As the 2024 election continues to barrel into territory previously uncharted for generations, if ever, the time is almost near for Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) to pick a running mate.
The media is already fawning over Harris, as polls already show a much more even game between her and former President Donald Trump (R-FL). While Trump seemed to be in a good position to run away with the election with Joe Biden (D-DE) on the ballot, the political calculus has almost entirely changed, at least in some parts of the country. We won’t know for sure exactly how the two will fare until the dust settles and the honeymoon effect we’re likely seeing for Harris fades.
The Democrats’ pushing Biden out of the race when they realized their egos made checks their policies couldn’t cash was neatly timed with Trump’s RNC speech, just days after an assassination attempt rocked the nation. What should have resulted in a post-convention, post-assassination attempt bump in the polls instead crumbled into a dead-heat match with the most unpopular vice president since Dick Cheney (R-WY). For reference, he was massively unpopular towards the end of George Bush’s (R-TX) second term.
Harris will also likely see a slight boost in polling after she selects a running mate. For what it’s worth, most of the Democratic nominees have pretty decent strengths. Many come from competitive states, have at least some sets of policies on which they’ve adopted moderate stances to court the middle, and are ostensibly sound enough to balance the ticket.
But can any of them really save her?
Our objective assessment of the pros and cons of each potential running mate can be found in our centerfold of pages 12 and 13. We outline what advantages each running mate could bring to the table, as well as the drawbacks of having said candidate second in line for the presidency.
We’re inclined to believe that even Harris’ best pick can’t possibly save her from a difficult election, even one in which Trump might be slightly favored. Trump still leads the RealClearPolitics polling average against Harris by two points. While not a large margin at face value, it’s remarkable the lead hasn’t been completely wrestled from him at this point, as Republicans usually never have an easy time leading national generic polling.
Add that to the fact that most polling, especially in the last few cycles, has greatly underestimated Republican performance – save for 2022 – and Harris might actually be falling behind farther than anticipated.
Trump has also retained the aggregate leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, while Harris has taken slight aggregate leads from Trump in Michigan and Virginia. Harris also has decent, yet not insurmountable, leads in Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. A poll released on the day of her ascension to the top of the ticket put her in a standing not much better than that of Biden in New York, and a poll put out just today puts the Vice President just fives points ahead of Trump in Oregon, an idiosyncratic blue state that has not backed a GOP nominee since 1984.
That said, if the honeymoon effect is on display, then the map doesn’t change dramatically from what we were already seeing.
That’s because Harris is essentially Biden 2.0, just in a younger, female body, but whose words don’t make much more sense than Biden’s. Harris’ downfall here is that she is obviously not suffering from dementia. Do with that what you will.
So, can another Democrat save her? The problem is two Democrats who might be her saving grace are not nationally known and might have little appeal outside their home states: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. The two are not likely to get the job based on those stats alone and we wouldn’t be surprised if, in the case either of them did get the nomination, Harris didn’t suffer the same problem Hillary Clinton did in 2016 by picking little-known Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA).
Harris’ most obvious choices are Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. All come from states Harris would need to win in order to secure 270, although Arizona is seen as more of the icing on the cake than the breaded foundation, and all would balance her lack of experience and bipartisanship with…experience and bipartisanship (in some cases).
Harris’ lack of likability in her home state of California posed obvious problems in her 2020 race. She could not muster more than 5% in the polls ahead of the primary, so much so that she suspended her campaign before California would have voted on Super Tuesday, likely saving her from a humiliating defeat to Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Harris also consistently ranked at the very bottom of the Senate’s bipartisan rankings, putting her California progressivism on display for the world to see…and cringe at.
If California didn’t think she was electable beyond the U.S. Senate, then what makes the Democrats think she’s electable in the eyes of centrist voters in America’s suburbs? If a San Francisco progressive wouldn’t have chosen her to be president in 2020, why wouldn’t a New Jersey union tradesman feel similarly?
This is where we believe a running mate can’t possibly save her candidacy, regardless of who she picks. This doesn’t mean the election is Trump’s to lose, and RFK Jr. is certainly still a factor, but what it does mean is that Harris cannot separate herself from the administration in which she was entirely complicit, even after calling Biden a virulent racist during the 2020 debates and subsequently agreeing to be the racist’s running mate.
Think of this election as New York’s last gubernatorial race: a mostly-revered executive who was well past his prime, pushed out by his own people, and succeeded by a number-two he kept mostly in the dark and now can’t throw elbows when necessary.
Vice President Harris, meet Governor Hochul.
New York, meet the United States.
Everyone, meet the most unprecedented election of your lifetimes.
