of Kansas City, solidly-blue Wyandotte County, and swingy Johnson County (Olathe). Davids is the lone Democratic member from the Sunflower State’s congressional delegation. Republicans are largely expected to win KS-01 and KS-04.
In Michigan, the marquee Senate race became somewhat clearer as three-term Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-07) will face off against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R). Rogers has had a lengthy career in the FBI, and Slotkin in the CIA. Slotkin won three close elections in the Lansing-based MI-07 and has a competitive level of charisma to run a statewide campaign. The open seat was vacated by four-term Senator Debbie Stabenow (D).
Polling has indicated a tight race, and with an even tighter race at the top of the ticket, balance of power in the Senate could come down to whoever wins the presidential contest in the Wolverine State. Michigan has not elected a Republican Senator since 2000.
Races were also decided in the highly-competitive districts of MI-07, MI-08 (Flint, Saginaw), and MI-10 (suburban Detroit). Only MI-10 is represented by a Republican – John James – while MI-08 was once solidly-blue, working-class, organized labor territory that has raced to the right in the Trump era. Congressman Dan Kildee (D), of the notable Kildee political dynasty, is retiring, leaving an open seat that will likely determine control of the U.S. House.
In MI-10, John James will face a rematch with Carl Marlinga (D), whom he narrowly defeated to win a first term in 2022.
In Missouri, another progressive challenger has lost a primary bid. Cori Bush (D) was elected to the seat in 2020 after primarying ten-term incumbent Lacy Clay (D) in MO-01 (St. Louis). A notable member of the progressive “squad,” Bush was ousted by St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell (D). Bell is largely expected to win in this deep-blue district.
Bush’s loss comes nearly two months after Congressman Jamal Bowman’s (D, NY-16) primary loss to Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D). Another progressive “squad” member, the two losses are now considered a referendum on progressive policies and such camaraderie on Capitol Hill.
Missouri will also play host to an open gubernatorial race, which is not expected to be largely competitive, as well as a potentially-engaged Senate race, in which firebrand one-term conservative Josh Hawley (R) has gained nonprofit leader Lucas Kunce (D) as a challenger.
In Washington, the state’s top-two primary is yielding results that are often used as a bellwether for the general election. The top-two primary features all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-receivers advance to the general election. This creates scenarios where two Democrats (or Republicans) can appear on the ballot for one office. The final vote totals for each party between all candidates on the ballot are also analyzed to see relative party strength in the comprehensive primary vote.
The Senate race will feature four-term incumbent Maria Cantwell (D) and Raul Garcia (R). The race is not expected to become competitive, and Cantwell took 58% of the vote to Garcia’s 21.5%.
The governor’s race, however, has been shaping up to be a sleeper. Three-term incumbent Jay Inslee (D) declined to seek a fourth term, and the GOP scored a top recruit in former Kings County (Seattle) Sheriff and Congressman Dave Reichert (R). Polling has shown Reichert not only leading the top-two primary, but also leading the general election over the anticipated Democratic nominee, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D).
Indeed, Ferguson and Reichert advanced from a massive field of over thirty candidates, taking 45.6% and 28% of the vote, respectively. Democrats appear on track to win the collective top-two vote by about ten points, a relatively thin margin for an obdurately blue state. However, two of the last three gubernatorial elections in the Evergreen state were decided by single-digits.
In WA-04, Trump’s vendetta against one of the last Republican House members to vote to impeach him in 2019 continues, as five-term incumbent Dan Newhouse (R) appears on track to secure second place in the primary, allowing to advance in the general election against former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R).
Finally, in WA-03, a rematch has been set against Joe Kent (R) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D). Kent primaried Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) in 2022 for her vote of impeachment against Trump, but narrowly lost the general election to Perez. WA-03 includes the southwestern portion of the state, extending from the Pacific Ocean to the Portland, Oregon, satellite city of Vancouver. It’s a Republican-leaning district and Perez’s 2022 shocker was seen as the biggest upset of the night.
State
Siena College has released their latest statewide opinion poll on the presidential election, Governor Kathy Hochul’s (D) approval ratings, and other political matters.
Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by fourteen-points in a head-to-head matchup. She leads him by twelve points in a six-way horse race. Trump trailed Biden by just eight points in their June poll. Biden won New York by nearly twenty-four points four years ago.
Harris has improved the ticket’s standing among Democratic voters, garnering 86%, up from Biden’s 75%. Independents still support Trump – 47%-40% – but that number is down from his 45%-28% lead he had over Biden. Harris has improved the ticket’s standing significantly among black voters – 81%-11% – up from Biden’s 59%-29% in June.
Harris also leads among women 64%-30%, up from Biden’s 51%033%. Trump improved slightly among men – 49-43% – over June’s 46%-42%. Young voters, however, have given Harris less favorable marks, albeit slightly, backing her 49%-34% from Biden’s 51%-32%. Harris’ largest pickup among age demographics was among voters aged 34-54, who favor her 54%-40% after favoring Trump 44%-41%.
Harris is favorable among New York voters – 53%-43% – up from 42%-47% in October, while Trump remains unfavorable at 39%-59%.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) leads challenger Mike Sapraicone 56%-33%.
The controversial Proposition 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that would add anti-discrimination provisions and protect abortion, rights earns 89% of Democratic support, 64% of Independent support, and 55% of Republican opposition. Republicans have decried the proposition as an underhanded way of changing fundamental equal opportunity laws, vis-à-vis allowing men to play in womens’ sports.
The Governor’s plan to ban smartphones in classrooms is supported by both Democrats and Republicans at 58% each, with 64% of Independent support.
Hochul’s favorability rating sits at 39%-50%, slightly up from 38%-49% in June, although it’s the first time 50% of voters have viewed unfavorably. Her job approval rating, although still underwater, is slightly up at 46%-49%.
Voters believe the state and the country are on the wrong track by a 51%-39% margin.
The poll was conducted from July 28 to August 1 among 1,199 likely New York voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R, NY-01) has secured $3.76 million for Elizabeth Field Airport on Fishers Island.
The two grants of $2,460,667 and $1,300,000 from the Federal Aviation Administration under the Department of Transportation for the final phase of runway rehabilitation, restoration of 2,345 feet of existing Runway 12/30 pavement, and enhancements to maintain structural integrity and to minimize foreign object debris.
The grants are provided by the Transportation and Housing and Urban Development appropriations bill passed in March.
