Although remote from the continental U.S. and mostly removed from the political stage, Alaska has a history unlike any other state that makes it the anomaly it is today. As the most independent-leaning state in the country, Alaska can be viewed as a valuable barometer for national party standings among more moderate groups of the electorate.
Early History – Seward’s Folly
Alaska was first mapped by Europeans in the 1730s, mainly by Russian and Danish explorers. For decades, Russian traders used Alaska primarily for seasonal fur trapping. The first permanent settlement was established on Kodiak Island in 1784, and Catherine the Great sent Russian Orthodox monks to Kodiak Island and the Aleutian Islands in 1794. To this day, the western Alaskan islands have a vibrant Russian Orthodox community.
Alaskan fur trading exploded when Russian Czar Paul I created the Russian-American Company in 1799. The company sold furs across southern Alaska with China and even the Spanish in California. Interestingly, Spanish claims from 1493 included Alaska in its pole-to-pole stake, but they never settled in the area. From there, British and American companies took the Last Frontier to claim their stakes in the industry, which would establish a crucial economy in the fledgling territory.
Russian measures to prevent American merchants beyond a certain point in Alaska failed, further weakening their dominance in the area.
Near-extinction of several species and commercial difficulties led to Russia’s interest in selling Alaska. After its loss to Britain in the 1856 Crimean War, Russia looked to keep more territory out of British hands, especially since Canada was still under British control as “British North America.” Russia instead looked to the United States. Hesitant to purchase territory so soon after the Civil War, Secretary of State William Seward purchased Alaska for $7.2 million, earning him national ridicule with the phrase “Seward’s Folly.” Expansion into Alaska was slow, but Seward would later be vindicated by the vast amounts of gold and oil in Alaska, as well as national defense opportunities. Alaska’s population and economic booms would come in the form of the 1872 Alaska Gold Rush. With the discovery of gold in Sitka, a settlement in
Alaska’s panhandle, as well as in the Klondike River region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, more than 100,000 prospectors flocked to the area. Railroaders not only allowed for connections within the state, but discovered hundreds of species of flora and fauna in the process.
With regular settlement in Alaska, copper mining, commercial fishing, and canning became large industries that still remain dominant today.
Twentieth Century Politics -The “Decider” of 1960
Alaska was reorganized as the Territory of Alaska in 1912. Low population and lack of interest from Alaskans prevented early statehood efforts, and even prompted talks of the capital of Juneau becoming its own state. In the 1920s, Alaska was dependent on Seattle as a port connection under the Jones Act, and President Warren Harding (R-OH) became the first sitting president to visit Alaska.
The Great Depression tanked the prices of fish and copper. President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) looked to Alaska as a place of resettlement for Upper Midwestern farmers and black farmers from the South, as agricultural opportunity was fresh in the territory. The advent of the aviation era significantly helped the mapping of Alaska, but also led to Alaska’s high concentration of wreck sites due to the remote wilderness and unfavorable weather conditions.
Alaska would see a new economic boom during WWII: the defense industry. The construction of military bases would see some cities, such as Anchorage, double in size within just a few years. Unknown to many, Alaska was actually a site of combat during WWII, when the Japanese captured the western Aleutian islands of Kiska and Attu. After two weeks of fighting and nearly 4,000 American casualties, the U.S. recaptured the islands.
While Alaska’s remoteness and economic instability delayed its statehood, the Japanese invasion reinforced its strategic significance, and the discovery of oil gave Alaska an image of independence from the rest of the Lower 48. President Eisenhower (R-KS) signed Alaska into law as the forty-ninth and penultimate state on January 3, 1959.
The discovery of oil in Prudhoe Bay in 1968 would turn out to have the most recoverable oil of any oil field in the United States. The need for a pipeline led to the U.S. government paying the natives for their land. The pipeline was completed in 1977, allowing per capita income to rise in the state and financial stability to finally be acquired.
Alaska’s first election was in 1960. It narrowly backed Richard Nixon (R-CA) over general election winner John F. Kennedy (D-MA). Alaska had outsized importance in the election, as Nixon pledged to visit every state during his campaign. He stumped in Alaska just days before the election, a move that many believed allowed him to narrowly carry it by just under two points. However, some point out that Nixon’s time spent traveling to Alaska cost him time in valuable swing states that could have won him one of the closest elections in history.
