Since President Joe Biden (D-DE) made the unprecedented decision of suspending his campaign earlier this month, Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) has risen as his most likely successor. Endorsed by Biden and a slew of high-profile Democrats, a Harris candidacy seems more than likely at this point, as not only have a majority of delegates reportedly pledged their support for her at the Democratic National Convention later this month, but the transition from her status as Vice President to the top of the ticket makes electoral sense if Democrats want to put their best bet forward going into uncharted political waters.
But since Harris has her sights on the Oval Office, the biggest scramble has not been on Biden’s ability to continue to run the country, rather whom Harris might select as her running mate. Reports indicate that Harris is set to hit the campaign trail with her vice presidential nominee as early as next week.
It’s common knowledge that the vice presidential running mate is one of the biggest assets a presidential ticket can have. Not only is presidential succession on the line, but the vice president can dramatically “balance the ticket” and leverage support from demographics otherwise uninterested in his/her candidacy.
The Democratic strategy has undoubtedly been turned on its head since Biden dropped out of the race, a move not made by an incumbent president since Lyndon Johsnon (D-TX) in 1968. While Biden was able to leverage his Scranton-born, working-class image with near-fifty years in Washington, thirty-six of them as a Senator from Delaware and eight of them as vice president under a president who was elected on significantly populist overtones, Harris now loses that marketing strategy. Instead, the top of the ticket is run by a San Francisco progressive who consistently scored at the very bottom of the list of bipartisan lawmakers during her time in the Senate.
It’s also unlikely that Democrats have spared themselves any political liabilities associated with Biden by dropping him for Harris, as Harris has been a steadfast component of the Biden Administration. Separating her image from her own involvement in Biden’s policies is not akin to starting over with a clean slate. Moreover, Harris will likely have to answer to any approval, even tacit approval, of Biden’s policies that likely would have resulted in a referendum election on a Biden America versus a Trump America.
Harris will also have to grapple with the possibility of historical popularity problems. While polling right now suggests Harris has made the election more even against Trump, some say it’s the classic “honeymoon effect” that is likely to dissipate by Labor Day, the official-unofficial kickoff of the general election. Detractors say that Harris’ stunning unpopularity in the 2020 presidential primaries, hallmarked by low polling numbers in her home state of California and her withdrawal just before that state’s primary on Super Tuesday, will not coalesce into fervent support come Election Day.
Essentially, Democrats overall seem to be running, not necessarily on a Biden-Harris-VP TBD slate of policies, but rather against Trump at any costs. While this strategy will undoubtedly win over ardent Democrats, it remains to be seen if it can attract a significant chunk of Independents and disaffected Republicans. Many national and state polls before the Biden dropout had Trump leading generously among Independents and showed him earning more support from Republicans than Biden was from Democrats.
All said, balancing the ticket will be Harris’ top strategy going into November. Exchanging her largely-liberal, urban California, progressive profile for a more moderate, working-class politician from a working-class state is likely to be her move. The shortlist of apparent contenders speaks to this strategy.
We’ll evaluate the names we understand are circulating within the Democratic campaign, as well as several others that have been floated in other circles.
Governor Josh Shapiro
Office: Governor of Pennsylvania since 2023
Pros: Shapiro hails from the Rust Belt state Democrats might need the most help in holding. Any path to victory for either party lies through Pennsylvania, as it did in the previous two elections. Shapiro has a long list of credentials in Pennsylvania politics, ranging from the State House, to Montgomery County, to Attorney General, to being elected Governor in 2022. Shapiro held the governorship in a year Republicans should have been able to flip it, facing a term-limited incumbent and on-paper fortuitous electoral prospects. Nevertheless, Doug Mastriano (R) won the primary, allowing Shapiro to win by a whopping fifteen points. Shapiro has presided over rising bond ratings and enjoys 49%-31% approval ratings.
