In perhaps one of the most surprising boomerangs of the many thrown thus far in the 2024 election, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has abandoned his long-shot Independent bid for the White House and has thrown his support behind former President Donald J. Trump (R-FL).
The move comes just after the RFK team, with Kennedy himself joined by running mate Nicole Shanahan, hosted a roundtable with more than two hundred members of American media, with The Messenger in attendance. The purpose of the roundtable was to discuss the meteoric rise of RFK and his near-insurmountable task of obtaining ballot access in all fifty states. No one had accomplished such a task since Ross Perot (I-TX) did in 1992, an election that required a fraction of the ballots the RFK campaign did and literally set the stage to ensure that no such third-party bid could be mounted again.
RFK did the unthinkable and proved them wrong, and from the tone of the media roundtable, it seemed full steam ahead for the descendant of perhaps the most beloved Democratic scion in American history.
But that momentum apparently unraveled, or might not have existed as advertised, as just two weeks after the media roundtable, RFK addressed the nation in Phoenix to announce the suspension of his campaign.
While RFK’s move is certainly deemed admirable by many conservatives, it begs the question of just how much momentum the campaign actually had until the very moment RFK dropped out and endorsed Trump, just before Labor Day weekend, no less, which is typically seen as the official-unofficial kickoff of the campaigns.
Some believe the move to be disingenuous, as RFK took on a monumental campaign to contend with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) nationwide, only for him to drop out just after the campaign made their unthinkable goal.
We had our suspicions that Kennedy was only in this to throw the election to Trump. Abandoning his Democratic primary effort against Biden and running a race where polling indicated to a zero-sum game in which Trump invariably walked away with almost all forms of vote-splitting advantages were two tenets that made us think RFK knew he couldn’t win, but he could help someone else win.
Furthermore, in the spring, one of the campaign’s top ballot access consultants said on CNN that her “top priority” was ensuring Biden was denied a second term, and that if there was any path to victory for Trump in New York, it included Kennedy on the ballot.
At this point, we believe there was more to gain from Kennedy backing Trump than there was from him remaining on the ballot. It’s one thing to have notable endorsees from other strains of thought or political parties, but it’s another to have a member of perhaps the most beloved Democratic political dynasty back someone who, according to the modern left, is such a “danger to democracy.”
That alone is probably the logic behind the sudden suspension and eye-opening endorsement. If Trump can expect three or four points of support from the Kennedy movement, that could make a substantial difference in what’s expected to be a close election.
It’s no doubt a tough pill to swallow for the tens of thousands of volunteers who door knocked and collected signatures for months to get their guy on the ballot, and Kennedy’s decision to suspend is certainly one his most ardent supporters are not eager to relish.
But the Kennedy name and family was one that seemed likely to galvanize young voters heavily dissatisfied with the major party nominees and bring home a considerable amount of older voters who consider themselves “Kennedy Democrats.” Those avenues for ticket-splitting have now collapsed, and it remains to be seen just how many of those voters Trump will be able to court. Kennedy’s vocal endorsement and alarm-raising about Harris’ candidacy and the Democrats’ platform might be enough to sway those who can’t stomach Trump, but whose views don’t align at all with the modern Democratic Party.
Kennedy isn’t alone in the only notable Democrat-turned-Independent endorsing Trump. On Monday, former Hawaii Congresswoman and former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard publicly endorsed Trump. While Democrats have the “Republicans for Harris” initiative, a list of Republicans who are virtually irrelevant backing the vice president, Trump now has a member of the Kennedy dynasty and one of the most outspoken Democrats from one of the bluest states in the country.
Although Trump selected a fellow Republican as his running mate, and one who was broadly seen as the least likely to net Trump crossover votes, he has the de facto makings of a fusion ticket, a historical rarity in American presidential politics.
Should the votes play out as they would in a bona fide fusion ticket, Trump stands to take in a significant portion of the moderate Democratic electorate, one who feels increasingly estranged from the discourse and policies of the current party.
