National
The presidential nominating contest continued to Indiana on Tuesday, offering no surprises in what has been an over-and-done race since March.
Former President Donald Trump (R-FL) handily won the primary with 78.2% of the vote with 90% of precincts reporting as of press time. He carried all ninety-two counties and took all fifty-eight delegates available. Now-suspended former Governor and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) took 21.8% of the statewide vote. Trump’s lowest margin of victory on the county level came in the form of Indianapolis’ Marion County, where earned 64.9% to Haley’s 35.1%.
President Joe Biden (D-DE) was uncontested for the Tuesday ballot, allowing to win by default and sweep up all seventy-nine of the Hoosier State’s delegates.
Indiana’s state ticket features significant turnover this year, with an open governor seat, an open Senate seat, and three open U.S. House Seats. Outgoing freshman Senator Mike Braun (R) won his party’s nomination for governor, while Congressman Jim Banks (R, IN-03) won the nod for Braun’s Senate seat.
Neither candidate should have trouble holding their respective seats, as Indiana last elected a Democratic governor in 2000 and last elected a Democratic Senator in 2012. Braun ousted two-term Senator Joe Donnelly (D) in the 2018 midterms.
Congresswoman Victoria Spartz (R, IN-05) initially planned to depart Congress after this year, but reversed course over the winter. She won a narrow primary to retain the suburban Indianapolis seat.
The only competitive seat from Indiana will likely be in the form of IN-01, a northwestern seat situated around Gary and the Chicago suburbs, held by Frank Mrvan (D) since 2021. Mrvan has name recognition from his father’s forty-year tenure in the Indiana Senate. On paper, Democrats should have a lock on this seat, but Trump came within ten points of carrying the seat in 2020, improving on his 2016 margin. Republicans had not run as close a race in this seat since 2004.
In other election news, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) recently signed a package that includes changes to the battleground state’s election laws. The changes define “probable causes” that allow for some voters to be removed from the rolls after their eligibility is challenged.
The bill, S.B. 189, lists death, evidence of voting or registering in a different jurisdiction, a nonresidential address, or tax exemptions that show a primary residence elsewhere as forms of probable cause that could result in a voter being removed from the rolls. Proponents of the bill say it purges voter rolls of inactive or ineligible voters, while opponents say it disproportionately affects minority voters.
Fair Fight Action, a voting rights group founded by two-time gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D), says that the bill is a “voter suppression bill that emboldens right-wing activists in their efforts to kick black and brown voters off the rolls.” The statement also said that by signing the bill, Governor Kemp “delivered a gift to MAGA election deniers.”
Abrams repeatedly denied her narrow loss to Kemp in 2018, claiming voter suppression and refused to concede.
S.B. 189 also grant’s access to Georgia’s ballot to any political party that qualifies for the presidential ballot in twenty states, a move that could possibly bolster Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., in his long-shot third-party bid for the White House. Analysts believe that a Kennedy presence on the ticket could spoil the election for Biden, especially in a battleground like Georgia, and aid Trump’s return to Washington.
In terms of the Kennedy campaign, the ticket has obtained ballot access in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Utah, collectively representing 123 electoral votes, less than halfway to the 270 required to win the election. Kennedy needs 45,000 signatures by the end of the month to qualify in New York.
Additionally, Kennedy sponsored a fifty-state poll of more than 26,000 voters with a margin of error of just 0.6%. While Kennedy concedes that a Trump-Biden ticket would result in a Trump presidency of about 297 electoral votes, the poll finds that if either of the mainstream candidates were to drop out and face Kennedy alone, the race would be much different. Kennedy touts the poll results as a means of dismissing claims that he is a spoiler candidate, and that, based on Zogby Strategies’ findings, that Biden is, in fact, the spoiler.
In a Kennedy-Biden scenario (top graphic), Kennedy wins in a landslide, carrying thirty-nine states and 340 electoral votes to Biden’s 158. Biden would carry Democratic strongholds such as Vermont, California, and his home state of Delaware by thin margins, while Kennedy would win every solid red state and most battlegrounds. Statistical ties were found in New York and Washington. Polls for the District of Columbia were not available on FiveThirtyEight, although it is assumed Biden would handily win the District.
In a Trump-Kennedy scenario (above graphic), the result is much different, with polls presented finding a deadlock between the two candidates. Kennedy would easily win most blue states, Trump would retain most red states, although with difficulty, while the two would effectively split the battlegrounds down the middle. In terms of raw numbers, Trump would carry twenty-seven states and 269 electoral votes. If Kennedy were given D.C., he would also clock in at 269 electoral votes, the scenario of an Electoral College tie that has never happened in American history. The election would then be decided by the House of Representatives.
The maps above are shaded according to the candidates’ margins of victory in each state, with lighter colors representing thinner margins, and darker colors indicating more decisive victories. Kennedy’s best numbers from either map come from Wyoming, where he polled forty-seven points above Biden. Trump’s best numbers came from West Virginia, where he outpolled Kennedy by twenty-eight points. Biden’s best numbers came from Maryland, where he beats Kennedy by nineteen points.
State
Governor Kathy Hochul (D) made an extreme gaffe at a Milken Institute Conference in Los Angeles on Monday. The Milken Institute is a “nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank focused on accelerating measurable progress on the path to a meaningful life,” as per their website. Hochul was in California to discuss technology advancements in New York, with hopes of becoming a new “Silicon Valley” via a supercomputer.
Her gaffe came in the form of trying to express the dichotomy between certain areas of the state and their technological prowess. Her quote came in the form of: “Right now, we have young black kids growing up in the Bronx who don’t even know what the word ‘computer’ is.”
Within context, Hochul discussed building a supercomputer to attract more federal grant money and making New York more accessible to researchers and college students. She said that no state has done this, followed by her gaffe, and concluded by saying that she wants “the world opened up to all of them [black kids] because when you have their diverse voices innovating solutions through technology, then you’re really addressing society’s broader challenges.”
Hochul received swift condemnation for her remarks, to which she replied that she “misspoke.”
“Of course Black children in the Bronx know what computers are — the problem is that they too often lack access to the technology needed to get on track to high-paying jobs in emerging industries like [artificial intelligence],” she said in response.
Assemblywoman Karines Reyes (D-Parkchester) said that she was “deeply disturbed” by the Governor’s remarks and that “our children are bright, brilliant, extremely capable, and more than deserving of any opportunities that are extended to other kids.”
Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-South Bronx) called the remarks “genuinely appalling.”
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) defended Hochul, saying that he is not the “word police” and that he “knows the Governor’s heart.
Local
Suffolk County Legislator Steve Englebright (D-Setauket) proposed a bill to ban restaurants and third-party food delivery services from including single-use plastic utensils and condiment packages unless specifically requested by a customer. The bill, Resolution 1371, was open to public hearing at Tuesday’s general meeting. Stakeholders voiced their support for the bill while also discussing the dangers of microplastics in the environment.
Englebright motioned to recess the bill for “two weeks” to make amendments.
“ I don’t want this to become an open-ended situation, but I would like an opportunity to speak to my colleagues, most particularly on the [Health] Committee,” said Englebright.
The bill was recessed with eleven votes to seven.
