On paper, Idaho should not have been a swing state during its early history. But that era was short-lived and Idaho now has one of the strongest single-party voting records of most states.
Early History – The Last Frontier of the Lower 48
Located in the Rocky Mountain-Pacific Northwest region, Idaho was the last of the Lower Forty-Eight states to be explored by European-Americans. The Lewis and Clark Expedition entered Idaho in 1805. Like much of the Northwest, fur trading led the first excursions into the area, with the British controlling much of the trade on the Snake River. By 1836, a Protestant mission had established Idaho’s first school, its first irrigation system, and grew the state’s first potatoes. Idaho’s environment is unique in that it provides ideal conditions for potato farming, giving its unofficial namesake today.
Idaho’s early history was also defined by the traffic from the Oregon Trail and the California Gold Rush. Idaho had its own set of gold rushes starting in 1860, while a similar boom occurred in neighboring Montana, fueling the population growth in all parts of the state.
In addition to the state’s regular migration from the eastern U.S. and Europe, Idaho became a small population of the Church of Latter Day Saints, or the Mormon Church. Mormons had originally founded Fort Lemhi in Idaho in 1855, but the settlement did not last. Their first permanent town was that of Franklin, founded in 1860 by Mormon pioneers who believed they were in the Utah Territory, then the destination of choice for Mormons. Today, southeastern Idaho, including Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and several smaller cities, represent a decently-large portion of the Mormon population.
Idaho was admitted as the forty-third state on July 3, 1890. Its first Congressman, Willis Sweet (R), demanded for free silver, creating a sharp separation from the gold standard Republicans like William McKinley (R-OH) and the Democratic-leaning Free Silver Populists.
Industrialization and 20th Century Politics – An Unlikely Swing State
Idaho’s first few years as a state were marked by mining uprisings between union workers and company guards, starting in Coeur d’Alene in the northern tip of the panhandle. Violence continued across the state, culminating in the assassination of the pro-labor governor who then backtracked to stamp out the uprisings.
Mining would become the state’s bread and butter, and for a brief period in the 1860s, Idaho produced nearly 20% of the nation’s gold. The state was, and still is, home to ore deposits of exceedingly rare and highly valuable minerals and gems. Idaho is home to more than seventy-two different types of precious and semi-precious gemstones, second only in variety to Africa. Transition metals like lead, copper, silver, molybdenum, and manganese are also found in the state.
With such a vibrant mining industry came populist and progressive policies. In addition to demand for the silver standard of currency, Idaho was also warm to women’s suffrage and prohibition. Idaho’s pro-bimetallism Republicans were a unique sect of the party.
Crucial to Idaho’s development also was the pushback against the Mormon Church. The Republican Party was intrinsically anti-Mormon, with the party’s establishment in 1856 naming polygamy and slavery as the “twin relics of barbarism.” The Idaho Test Oath Act in 1884 removed the voting rights of the then-heavily Democratic Mormon base. The state legislature repealed the anti-Mormon measures in 1893 and Mormons have since been able to vote and hold office in Idaho.
Initially, Idaho was expected to be a Republican-leaning state due to its heavy agricultural and industrial lean, especially with the exclusion of Mormons from political participation. However, the state’s intensely pro-silver platform allowed Populist James Weaver (I-IA) in the 1892 election – Idaho’s first election – by a substantial margin. Idaho would then back William Jennings Bryan (D-NE), a Populist-Free Silver Democrat in its next two elections. Theodore Roosevelt’s (R-NY) eclectic political views of railroad reforms, protecting miners, and open-space preservation made him the first Republican to carry Idaho in 1904. However, Roosevelt’s third-party Progressive run in 1912 was not enough for him to carry the state, handing it to Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ).
The bulk of early Democratic votes in Idaho were concentrated in the entire western portion of the state, home to most of the mining, although the southeastern part would catch on with the heavy Mormon population. Republicans were then able to dominate Idaho in all three elections of the 1920s, although Robert La Follette’s (I-WI) Progressive bid in 1924 would see the panhandle defect from the GOP.