Cons: Shapiro’s electoral mandate in 2022 is, in part, due to a flawed Mastriano candidacy and a divided Pennsylvania GOP. Had both been more effective during the campaign, the race likely would have been much closer. This isn’t to detract from his victory or time in office, rather to accurately paint his initial popularity with Pennsylvanians. Some also accuse Shapiro of not threading the Israel-Gaza issue as well as other Democratic leaders, a move Democrats fear might lead to ideological schisms and depressed turnout. While Shapiro’s approval rating is net-positive double-digits, he still only attracts a plurality of voters and less than half of Independents. Some also point out his support for $100 million in private school vouchers, a GOP-led initiative that Shapiro later backed away from. Harris choosing Shapiro also increases the possibility of Democrats losing the governorship in the next election.
Senator Mark Kelly
Office: U.S. Senator from Arizona since 2020
Pros: An astronaut with no prior political experience, Mark Kelly won the special election for Arizona’s Senate seat in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win that seat since 1962. Kelly is more of a self-proclaimed moderate in the Senate, calling for more oil drilling to lower gas prices, rejecting the “Green New Deal,” and calling for more resources to the southern border. While Democrats might not “need” Arizona, a victory there with its eleven electoral votes virtually guarantees Harris the presidency. Kelly would certainly be an asset in that regard.
Cons: While Kelly holds some views considered more moderate, or even palatable to conservatives, he has still racked up some more liberal policies, such as supporting late-term abortions, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and gun control measures. Kelly became a highly outspoken advocate for gun control after the shooting of his wife, then-Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D, AZ-08). Kelly’s comments on increased border security may or may not clash if he were to run alongside the “Border Czar” in Harris, under whom the southern border situation has become largely exasperated. Finally, vacating the seat would create another special election in Arizona. Since 2016, Arizona has had a Senate election every two years. Kelly would resign the seat either before or after November, followed by an appointment from Governor Hobbs (D) and an ensuing special election. As control of the Senate seems likely to flip towards Republicans this cycle, keeping every man on deck in a tightly-controlled chamber might overpower what slight advantages Kelly might have over an alternative.
Governor Andy Beshear
Office: Governor of Kentucky since 2019
Pros: Beshear stunned the political world by winning a gubernatorial election in deep-red Kentucky in 2019. He was re-elected by a five-point margin in 2023. Beshear holds moderate views on gun rights and even allowed a Kentucky bill to become law without his signature, requiring doctors to perform care on infants and fetuses. Beshear is also one of the most popular governors in the country, with the latest Morning Consult polls putting him at 67%-28%.
Cons: Name recognition. While the Democratic Party is trying to extend Harris’ name recognition from an already-decent position, they’ll have a field day doing the same with Beshear. While not insurmountable, a campaign with an extraordinarily short runway might benefit from someone with more clout. Additionally, Beshear was elected governor of Kentucky over a deeply unpopular incumbent in Matt Bevin (R). As gubernatorial races are more about local issues and candidate quality, it’s not a massive stretch for candidates of opposing political parties to win in their home states. Vermont, one of the bluest states, has an immensely-popular Republican governor, Phil Scott. While Beshear is popular in Kentucky, it doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate to all Democratic voters across the country.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Office: Secretary of Transportation
Pros: Buttigieg has been a day-one Cabinet member in the Biden Administration, after running for president in 2020 and serving as Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg took a narrow and nominal win in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses in 2020 and demonstrated strength going into the primaries, but dropped out before Super Tuesday. Buttigieg is young (42), aligns with most, if not all, progressive values, and can possibly help Harris with outreach to Midwestern voters. His cult-classic following in the 2020 election will likely coalesce to younger voters, a demographic who have largely soured on Biden within the last year.
Cons: In 2020, many South Bend residents took to the media to decry Buttigieg’s ineffectiveness during his two terms as South Bend Mayor, citing racial disparities, high crime, and low quality of life. Buttigieg’s proposed spending plans during his 2020 campaign included trillions of dollars in government programs, a price tag many Americans might not be comfortable with, especially as Harris is mostly aligned ideologically with Buttigieg. Additionally, Buttigieg is not likely to help Harris make a dent in Indiana, a red state, and his lack of connections in other Rust Belt states might not help her as a prominent elected official from that region would. His position that the Electoral College should be abolished is not likely to go over well in states whose electoral votes will decide the presidency for either campaign.
