National
Now that the local 2023 elections have come and gone, all eyes turn to the big-ticket 2024 elections, including the hotly-contested presidential contest.
A huge question mark still hangs over the presidential contest, where the first presidential rematch since 1956 seems more likely as we barrel towards the primaries. Donald Trump (R-FL) and Joe Biden (D-DE) seem likely to recapture their respective party nominations based on polling, but national enthusiasm, voter burnout, legal troubles for both candidates, and the possibility of a contested convention for both parties continues to cast doubt on the trajectory of the race.
Current polling shows Trump beating Biden in almost all swing states, and even some thinner-than-usual margins for Biden in blue strongholds like New York. A recent Siena College poll of 803 registered voters in New York found Biden leading Trump by only 10 points in a two-way race, and by only nine points in a four-way race, with Independent Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) taking 18% of the vote and Kanye West taking 5%.
The third-party bid of RFK has the potential to amount to the large spoiling status of Ross Perot’s 1992 campaign, which many believe aided the election of Bill Clinton (D-AR) over an unpopular George H.W. Bush (R-TX). There is a correlation of an RFK presence on the ticket and a more likely Trump victory based on recent polls.
But polling one year out from an election should be taken with hefty grains of salt, especially since two weeks – let alone one year – is an eternity in an election season.
More telling of the political environment, however, is the near record-breaking list of Congressional retirements seen within the month of November.
Currently, twenty-nine members of the U.S. House are not seeking re-election in 2024, nineteen Democrats and ten Republicans. A combined fifteen members between both parties are retiring outright, while the other fourteen are seeking an alternative office.
In the Senate, seven members, five Democrats and two Republicans, are not seeking re-election, with Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) being the only member to seek alternative office.
The current thirty-six members not seeking re-election is the second-highest number of retirements in a single month, and there is still a week left in November, leaving many to believe more retirements are imminent. The hottest time of year for retirements is during the holiday breaks, when members of Congress spend time with their families away from Capitol Hill and consider their options.
But what makes the large retirement numbers so large is that both chambers of Congress rest on thinly-defined lines. Democrats only control the Senate with a one-seat majority, and that doesn’t take into account known moderates like Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Sinema was elected as a Democrat and became an Independent last year, although she still caucuses with Senate Democrats.
Speaking of Manchin, he has recently opted not to run for re-election in West Virginia, ending the likely defeat he would have faced in one of the reddest states in the nation with down ballot presidential energy. Manchin is the last elected Democrat from the Mountain State, owing to his moderate streak and long history of politics when the Democratic Party used to be more in line with the state’s working-class ideals. Manchin was re-elected in 2012 and carried every county. In 2018, a blue wave year, he severely underperformed but was narrowly re-elected over a poor Republican candidate.
Manchin would have required at least forty-points of crossover support in order to survive 2024, a feat which would have been a historical first in modern politics. His retirement not only allows Democrats to spend money elsewhere to defend their majority in a map lopsided against them, but it also allows Manchin to retire on his own terms, rather than face a near-guaranteed defeat.
Meanwhile, the House is divided on a 222-213 majority for the Republicans, the tipping-point seats of which were easily defined by New York’s isolated red wave in 2022, which saw Republicans win five marginal seats to capture the majority. One of these seats is held by none other than George Santos (R-Queens), whose name on the ballot was liability enough until he declared his intention to not run for re-election. Republicans had a decent shot at holding this Nassau-Queens seat with a good Republican, but popular former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) announced his bid to recapture the seat, which in a presidential year, is all but likely to flip blue.
Further complicating the political calculus is that a decent amount of the retirees hail from competitive districts and states, and with Congress divided on such tenuous lines held in tandem with a competitive presidential year where there’s no telling what could happen, the parties are left to organize solid ground game and field top-tier candidates to make the best of a massive question mark.
Notable members include Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), who unexpectedly underperformed her party in 2018; Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI-08), a member of a Michigan political dynasty whose once-solidly-blue working-class seat is now evenly divided; and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-07), a quasi-moderate who is betting her particular brand of politics on the Virginia governor’s mansion in 2025.
The high retirement rate appears, to some, to be indicative of fatigue from Congressional gridlock, a toxic work environment, and uncertainty of the parties’ nominees electoral prospects going into next year.
State
Report cards are in for Governor Kathy Hochul (D) and New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D). A Tuesday Marist Poll found that New Yorkers have soured on both leaders.
The poll found that among New York City voters, 37% of voters approved of Mayor Adams’ job performance, with 54% disapproving. In March 2022, Adams boasted a 61%-24% approval rating.
Part of the steep downturn in his numbers, apart from the migrant crisis, is the recent federal probe into his interactions with the Turkish government, allegeding foreign intervention in the 2021 Mayoral race.
Governor Hochul is also struggling to win voters’ favor. The Marist poll found her approval rating underwater, with 44% disapproving, and 43% approving. 39% of respondents said that Hochul is “changing the way things in Albany for the better,” while 56% said is not. Comparably, she scored a 46%-39% rating in October 2021, just two months into her tenure.
Additionally, 59% of respondents said the “overall quality of life” in New York has “gotten worse” over the past year, with 11% saying it has “gotten better.”
The results of the Marist Poll are not isolated incidents. A Siena poll released Monday found that Governor Hochul is viewed unfavorably by 43% of voters and favorably by 40%. Mayor Adams clocked in with 30% positive ratings and 46% negative ratings as he is expected to run for a second term in 2025.
Local
Regarding the legal woes of Congressman George Santos (R-Queens), Congressman Nick LaLota (R) of the First District has issued a statement after the House Ethics Committee issued a report concerning the alleged fraud Santos has committed:
“The bipartisan Ethics Committee report confirms what most New Yorkers understood months ago: George Santos is a lying fraudster who stole an election to get to Congress. My fellow New Yorkers deserve a real representative. Now, his election should be invalidated by the House using its Constitutional expulsion powers. Then, at an early-spring special election, my New York neighbors to the west will finally get an opportunity to participate in a valid election.”
