National
In addition to the Democratic primary for New York’s First Congressional District, several states hosted primaries that will affect the makeup of Congress next year.
Perhaps the most notable result of the night was that of New York’s Sixteenth Congressional District. Two-term incumbent Jamaal Bowman (D) was defeated by Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D) in the Democratic primary.
NY-16 is composed mostly of Westchester County, ranging from Yonkers and New Rochelle towards White Plains, Rye Brook, Elmsford, and Tarrytown. It also contains a small portion of the Bronx, including Eastchester and Co-op City. It is a staunchly Democratic district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+20, meaning that it is about twenty points more Democratic than the nation overall. The district is almost 40% white, almost 30% Hispanic, and 20% black.
In 2020, Bowman ousted longtime incumbent Eliot Engel (D) with 55%. Engel served in the House from 1989 until 2021. His loss was mainly attributed to his shirking of matters important to the community, namely the riots and protests of the summer of 2020. Engel was caught on hot mic saying that if he “didn’t have a primary,” he “wouldn’t care” about the protest he attended.
Bowman won the general election that year with 84% of the vote over Conservative Patrick McManus. Republicans did not field a candidate that year. Bowman was re-elected in 2022 with 64% of the vote to Miriam Flisser’s (R) 35%.
Bowman, a founder and former principal of the Cornerstone Academy for Social Action, a public middle school in Eastchester, earned notoriety late last year for willfully setting off a false fire alarm in the Cannon House Office Building to disrupt a House vote on a spending measure to keep the government open.
Bowman is also a self-avowed member of the “Squad,” a group of a far-left House Democrats, founded by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14), Ilhan Omar (D, MN-05), Ayanna Pressley (D, MA-07), and Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-12). Later additions include Bowman, as well as Cori Bush (D, MO-01), Greg Casar (D, TX-35), Summer Lee (D, PA-12), and Delia Ramirez (D, IL-03).
Bowman’s primary loss is the first suffered for the Squad, as well as for House Democrats in general this year. With 93% of precincts reporting, Latimer defeated Bowman 58.4% to 41.6%. Latimer had hefty leads in the polls leading up to the primary.
Squad members are now on notice, as Latimer’s resounding defeat of Bowman takes on progressive politics in a staunchly liberal bastion of the country. Congressman Woman Bush has been trailing Prosecuting Attorney for St. Louis County Wesley Bell in two polls conducted. A February poll showed Bell with a twenty-two point lead, and a poll from last week shows him a one-point lead.
Bush, like Bowman, ousted a more entrenched member of the House, William Lacy Clay (D) in 2020. She attempted to primary Clay in 2018, but lost by twenty points. Bush was successful in 2020, ousting Clay by just three points. Bush defeated Anthony Rogers (R) with almost 80% of the vote in 2020, followed by 72% of the vote over Andrew Jones (R) in 2022.
Bowman has not released a statement on his defeat as of Wednesday night. On June 13, he posted a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, decrying AIPAC’s donations to Latimer’s campaign, saying it was a race of “many vs. the money.”
Latimer is virtually guaranteed to represent the district in Congress due to its deep-blue character. He faces Miriam Flisser (R) in November.
Also regarding New York, Senator John Mannion (D-Geddes) earned the right to challenge freshman Congressman Brandon Williams (R, NY-22) in the swingy Syracuse-based district. NY-22 became slightly more Democratic with the mid-year redraw, branding Williams as one of the most vulnerable House incumbents. Mannion also leaves behind the highly-competitive Fiftieth Senate District, taking in parts of exurban Syracuse and Oswego County. Mannion defeated Rebecca Shiroff (R) by just ten votes out of over 123,000 cast in 2022. The open seat provides the Senate GOP with an auspicious pickup opportunity in November.
In other primary news, Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R, CO-03) has won the primary to run in the vacant CO-04. Congressman Ken Buck (R) resigned earlier this year citing massive dysfunction in Washington as his primary reason for leaving early. The district has been vacant since then. Greg Lopez (R) won the special election by twenty-five points to fill the vacancy on Tuesday night, but he is not running in the general election.