Governor Tim Walz
Office: Governor of Minnesota since 2019
Pros: Walz served over ten years in Congress from MN-01, a mostly-rural district covering the entire southern border of the state. Walz received high ratings from the NRA but passed laws on universal background checks and red-flag laws for prospective gun owners in 2023. As a former public school teacher and Army National Guardsman, along with a small-town Midwestern appeal, Walz would provide a unique palette to the ticket if selected, likely bolstering Harris’ support among Independents and helping her retain Minnesota. Walz, like Governor Beshear, could help Harris with voters beyond her reach.
Cons: Walz will likely suffer from the same problem Beshear would: name recognition. Walz isn’t particularly known outside of Minnesota, but bridging that gap would likely be easier than another lesser-known candidate. Walz also received scrutiny for the riots of the summer of 2020, during which the Twin Cities faced billions in property damage.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Office: Governor of Michigan since 2019
Pros: Whitmer has had a storied career in politics, ranging from prosecutorial roles, Michigan Senate Minority Leader, and Vice Chair of the DNC. She was re-elected in 2022, expanding slightly on her comfortable 2018 margin. As Governor, she is known for signing sweeping tax cuts and campaigning on a “fix the damn roads” platform. Her standing in Michigan would likely be a large boon to the Harris ticket in a state where Trump has had consistent polling leads since November. Both campaigns view Michigan as a must-win on their paths to victory.
Cons: Whitmer might not balance the ticket enough for Harris to leverage her own candidacy. While Harris and Whitmer are likely to have strengths with women, having a moderate pick for vice president might help make the candidates slightly more dissimilar. Whitmer’s political experience might leave some wishing that she were the head of the ticket, not Harris, especially when Harris’ gaffes and lack of experience in local governance might come into question. Whitmer also faces questions for Michigan’s undercounting of COVID-19 nursing homes deaths by 42% and policies similar to that of New York, where COVID-positive patients were allowed into nursing homes, although the policy was not as sweeping as the New York mandate.
Governor J. B. Pritzker
Office: Governor of Illinois since 2019
Pros: Pritzker flipped the Illinois governorship in 2018, ousting unpopular incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) by a near-sixteen-point margin. Pritzker is a member of the eponymous family that owns the Hyatt hotel chain. Pritzker has a net worth of $3.5 billion, a monumental fundraising network, and the ability to self-fund parts of the campaign. Pritzker also demonstrated strength in Republican-leaning suburban areas in his 2017 election. Harris selecting Pritzker as her running mate would not only mean a massive cash injection to her campaign, but Pritzker also checks nearly all the boxes on the liberal-progressive scorecard.
Cons: Pritzker’s wealth might pose some dissension within Democratic ranks, albeit not likely enough to seriously damage their base, as some voters might feel his addition to the ticket brings a level of corporatism out of touch with some voters. Pritzker’s liberal scorecard, along with Harris’ far-left platform, might be too much for centrist Democrats and Independents to stomach. Furthermore, Pritzker lost ground in his 2022 re-election, winning by just over twelve points over Darren Bailey (R), considered by some to be “far right.”
As of now, only one candidate is reported to have withdrawn his name from consideration: Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC).
Cooper was elected Governor of North Carolina in 2016, ousting a Republican incumbent and securing a decent re-election in 2020. Cooper has demonstrated his ability to win in a highly-partisan, red-leaning battleground state, but suffered limited legislative powers during much of his term as governor due to Republican supermajorities in the state legislature.
Cooper was seen as a potential ticket-balancer for Harris and a foot in the door to put North Carolina and its sixteen electoral votes back on the map. However, Cooper withdrew his name from consideration on Monday. Democrats believe Cooper is playing defense in his home state, as the state constitution stipulates that the lieutenant governor assumes the governor’s job in the latter’s absence. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) is seen as a strident conservative, who is running for governor this year.
A vice presidential pick is expected to be announced Monday for a following marquee rally with the 2024 Democratic ticket soon thereafter.
