We’ve recently unveiled our forecasts for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. At a glance, Republicans have an overwhelming chance of taking control of the Senate, via a virtual lock on flipping West Virginia and momentum on their side in Montana to oust three-term Senator Jon Tester (D). Races in Ohio, Michigan, and Nevada are pure toss ups, while Democrats only have long-shot odds of ousting Republicans in Texas and Florida. We favor Republicans to gain control of the Senate with 51 seats, current odds in mind.
In the race for the House, we rate 217 seats as at least “tilting” towards the GOP. 218 is required for a majority. Democrats are not far behind at 200 seats in their favor. 18 seats remain as toss ups in our eyes. If the national environment is close, which is highly likely in favor of either party, the GOP should be able to grab some crossover appeal in more moderate districts to retain control of the lower chamber. We will provide more updates on the Congressional races as Election Day draws near.
But since we’ve passed Labor Day – happy belated to all of our readers – that means we’re fully on the campaign trail. And with that, we’ll unveil our initial forecast for the presidential race.
Former President Donald Trump (R-FL) is the first Republican nominee in history to receive three consecutive nominations for the White House. He has swapped his 2016 and 2020 running mate in Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) for political newcomer Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), who was first elected in 2022. The Trump-Vance team faces perhaps the greatest boomerang in modern politics in the form of the midsummer ticket-switch from the Democrats. The Party of Jackson wrapped up its business in Chicago last week, setting the stage for Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) to defend the policies and platform of Joe Biden (D-DE).
Had we released an initial forecast when Biden was still on the ticket, it would have looked a lot more favorable for a large Trump win, or even a landslide. This was mostly due to Biden’s hemorrhaging in state and national polls in nearly all of the battlegrounds and some deep-blue ones as well. Harris seems to have regained control of the ship in terms of polling among demographics tantamount to a Democratic win: young voters, minority voters, and Independents. At the time, Trump was favored to sweep all or most of the battlegrounds, while Biden and company looked likely to play only defense this year.
The presidential landscape changed even more drastically with the suspension of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and his subsequent endorsement of Trump. It’s hard to tell exactly what effect that will have on the overall electorate, but if Trump stands to gain just a couple of percentage points of RFK support into his corner, it could make a massive difference in a close race.
We’ve discussed this in our Civics 101 column (page 14) before, but we’ll give a brief overview of the Electoral College. States’ congressional districts represent the population proportionately. California has the most districts – fifty-two – and six states are tied with just one district. These districts constitute the U.S. House. The Senate, on the other hand, represents states equally; each one sends two Senators to Washington, regardless of population. A state’s number of electoral votes is determined by the combination of these two numbers. New York has twenty-six congressional districts and two Senators, giving it twenty-eight electoral votes.
Safe: These states are highly unlikely to become competitive and one party has significant odds to win them.
Likely: One party has several distinct advantages, but the state has potential to become engaged or see a thinner-than-usual margin.
Leans: One party has a certain set of advantages, but the race is certainly considered competitive. Upsets are not out of the question here.
Tilts: One party has a slight enough advantage that cannot be overlooked in the analysis of the horse race. These states are certain to remain competitive until Election Day.
Toss Up: No party has a distinct advantage. These states will decide the next president.
Electoral votes for each state are denoted in parentheses.
The Toss Ups
Arizona (11): Once a Republican stronghold of the Southwest, Arizona has now become one of the most competitive states on every level. The Phoenix-metro area is one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, and it is clearly demonstrated on the urban sprawl’s influence on state politics. Democrats had only won the Copper State once since Harry Truman (D-MO) in 1948. That was in 1996 when Bill Clinton (D-AR) carried the state over Bob Dole (R-KS), while also losing Phoenix’s Maricopa County. Biden ended the streak in 2020 and now both campaigns are heavily engaged. Not that long ago, Republicans held almost every statewide office here. Now, Democrats have both U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s office, and marginal majorities in the state legislature.
Trump’s strategy in Arizona is to campaign to Latino voters, who ideologically seem more at home in the modern GOP as opposed to the modern Democratic Party, a group among whom Trump has seen some tectonic shifts in polling throughout the year. The border crisis is certainly going to hit home to many in the Copper State.