Boebert received the endorsement of Donald Trump (R-FL) and, with a wide field of candidates, split the votes to win the nomination. She faces Trisha Calvarese, who narrowly won the Democratic Primary on Tuesday.
CO-04 is the entire eastern third of Colorado, sharing the border with Kansas. The most Republican district in the state, CO-04 is home to flat farmlands and working-class voters. Boebert’s controversial positions and personality might make this race more engaged as the campaign continues.
With Boebert’s win in CO-04, Republicans have a better shot at holding CO-03, an idiosyncratic district that encompasses the western part of the state. Once more Republican, the district has become home to mountainous mining communities, union blue-collar households, a hefty Hispanic population, and liberal ski resorts, creating a competitive environment in the last several cycles. Bobert primaried Congressman Scott Tipton (R) in 2020, leading to a tight win that year and one of the closest House races in 2022.
In Utah, mainstream Governor Spencer Cox (R) fended off a primary challenge from more populist Phil Lyman. Utah voters also selected Congressman John Curtis (R, UT-03) to replace outgoing Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT). Curtis, seen as the more mainstream candidate, defeated Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, the Trump-endorsed candidate. Curtis is highly likely to be the next U.S. Senator from ruby-red Utah. He faces Caroline Gleich (D) in November.
In presidential news, a recent Embold Research poll of 1,450 likely Rhode Island voters found President Joe Biden (D-DE) with just a seven-point lead over Donald Trump, with 12% support going to Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. The slim lead is far down from Biden’s nineteen-point lead as recorded by a May poll of 538 likely voters conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Rhode Island has not backed a Republican presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan (R-CA) in 1984. Its only Republican votes since 1932 have come in the form of national landslides of 1952, 1956, 1972, and 1984. Biden won the Ocean State by over twenty points in 2020.
Finally, in RFK’s quest for ballot access, he has submitted the required number of signatures for Illinois (19 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19). He has now obtained access or submitted signatures in twenty-five states, collectively representing 348 electoral votes.
State
Siena College released their latest poll conducted from June 12 to 17 among 805 registered voters.
President Biden leads Donald Trump by just eight points, bringing his polling average below double-digits according to 270toWin. Both Siena College and Emerson College have found Biden to be hovering in the high-single digits and low-double digits with and without third-party candidates on the ballot.
Furthermore, Siena College ranked Biden’s favorability rating in New York at an all-time low, registering eleven points underwater, 42%-53%. The rating is down from a -5 favorability rating in May. His job approval rating also worsened to 45%-53%. Siena also found that Biden maintains support of 75% of Democrats, while Trump has 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45%-28% among Independents. Trump attracts support of 29% of black voters and 26% of Latino voters.
Siena also tracks Hochul with her lowest-ever favorability and job approval ratings. Her favorability sits at eleven points underwater – 38%-49% – and her job approval rating sits at six points underwater – 44%-50%.
Voters across party lines support her decisions to temporarily suspend the congestion pricing plan – 45%-23%, with 16% neutral. Voters also think the state legislature should have passed the Plastics Reduction Act – 58%-31% in favor – and the Heat Act – 58%-26%.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%, meaning Trump is gradually coming closer to polling within the margin of error against Biden.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R, NY-01) has signed on as a cosponsor of the bicameral Allowing Greater Access to Safe and Effective Contraception Act, introduced by Congressman Ashley Hinson (R, IA-02).
The bill would enable women to access FDA-approved, routine-use birth control pills over the counter, require the FDA to give priority review to already-approved oral contraceptives for over-the-counter access, and require the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a study on the amount of federal funding that has gone towards supporting increased contraception access over the last fifteen years.
“Women across America deserve access to quality contraceptives. Ensuring access to contraceptives over-the-counter at the neighborhood pharmacy is common sense and good policy,” said LaLota. “This bill would remove birth control from excessive government regulations and bureaucratic red tape and erase barriers to access for millions of women. Contraceptives should be legal, safe, effective, and widely available for American families.”
