For the 2022 Midterm Elections, all districts located on cultural Long Island – that is, not geographically – are caught under an unusual set of circumstances that will likely result in all races being contentious this year.
This comes off the heels of a bitter redistricting process that saw the Democratic “Hochulmander” overturned by the New York State Supreme Court and replaced with a fairer map by a neutral expert, as well as the retirements of three political titans of Long Island politics: Lee Zeldin (R) of the easternmost First District, Tom Suozzi (D) of the North Shore-based Third, and Kathleen Rice (D) of the South Nassau-based Fourth.
Zeldin and Suozzi both retired to run for Governor, but only Zeldin cleared his primary. Rice is retired outright. That leaves freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) of the Second District as the only incumbent running for re-election.
The convenient timing of retirements, where all representatives had been incumbents for a number of years, coinciding with the redraw, gives Long Island a rare opportunity to play host to competitive seats across the board.
Zeldin’s district currently spans from the East End to central Suffolk, with the Brookhaven-Islip town line being a major delineator between the First and Second Districts. The redraw cedes most of Brookhaven to Garbarino’s district, with the new First reaching out to Nassau County. The redraw keeps the First slightly red-leaning but takes the partisan lean from R+10 to R+5, according to FiveThirtyEight. This means the First District was ten points more Republican than the nation overall. Now, it’s just five points.
The candidates in the First are Nick LaLota (R), Suffolk County Legislature chief of staff, and Bridget Fleming (D), Suffolk County Legislator. There has been no public polling of this race. While Democrats can make a play for it this year, the environment might be too much for them to overcome to take this district. In good Democratic years, it will likely be a top target.
In the Second District, Garbarino is facing a rematch from his 2020 opponent, Jackie Gordon (D). This district got slightly less Republican, going from a lean of R+8 to R+6. The only poll released for this race was a DCCC poll that shows Garbarino leading by one point. Like the First District, this might be out of reach as Democrats are playing defense, but in future good blue years, this will be a target.
The Third District is one that should have been more competitive on paper in the past decade due to partisan lean and low margins for Democratic Presidential candidates. But the local Democratic party was able to keep this in the blue column. This district got more competitive with the redraw, going from D+6 to just D+4. It takes in northern Nassau and parts of Queens.
The candidates here are Robert Zimmerman (D) and George Santos (R), who nearly upset Rep. Tom Suozzi there in 2020. A recent poll shows Zimmerman with a narrow 1-point lead, but a Santos campaign poll shows Santos up eleven points. This is set to be a competitive race and one that could very well flip this year.
In the southwest corner of the Island, taking in southern Nassau County, is the Fourth District. Of the four Long Island Congressional Districts, this one has been the least elastic. Redistricting made it slightly bluer, going from D+9 to D+10, but Republicans are targeting it, nonetheless.
Candidates here are Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito (R) and former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D). The only poll of this race is a D’Esposito campaign poll showing him leading by twelve points.
The map here creates scenarios in which Republicans could win all four Long Island seats this year but one in which Democrats could sweep all four in a year that benefits them.
All eyes are on the marquee gubernatorial race, where Zeldin is hoping to extend coattails long enough to deliver Republican victories down-ballot in these districts.
