We’ve discussed the current redistricting arms race to death, but Governor Kathy Hochul (D) recently added a new development to the conversation.
Of the voter-approved Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC), Hochul said that the commission has been operating at a “disadvantage”, by her “judgement.”
This sheds interesting light on the current national scramble to the magic number of 218 – the quorum required for a party to seal a majority in the U.S. House. Not only is the current redistricting push in New York completely moot for the 2026 midterms, but Hochul’s latest comments, obtained by Spectrum News 1, indicate, to us, that there’s more at play here.
The IRC was created in 2014 via ballot measure to specifically take the politics out of constituent cartography. Several states have fully-fledged commissions that are known for developing fair and competitive maps that reflect the state’s overall lean, while other states have their processes entirely within the hands of their respective state legislatures. New York’s is, as we’ve described, “fantasy-league”, as the failsafes for a deadlock only circled back to Albany. Deadlocks in today’s day and age are practically inevitable as it stands.
The ill-fated “Hochul-mander” failed to withstand judicial scrutiny, leading to the remedial map used in 2022 – the one that delivered the House majority to the Republicans – followed by a court overturn that allowed Albany Democrats to draw their own map. However, they could change district boundaries up to just 2% of their current configuration. That result was what was just used in 2024 and what is still active. The map wasn’t a far cry from its remedial predecessor, but it did likely help Democrats win some marginal races and pick up three seats in New York last year.
Now, Hochul and company are entertaining a mid-decade redistricting plight to combat the gerrymander in Texas and other states expected to follow suit.
Where Hochul Has the Upper Hand
Hochul has the upper hand by simply rallying the already-beleaguered Democratic base up in New York. Even if no maps come to pass, New York Democrats have yet another reason to hit the polls next year, even as the Democratic Party continues to receive historically low – and underwater – approval ratings and while Kathy Hochul is shaping up to be in a tough election next year.
It’s already known that the mid-decade map won’t be ready in time for 2026. The proposal to override the IRC and pass a new map would have to survive two separate sessions of the State Legislature – 2026 and 2027 – followed by approval at the ballot box in 2027 for the new map to come online by 2028.
It could be an ounce of prevention to “undo” whatever gains the GOP might make in 2026 and assist Democrats in retaking the House in 2028. But in terms of addressing the immediate, the current fast track is completely moot.
Therefore, conventional political wisdom would state that rallying up the base is as good as it gets, and for Hochul and company, they’ll sorely need it next year.
Where Hochul Raises Eyebrows
Hochul’s opinion that the IRC has operated a “disadvantage” since its maiden voyage was inevitably ill-fated in 2021 makes us skeptical that this is all just about Texas, however.
Hochul admits that her predecessor, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-Sutton Place), and good government groups championed the initiative, and it’s one that we agree with. We have problems with how New York’s IRC operates, but only as to how it eventually transfers power back to the Legislature. The loopholes are too large and the safeguards are too flimsy. It can certainly be done correctly, as other states have clearly demonstrated. Hochul’s problem, we would imagine, isn’t with the concept of the commission itself, but the way it was specifically implemented in New York.
Except it’s not entirely clear where Hochul’s consternation with the IRC lies. For now, we would address reforms to make the IRC a fully-fledged one by the time the 2030 Census rolls around, rather than tampering with an already-fair map that was clearly beneficial to the Democrats just last year. The Westchester-based NY-17 is a district that backed Kamala Harris (D-CA) for president, but elected a Republican – Mike Lawler – to the House. It’s entirely conceivable that seat would be one of the first to get swept up in a blue wave.
Furthermore, it wasn’t that long ago that Democrats were able to heavily contend in the Suffolk-based NY-01 and even flip the Staten Island-based NY-11. The lines haven’t changed much – NY-01 is actually now more competitive on paper than it was last decade – but the Democrats’ brand in New York certainly has.
If Hochul is insinuating that the problem with the IRC is its exact setup, we can agree. But if her trouble is with the IRC as a concept, that’s a bridge too far in a state that craves one-party rule.
Where the Answer Really Is
Hochul says that the current plight by the administration is to “fight fire with fire” and be ready for 2028.
Fighting fire with fire can certainly be a good strategy, but eventually and without reproach, the entire house burns down.
Our solution: a federal law or even constitutional amendment to ban mid-decade redistricting, save for court-ordered redraws in the cases of partisan and/or racial gerrymandering.
Mid-decade redistricting is uncommon as is. That’s why the current mad dash is so surprising to many. One could argue there shouldn’t be a need for all of this – “why can’t we all just get along?” – but in reality, there shouldn’t be an avenue to begin with. Every state gets to redraw every ten years to reflect changes within the population, not to score points for the next election. Both parties do it incessantly and more egregiously than they have in recent memory. The Texas GOP might have kicked this battle, but the gerrymandering war has been going on since the early days of the republic.
At this point, it doesn’t matter who started it. What matters is what’s on the line.
Ban most mid-decade redistricting, institute a true IRC in New York, and win elections based on merit rather than narrative.
Easier said than done, we suppose…