Idaho suffered greatly during the Great Depression, with average income dropping by almost 50% and farmers being the most severely hurt out of any other industry. Franklin Roosevelt’s (D-NY) New Deal coalition of union labor would appeal strongly to the state, allowing him to carry it in all four of his elections. In 1948, Harry Truman (D-MO) would upset Thomas Dewey (R-NY) in Idaho, effectively marking the end of its era as swing state.
After World War II, Democrats began to lose their footing in Idaho, as the state shifted its focus from heavily-unionized labor in the mining and timber sectors. The state became an unlikely tech hub, as the small city of Rigby is known as the birthplace of television, where inventor Philo Farnsworth reportedly sketched his design for a high school science paper. Boise’s low cost of living and low regulations would allow it to develop a small Silicon Valley-like personality, today housing regional operations of large technology companies, including Hewlett-Packard.
True to its progressive form, Idaho’s State Capitol building is the only capitol building in the country to be heated entirely by a geothermal water system.
Republicans have won every election in Idaho since 1952, with the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s (D-TX) narrow win in 1964.
In addition to Democrats’ loss of demographics, their increasingly-liberal stances on social issues led their once reliable bloc of Mormon voters to trend Republican. Today, Mormons are some of the most staunch Republican voters in the country, although not prohibitively so, as Donald Trump’s (R-FL) more populist messaging did not resonate as well with them in 2016.
Geography – The Gem State
Idaho’s population growth has boomed in the last several years. In 2019, it was the fastest growing state in the nation, expanding by 2.1%. Although this made some conservatives nervous, as influx from the Pacific liberal states has deteriorated margins in states like Nevada, Texas, and Colorado, Idaho has remained staunchly conservative, as most migrants have moved there for the low cost, natural beauty, and the intrinsically libertarian mindset of the state’s Republican Party.
- Southeastern Idaho – Home to Idaho Falls and Pocatello and the small section of Yellowstone National Park in Idaho; the Mormon center of the state. Home also to Teton County on the Wyoming border, a tourist area and swing county leaning Democrat in recent elections; staunchly Republican.
- Central Idaho – Home to the cities of Salmon of Twin Falls and Blaine County, which includes the tourist-ski towns of Sun Valley and Ketchum. While Central Idaho is strongly Republican, Blaine County is the only solidly Democratic county in the state, mostly due to rich, white, liberal voters and a more transient population due to the tourism industry. People move here for skiing and nature, not politics.
- Southern Panhandle – The southern half of the panhandle is home to some of the state’s mining industry, but also the capital of Boise and its suburbs of Nampa and Caldwell, extending halfway up the state to Grangeville. Despite being a fairly large city, Boise is one of the more conservative cities in the country, even with its tech hub and its rank as one of the best college towns in the country as found last month by NBC.
- Northern Panhandle – Home to the true mining base of Idaho, with cities of Coeur d’Alene, Sandpoint, and the Nez Perce Reservation. Home to Latah County, the other Democratic-leaning swing county in the state; the panhandle otherwise is intensely Republican.
Current Political Leanings – A Ruby Red Gem
No Democrat has eclipsed 40% of the vote – let alone won the state outright – since Lyndon Johnson carried it in 1964. Republicans have also only dropped below 60% of the vote three times since then: 1968, 1992, and 2016, all due either to thirty-party bids or a drop in Mormon support for the GOP.
Republicans have solid locks on both chambers of the state legislature for much of its history, and have held both U.S. Senate seats since 1981. Democrats last held both seats simultaneously in 1949. Democrats have not won a gubernatorial race here since Cecil Andrus (D) was re-elected in 1990.
Since 1992, Idaho has only sent one Democrat to Washington: Walt Minnick, who capitalized on the panhandle’s ancestral Democratic tendencies amid the blue wave year of 2008. Despite his conservative voting record, he lost re-election amid the 2010 red wave.
Republicans might not have any room for growth, but it’s not really needed. Even with its progressive ancestry, conservative-libertarian politics will continue to govern Idaho, so long as Democrats don’t circle back to the center. Even then, Idaho would still be too much of a lift for them.
