In New York’s First and Second Congressional Districts, insurgent candidates threaten the Suffolk GOP’s preferred candidates and its institutional strength in the process. Despite the threat posed by outside candidates, what polling information is available indicates that the officially endorsed candidates retain their leads with many voters undecided.
First Congressional District
The race may confuse the casual observer with Michelle Bond’s later entrance and unfamiliar district lines.
In the three-way race between Nick LaLota, officially endorsed by the Republican and Conservative Parties, Setauket resident Anthony Figliola, and Maryland resident for 18 years Michelle Bond, hundreds of thousands of dollars have been poured into campaign literature and buying airtime.
This is entirely different from the Democratic Party, which has already consolidated behind Legislator Bridget Fleming (D-Noyac).
The campaigns that seem to be garnering the most financial and popular support, according to FEC filings, social media followership, and publicly available polling, are the LaLota and Bond campaigns, with Figliola generally coming in third.
Polls released by the Bond and LaLota campaigns each have them leading the pack. LaLota’s poll, conducted by ARW Strategies from August 1 to August 3, shows him at 22%, with Bond at 19%, and Figliola at 9%.
The poll originating from the Bond campaign places her at 25%, followed by LaLota at 14%, and Figliola at 8%, while 41% remain undecided. The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 1 and was led by American Viewpoint.
Both polls also released a secondary question showing the efficacious nature of their campaign advertisements.
One thing all three campaigns can agree on is that they have quite a bit of convincing to do, with between 41% and 51% of voters undecided and the primary election a little over a week away. With early voting starting on August 13, votes will be locked in soon, thus eliminating the potential to change the most enthused voters’ minds before Election Day.
The most frightening aspect of a Bond win, according to one anonymous GOP source, would be the Republican equivalent of Perry Gershon winning the primary. Gershon, who was able to bring his personal wealth to the race, was handicapped by his connections to Manhattan, leading to the name ‘Park Avenue Perry’ in Lee Zeldin’s campaign literature.
A “Baltimore Bond” victory, this GOP source indicated, could be a huge handicap for the party come this fall. Many from the institutional party (the campaigning backbone) would be disincentivized to vote for her, and the potential her army of campaign staffers from the Long Island Loud Majority might not fare as well in a general election – where independent voters and moderates are the targets.
With many Republican-led circles referring to her casually as a “carpetbagger” and “crypto queen,” it is hard to imagine a rally around the flag moment with a Bond victory.
As important and tightly contested as the race has been, Bond was not in attendance at the most recent debate held by the League of Women Voters of the Hamptons, Shelter Island & North Fork. She cited a “schedule conflict” – an absence that did not go unnoticed by her competition.
The Second District
Incumbent Congressman Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) is facing a challenge from a longtime outsider to the Suffolk GOP establishment, Robert Cornicelli. The latter frequently runs afoul of leadership on both sides of the county line.
Of course, Garbarino is facing more difficulty than one would suspect of the son of the Islip GOP chair. The new district geography incorporates more south shore communities outside of Garbarino’s traditional orbit, combined with a congressional voting record that many conservatives view as hostile to the second amendment and former president Donald Trump.
Cornicelli is not without his controversies, currently residing outside the district – a legal but politically hazardous decision. He was involved in a failed legislative campaign against Rob Trotta covered by The Messenger that was settled in court due to fraudulent signatures.
The primary race in Garbarino’s district is much more important, as the winner will likely win the general election in the safe Republican seat.
In the meantime, the venue attracts many customers from neighboring townships such as Smithtown and Brookhaven.