Harris’s strategy is campaigning to younger, more progressive voters. Arizona’s urban centers are full of them, especially as Tucson and Phoenix continue to grow as transitory communities, those with relatively low full-time residency.
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.5
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.2
Georgia (16): The Peach State was another shocker in 2020, as Biden became the first Democrat to carry Georgia since Clinton in 1992. Before that, Georgia had not been carried by a Democrat since native son Jimmy Carter (D-GA) in his landslide loss to Ronald Reagan (R-CA) in 1980. Georgia’s shifting political moods stem from the explosion of growth in the Atlanta-metro area and highly politically active blocs of minority voters. Georgia is also experiencing a “tale of two states,” where intensely conservative exurbs are now battling with progressive-leaning suburbs and urban areas.
Trump’s strategy here is to campaign to black voters who were soft on Biden. Trump had been registering as high as 30% black support nationwide, a historically lopsided figure that would virtually end Democrats’ presidential prospects should such statistics become perennial. Campaigning with RFK and possibly former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (I) could help bridge a valuable gap with moderates who can’t stomach Trump but don’t want four more years of Biden.
Harris’ strategy in Georgia is to march straight into Atlanta and galvanize black and suburban voters. 2020 proved that the political scales in Georgia don’t require much pressure to tip. Harris would have to reconcile every ounce of support Biden had four years ago, which might be a tall task in such a competitive state that still has an intrinsic Republican lean. If Harris were to lose any states of the Biden coalition, Georgia is our first bet.
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.2
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.4
Michigan (15): The Rust Belt giant gained a much-needed political shift in 2016, when Trump became the first Republican to win the Wolverine State since George H. W. Bush (R-TX) in 1988. His win, although razor-thin, proved that the GOP could in fact break the “blue wall” and that a populist message could still win, despite the shoe being on the other political foot. Michigan is dominated by deep-blue Detroit, unionized, blue-collar cities along Lake Huron, such as Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, and Flint, and Grand Rapids to the west. These areas proved pivotal to a Trump win in 2016 and a close margin four years later. Trump held historically large and long leads in the polls against Biden, but the race has become much more dynamic since Harris became the nominee.
Trump’s strategy is to repeat his 2016 formula of campaigning to working-class voters who feel both parties have long forgotten them. Frequent campaign stops in the aforementioned working-class cities will be his key to success, as well as promising revitalization in the Detroit-metro area. However, a key part of his 2016 success is largely out of his control: lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Had just a few thousand more Democrats gone to the polls in 2016, Michigan would have never flipped.
Harris’ strategy in Michigan plays out more like a minefield than a campaign blitz. While large unions have not yet endorsed a candidate, Harris might be experiencing a honeymoon effect in Michigan perhaps more severe than in other states. Michigan was the only Rust Belt state where Trump had aggregate leads of more than five points – a large margin for a Republican in a generationally-Democratic state. Harris might face several tough working-class crowds in defending the last four years of “Bidenomics.” Additionally, she has the growing rift between the Democratic Party and the Arab-American community, which has a significant presence in Michigan. The primary results were brutal for Biden, as more than 100,000 voters marked their ballots for “Uncommitted” delegates in a protest vote due to his stance on the Israel-Gaza War. Those groups have made it clear they’re not finished protesting the top of the ticket, which will be decisive in a state like Michigan.
RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.1
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +2.1
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District (1): Only worth one electoral vote, NE-02 is a unique demonstration of how just one electoral vote can go a long way. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that award electoral votes based on the popular vote winner in each congressional district. The popular vote-winner of the statewide vote in Nebraska gets two electoral votes. NE-01 and NE-03 are safely Republican districts, giving Trump four from the Cornhusker State. NE-02 is based solely around Omaha and its suburbs. A fairly conservative city that has trended blue in the last few elections, Omaha has been able to receive national attention, especially in close races. Obama was the first presidential nominee to cause an electoral vote split in Nebraska in 2008. Trump retained NE-02 in 2016, but lost it in 2020.
Trump’s strategy is to play into manufacturing and energy. Nebraska has large oil, natural gas, and agriculture industries, all tied together by trains. North Platte, although on the other side of the state, is home to the largest trainyard in the world.
Harris’ strategy would be to play just to Omaha’s somewhat younger, up-and-coming generation of voters. Downtown Omaha is home to forms of nightlife with slightly progressive overtones.
