Governor Kathy Hochul’s (D) State of the State address for 2025 did set some big goals for the state, but fell short of addressing problems of massive significance to the people of New York.
For starters, the biggest issue facing the executive and the legislature of this state – regardless of party affiliation – is stemming out-migration. According to World Population Review, In 2024, New York led the nation for the fourth consecutive year in population loss, amounting to a 0.91% decline, with Illinois and Louisiana not far behind. Usual suspects included those that have already been hemorrhaging population, such as California, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
But New York’s outmigration problems must be considered in their own part of the Venn Diagram. A state that has so miraculously fallen out of its once internationally-venerable standing is now the top place people within the U.S. are fleeing.
A hint to Hochul and some Democrats in the legislature: it’s not a perception problem.
This type of gaslighting is exactly why Donald Trump (R-FL) entered the election with a higher favorability rating – albeit underwater – than that of Kathy Hochul within New York State. It’s also why the GOP performed a clean sweep this election and why so many states shifted obdurately to the Republican Party nationally, a possible harbinger of long-term trends coming to roost.
Hochul’s problem? The Electoral College.
Yes, while presiding over the certification of New York’s electoral votes for Kamala Harris (D-CA), she took a point of personal privilege to denounce the unique institution by which we elect our leaders.
“Unfairly, less populated states have outsized influence and in fact, the votes of their residents count more than a state like New York,” she from the dais in the Senate chamber, later using an example of the ratio of electoral votes to population to show why the “smaller” states have more say than a much bigger one like New York – which, again, just so happens to be shrinking into one of the “smaller” states by the minute, no thanks to her and her cohort.
“No offense to Wyoming,” she quipped, still using the reference as a proof of concept that presidential elections should be decided by the popular vote.
Democrats now worry of an “Electoral College bias,” in which enough states are moving or have already moved to the GOP so that swing state wins become less consequential to their electoral prospects. Democrats exploit this as a flaw of the College.
In fact, it’s a feature. Why wouldn’t and why shouldn’t states with attractive landscapes for taking home more pay, feeling safe in the big city, and having legislative bodies that represent constituents be punished for being so attractive? A so-called “bias” within the College doesn’t represent an imbalanced political system; it rewards states where it is objectively better to live.
Democrats had a virtual lock on the Senate from 1955 until 1995, with just six years in the 1980s where the GOP had a slim majority. From our research, we can’t find spirited attempts at challenging the fabric of our government simply because one party was dominant. Democrats in their respective states made good on their promises in the post-New Deal era and formed a broad coalition that is only now just falling apart under current Democratic leadership.
We say this to illuminate the point that Hochul already does not seem intent on reversing New York’s harrowing outmigration trends. Moreover, she seems more fixed on making excuses and blaming voters for their choices than understanding why they’re upset with her and Albany. The sense of entitlement precedes many in powerful political circles, but Democrats seem much more resistant to letting go of classical power consolidation methods and the “wait your turn” model of winning elections rather than just trying to win elections by campaigning on issues and fixing them.
Hochul’s political instincts have also reached new lows in the wake of the horrific crime perpetrated by an illegal migrant from Guatemala. On December 22, the savage murder took place on an F Train car idling at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue station. The victim has been identified as Debrina Kawam, 57, of Toms River, New Jersey, who was asleep on the train around 7:30 that morning. Current reports detail a troubled life with spotty details, and it seems likely Kawam was possibly mentally-disturbed and likely a vagrant who frequented parts of the city.
Her killer, Sebastian Zapeta-Calil, 33, torched Kawam’s clothing with a lighter and eagerly watched the blaze from a platform bench, as Kawam was seen in footage standing and bracing the train doors as she was burned beyond recognition, according to police.
Zapeta-Calil evaded police, who weren’t aware that he was their suspect, only for him to be identified by NYC youth. He was apprehended on another train, with a lighter in his pocket, likely ready to burn someone alive again.
Enter Governor Hochul, who, in her sage tone-deafness, just hours after the unconscionable act in such a heavily-utilized public space, put out a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, bragging about subway safety and how her March initiative to deploy the National Guard to patrol the transit system has led to a decrease in crime.
Enter more gaslighting, a big theme in this past election. Headlines used to just openly gaslight the public about how great their lives are, how much crime is down, and how the economy is actually very strong. Now, their headlines openly admit that they’re trying to gaslight the public. There’s no admittance of wrongdoing, just simply more gaslighting.
“Inflation is Actually Cooling. Why Don’t More Americans Feel It?” is a quick example of just the types of headlines we saw. Allow us to translate.
“What We’re Saying Isn’t True, but How Come the Public Doesn’t Believe Us?”
If there’s one thing Hochul and company have clearly learned from this election, it is that wins and losses don’t come down to actual policy; they come down to perception.They think that their messaging was the problem, not the crux of their promises and the results of their actions. Next time, they’ll surely get it right by giving the same terrible script to different, but still lousy, actors.
Her staunch defenders then rushed to her aid, saying that violent crime is merely “part in parcel” of living in a big city.
The correct number of people burnt alive in a big city in 0.
Sure, a bigger population center means a rise in probability that crimes occur. But this was, on top of being unimaginably heartless, completely preventable, and with leadership clearly lacking in a spinal column, it’s unlikely that criminals and law-abiding, tax-paying citizens alike will take her seriously any time soon.
If you need the National Guard patrolling your subways, they’re not safe. It’s a clear indication that they’re more dangerous than they’ve been in decades.
And yet, New York leaders have the nerve to tell Curtis Sliwa and the Guardian Angels to “stand down” and let the officials handle it.
How has that worked out for New York? For Debrina Kawam? For the hundreds of thousands who have fled a state once equivalent to the Promised Land in the U.S.?
While Hochul did finally admit during her State of the State address that transit crime is out of control, she pledged to have a police officer on “every single train overnight – 9:00p.m. to 5:00a.m. – over the next six months and the State will support these efforts financially.”
What she failed to do was offer how the state can afford that initiative, as well as identifying causes of crime. She makes no indication of a reversal of sanctuary state and city policies, nor did she address any substantive policy initiatives. Just symbolic semantics that merely aim to slap band-aids on the crack in the dam.
Hochul is just one of those lousy actors, and her gloating Tweet just hours after a horrific, unnecessary attack is proof that her political instincts are declining just as fast as the state’s population, and voters’ perceptions aren’t wrong about how poor shape New York is in.
