Cover credit – Donald Trump campaign
National
A crucial USA Today poll released on Monday tracks the presidential candidates’ support among key demographics.
The survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) with 45% of the vote to former President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) 44%, a closer race than the one that was tracked in August which showed Harris with a five-point lead – 48%-43%.
The poll was conducted by landline and cellphone through October 14 and 18 and surveyed 1,000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
By a margin of 57%-37%, voters believe that Harris has not done enough to clearly explain her policies if she were elected. Nearly one-quarter of her supporters believe they want to hear more specific plans.
However, Trump’s supporters are somewhat more confident in his marketing. 49% said he had done enough to explain his policies, while 48% believe he hasn’t. Just 15% of his supporters want to learn more about his platform if he were to return to Washington for a second non-consecutive term.
More shockingly, the poll found a dramatic backslide in Harris support among minority voters.
In August, Harris had consolidated Latino support by a margin of 53%-37%, still relatively underwhelming for how Democrats have fared nationally in recent elections.
The USA Today poll finds Trump leading Harris among Latino voters by eleven points: 49%-38%.
Among black voters, Harris (pictured above) fares better, but has still experienced an erosion in support. The August survey found Harris leading among black voters by 76%-12%. Her margin slipped to 72%-17%. While at face value only a marginal shift, Trump is garnering support from black voters at levels not seen since the 1970s.
USA Today notes that the margins of error in the subsamples for the two demographics is +/- nine points, meaning there is less confidence in their particular study of these groups than there is for their survey at large. This means that there is a potential shift of eighteen points in either direction. While other polls show Harris with decent Latino and black support, Trump has been courting these voters specifically, and much polling has shown stronger-than-usual support for the Republican nominee among these demographics than that to which the party is usually accustomed.
For context, Joe Biden (D-DE) took 92% of black voters and 59% of Latino voters. Even a slight shift among these voting blocs towards Donald Trump could deliver him the election.
The poll also found Trump leading among male voters by 53%-37%, while Harris leads by a near-identical margin among female voters, 53%-36%.
In other campaign news, President Trump made perhaps his most infamous campaign stop yet: McDonald’s.
The former president stopped at the Golden Arches in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a key suburban county of Philadelphia that serves as one of the state’s premier battlegrounds. His intention: to work at McDonald’s longer than Kamala Harris. Trump says that his brief stint serving fries to drive-through customers came from a fabrication from Harris, where she claims she worked at the fast food chain when she was younger, despite the lack of corroboration.
Trump exchanged his suit jacket for an apron and interacted with customers at the drive-through window. (pictured above)
The move is regarded as one of Trump’s ability to connect with middle-class Americans, as well as to put himself amongst the rank-and-file to contrast Harris’ alleged dishonesty on the subject.
“Some in the press called Trump’s McDonald’s photo-op bizarre. This is how you lose credibility. That was a home run photo-op. He looked like a real person there, connecting with the average American. If you can’t see that, you’re totally blind,” wrote Cenk Uygur on X, formerly known as Twitter. Uygur serves as one of the founding members and hosts of the Young Turks, a political online talk show consisting of highly progressive viewpoints and advocacy.
State
The Siena College released their latest poll conducted from October 13 to 17, among 872 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.
Harris leads Trump by nineteen points in the presidential race, an increase from her thirteen-point margin last month. She leads him by 58%-39%. Voters contend that Harris would handle abortion (64%-31%) and democracy (58%-38%) better than Trump. New Yorkers also feel that Harris would handle the economy (52%-46%) and immigration (50%-46%) better than Trump.
Harris has 88% of Democratic support, while Trump has 87% of Republican support.
The poll also finds that voters view Harris favorably – 54%-43% – while they view Trump unfavorably – 38%-60%.
Mike Sapraicone (R-Floral Park) trails Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) by twenty-six points – 57%-31%.
The College also finds voters support Proposition One by an overwhelming margin of 69%-22%. Republicans oppose it 50%-36%, while 89% of Democrats and 62% of Independents support the constitutional amendment.
Governor Kathy Hochul (D) also remains unfavorable and with a negative job approval. The College tracks her favorability at 36%-51%, up slightly from last month, and her job approval at 41%-51%, also up slightly from last month.
The poll also finds that a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all view her unfavorably.
Meanwhile, 51% of voters find that the state is headed in the wrong direction, down slightly from 55% who held that position in September.
President Biden’s job approval is now 50%-49%, up from 47%-53% last month.
Local
A Siena College poll, sponsored by Newsday, finds that Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) leads challenger John Avlon (D-Gramercy Park) by three points – 47%-44%, leading Trump by just one point in NY-01.
This is a contrast from two recent polls. A Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates poll from late September gave LaLota an eight-point lead over Avlon, while a Cygnal poll from earlier this month found LaLota leading by nine points.
In local news, County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) has announced the launch of a website to update residents on the study of County Route (CR) 39 in Tuckahoe to alleviate traffic in a major East End artery.
The County’s Department of Public Works (DPW) has launched the page to keep residents informed as Romaine intends to fulfill a core component of his campaign platform of remediating roads and improving the quality of life through traffic studies.
“Making information readily available to residents is the surest way to alleviate concerns around ongoing studies and potential projects,” said Romaine. “It is important the community is aware of the work the DPW is doing to improve this important roadway.”
The study is hoping to develop, evaluate, and identify long-term solutions and improvements to reduce traffic congestion, minimize local detours, and improve overall safety. Residents can submit their comments and suggestions to [email protected]