Alaska was originally thought to be a solid blue state upon its admission, due to the heavy amount of organized labor and intrinsic progressive values. Women gained suffrage in Alaska in 1913, seven years before the passage of the Nineteenth Amendment. For much of its early statehood, Democrats had regular control of the state legislature. However, since its first election in 1960, Alaska has only voted for a Democratic candidate once: Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) in his 1964 landslide. Johnson won by more than thirty points over Barry Goldwater (R-AZ), making him the only Democrat to ever win Alaska.
Republicans would enjoy large margins in Alaska in every election, except in 1968 and 1992, with relatively thin margins for Republicans in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Since Johnson, only three Democrats have eclipsed 40% of the vote in Alaska: Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) in 1968, Barack Obama (D-IL) in 2012, and Joe Biden (D-DE) in 2020.
Alaska has the highest percentage of Independent voters out of any state in the nation, making 55% of the registered electorate. Republicans make up 26% and Democrats make up 14%. Alaska’s unique workforce, ancestral progressivism, and intrinsic independence from the rest of the country make nationalized politics difficult for many Alaska voters.
Geography – The Last Frontier
Unlike every other state, Alaska is divided into Boroughs – and one Unorganized Borough – instead of counties. Louisiana is divided into parishes, but they function more similarly to counties than Alaska’s Boroughs do.
- Inside Passage – The chain of islands that makes up Alaska’s panhandle and the border with British Columbia. Home to Juneau, Skagway, Sitka, and Ketchikan. The blue-red divide is mostly north-south, with Juneau leaning Democratic.
- Southcentral – Home to more than half the state’s population and the largest city, Anchorage. Solidly Republican on the presidential level, but evenly divided on the state level.
- Southwest – Home to Bethel, King Salmon, the Aleutian Islands, and most of Alaska’s fisheries. Heavy Native American populations make this area mostly Democratic, with the military-organized Aleutian Islands leaning Republican.
- Interior – Alaska’s heartland, home to Fairbanks, Mt. Denali – the continent’s tallest peak – and most of the Unorganized Borough. The most educated region in Alaska. Leans Democratic.
- Far North – Home to the sparsely populated Arctic Circle region of Alaska, the cradle of the state’s oil industry, the cities of Barrow, Nome, and Prudhoe Bay, and the tundra. This area has the most swing potential politically. It last voted Republican for John McCain (R-AZ) in 2008, but Trump was able to flip it in 2020, even as the state trended left.
Current Political Leanings – Possible Democratic Target
Alaska’s intrinsic Independent nature makes it both a possibility and a liability for both parties to get a leg up, namely Democrats. As Independents have swung for Democrats nationally in recent elections, Alaska has seen some shifts that might make it possible for Democrats to possibly contest the state. Gary Johnson’s (I-NM) third-party run in 2016 gave him almost 6% of the Alaska vote, his third-strongest state, allowing Trump to win Alaska by less than fifteen points, a relatively thin margin for such a Republican state. His margin shrunk further to just ten points in 2020, resting on the precipice of a “close” margin.
Alaska’s Independent nature was on display in 1992 and 1996, as Independent Ross Perot (I-TX) took 28% and 11% of the vote, respectively. Green Party nominee Ralph Nader (G-CT) took 10% in 2000.
Senator Lisa Murkowski, an obdurately moderate Republican, was primaried by a Tea Party candidate in 2010. She staged a write-in campaign and successfully won by four points in a stunning rebuke of nationalized politics, owing somewhat to her family name.
Alaska is also home to famous political dynasties, such as the Murkowskis, the Stevens, and the Begichs. Republicans currently control both Senate seats in Alaska, with Democrat Mark Begich being the last to win a Senate race here in 2008. He lost re-election in 2014. Democrats last held both Senate seats simultaneously in 1966.
Republicans held Alaska’s at-large congressional seat for almost fifty years with the venerable Don Young, the longest-served House Republican in history, until his passing in 2022. Voting reforms in Alaska introduced ranked-choice voting, which some have argued has allowed Mary Peltola to be the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972.
Democrats last governed the state in 2002, but Independent Bill Walker ran with a Democratic running mate in 2014. He suspended his campaign in 2018. Alaska is currently governed by Mike Dunleavy (R).
Alaska’s Independent nature currently sees nominal control of the state legislature by Republicans, as many in both chambers caucus with Democrats, and vice versa, to form a governing coalition.
Alaska’s quirky and elastic nature makes it a truly unique gem in American politics, with outsized importance. Trends might show Alaska moving leftward, but with just three electoral voters and a large remoteness from the rest of the country, it’s difficult to see regular campaigning in the Last Frontier.