Regardless of strategy, if either candidate is spotted in Omaha in the closing days of the campaign, it means we’re in for a tight race, as one electoral vote not overlooked by either campaign means they’re not taking any chances in an election that could go either way.
RealClearPolitics average: Harris +8
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +6
Nevada (6): Nevada has been a white whale for Republicans for the last few cycles. After having not backed a Democrat since 1964, Nevada backed Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and has been a swing state ever since. The GOP hasn’t been able to capture the state since George W. Bush (R-TX) in 2004, with 2016 and 2020 delivering near-identical close margins. Nevada is a difficult state to prognosticate: the heavy entertainment industry makes for a much more transient population, ruby-red desert counties have difficult counterbalancing the uber-liberal ski towns near Lake Tahoe, and it’s the only regularly-competitive state where Republicans are overestimated in the polls.
Nevada only has two competitive counties: Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). The former hasn’t backed a Republican nominee since 1988 and the latter since 2004.
Trump’s strategy is campaigning largely against the COVID lockdowns and subsequent business restrictions. While we’re completely out of the pandemic at this point, the state’s entertainment industry felt passionate enough to oust Governor Steve Sisolak (D) in 2022 over the issue. Latino voters and border security will also be tantamount a Trump win here. Nevada’s status as a western state gives it a historically-Libertarian mindset, one that might allow for the de facto Trump-Kennedy fusion display to court the middle.
Harris’ strategy is campaigning to minority voters and younger voters. Both campaigns will be relegated to Las Vegas and Reno, which plays out well for Harris, as both are moderately-blue counties. Harris’ proposed tax increases on business and future capital gains might not resonate with a state built more on business than on colleges and universities. Harris will need to galvanize as much young support as possible, while also staying on message in the state’s full-time communities.
RealClearPolitics average: TIE
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.7
Pennsylvania (19): The Keystone State was another member of the Bush, Sr., coalition of 1988 that Trump was able to flip in an upset in 2016. He narrowly lost the state in 2020, but it now emerges as perhaps the best pickup opportunity of Rust Belt. Pennsylvania is a heavily-working class state, where the political geography has changed significantly over the last twenty years. Central Pennsylvania is intensely Republican, while the GOP has made inroads in blue-collar communities like the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre, a coal-mining town just south of Scranton. Pennsylvania’s statewide races are dominated by the clout of deep-blue Philadelphia, while a few swing counties throughout the state serve as landing strips for almost any campaign: Erie (northwestern PA), Centre (central PA), Dauphin (south central PA), and Bucks (eastern PA).
Trump’s strategy would entail heavy working-class messaging, especially on the steel and coal industries outside two decently-blue cities on opposing ends of the state: Scranton and Pittsburgh. Out-of-control crime in Philadelphia could also be used as a campaign platform, although more of such control would come down to the municipality. Trump will also need to hit those prime swing counties across the state to pull together a decent coalition of supporters.
Harris’ strategy would be to campaign in the urban areas and ensure turnout stays at 2020 levels. Any slip in enthusiasm means handing Trump Pennsylvania and likely the election.
RealClearPolitics average: Harris +0.5
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +1.2
Wisconsin (10): Trump’s win here in 2016 was perhaps the biggest upset of the night, as the campaign had only moderately contended the state, while Hillary Clinton did not once visit the Badger State after the convention. After a razor-thin Biden win, Wisconsin will likely remain a toss up until Election Day. Anchored by Madison and Milwaukee, Democrats start with a decent floor, but the mass exodus of blue-collar workers, namely in the state’s famous dairy industry, means a large chasm in support for Democrats. Republicans also have a geographical advantage over Democrats, in that they’re concentrated all throughout the state, while Democrats are only tightly concentrated in the two urban areas.
Trump’s strategy will consist of his Rust Belt marketing: job creation, union endorsements, and industry-friendly policies. His 2016 win of campaigning to a “forgotten” group of Middle America might still resonate, but the shine of that message might not be as prominent as Democrats in 2020 were sure not to repeat Clinton’s 2016 mistakes, and are sparing no expenses this year either.
Harris’ strategy will require her presence in the state’s urban areas and will need to ensure that moderates are courted into her campaign and every Democrat in the state gets out to vote.
RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.4
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +3.2
We’ll explore the other states in our forecast in a later column.
