National
The primary contest continues to crawl along as both nominees obtained their respective delegate thresholds to become their parties’ presumptive nominees in mid-March.
This past weekend held two sleepy contests for the Republican nomination, as former President Donald Trump (R-FL) won delegates from Wyoming and Puerto Rico.
The Wyoming State Convention ended on Saturday, which concluded a multi-step voting process for Republicans. Trump captured all twenty-nine delegates available.
In Puerto Rico, the Sunday convention was limited to delegates previously elected from their municipalities and precincts. These delegates were able to participate in a presidential preference vote. Trump secured all twenty-three delegates.
The marquee primary race this week came out of Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state in the November election. Trump became the first Republican to carry the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush (R-TX) in 1988, but narrowly lost it in 2020.
With more than 95% of precincts reporting as of early Wednesday morning, Trump carried Pennsylvania with 83.5% of the vote, to former South Carolina Governor and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s (R-SC) 16.5%. Haley was the sole challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination after the other candidates dropped out. She suspended her campaign on March 6 after only carrying Vermont and the District of Columbia.
Trump’s lowest margin of victory on the county level came in Chester County – 76% – just outside of Philadelphia. He carried all sixty-seven counties and won sixteen delegates. The other fifty-one are determined by congressional district winners and have not yet been allocated.
President Joe Biden (D-DE) carried Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary with 93.1% of the vote, to now-suspended Congressman Dean Phillips’ (D, MN-03) 6.9%. Biden carried all counties; his lowest margin was in Greene County – 80% – in the southwestern corner of the state. Biden also won all 153 delegates available.
Trump has amassed 1,963 delegates and has won forty-seven contests so far. Biden has collected 3,231 delegates and has won forty-two contests.
The contest now goes back to Puerto Rico for the Democratic primary on April 28, followed by the Indiana Primary for both parties on May 7.
In other national election news, another relatively member of Congress is calling it quits at the end of this term. Congressman Jake LaTurner (R, KS-02) announced last week that he will not seek re-election.
LaTurner was elected in 2020, defeating then-Congressman Steve Watkins (R) in the GOP primary by fifteen points. Watkins had won a razor-thin contest for Kansas’ Second District in 2018. He was then accused of voter fraud and election perjury for listing his personal address as a UPS Store. Watkins entered a diversion program and all charges have been dropped.
In 2017, LaTurner was appointed Treasurer of Kansas by then-Governor Sam Brownback (R), making him the youngest statewide official in the country at just thirty-one years old. He was elected in his own right in 2018 before being elected to Congress in 2020 by a fifteen-point margin. The Second District got slightly redder in 2022, but LaTurner won by an identical margin in 2022.
Kansas is ruby-red on the federal and most statewide levels, but has more Democratic idiosyncrasies down ballot. KS-02 includes the capital of Topeka, as well as Emporia, Junction City, and Leavenworth. The district last elected a Democrat in 2006 but Republicans won it back in 2008. On the federal level, KS-02 has been a high-floor-low-ceiling district for Democrats, as they have captured at least 40% of the vote in all but two presidential elections since 2000. Trump won KS-02 56%-41% over Biden.
Kansas has not backed a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964, although Trump’s 14.6-point margin is relatively thinner than those of previous elections. Besides Kansas City, the only oases of Democratic support currently lie in younger college towns. Some speculate that Kansas could turn more competitive in the coming decades, especially in strong Democratic years. With Trump on the ballot this year, it seems unlikely that KS-02 will be contentious, but it has the possibility of becoming competitively engaged.
LaTurner’s departure from Congress at such a young age leaves questions about his political future, as he stated in his letter to constituents on April 18 that he will not be a candidate in 2024 or for the state elections in 2026.
State
Siena College has released their latest rounds of polling on the presidential race in New York, as well as job approval and favorability ratings for Governor Kathy Hochul (D).
The College found that both ratings for the Governor are at historic lows. Her favorability rating was clocked at 40%, with 49% viewing her negatively.
The poll also found that Hochul’s job approval rating is also underwater, with 45% of New Yorkers giving her positive marks and 49% disapproving of her governance.
Governor Hochul has never seen more than 50% of New Yorkers approve of her job performance and the latest Siena College poll’s numbers show the first time in her tenure that more voters have disapproved of her job performance.
Job approval ratings are generally higher than individual popularity opinions.
Siena College has been tracking her favorability and job approval ratings since she assumed the governorship in 2021.
While most Democrats approve of Hochul and most Republicans disapprove, what’s more staggering is that Independents have soured on the Governor by a two-to-one margin.
Siena also found that President Biden is also faring poorly with New York voters, clocking in at just a 40% approval rating in a state he carried by about twenty-three points in 2020. The College also found that Biden has just a ten-point lead over Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup for the 2024 race. Polls have consistently shown high-single-digit and low-double-digit leads for Biden in an otherwise solidly blue state. Trump has also voiced his interest in contesting New York in the general election.
New York was last seriously in play in 1988 and no Republican has eclipsed 40% of the vote statewide since George W. Bush (R-TX) in 2004.
However, Siena also found that 54% of registered voters in New York believe the ongoing trial against former President Trump is legitimate. The trial pertains to charges that Trump paid “hush money” to an adult film star. Just 30% of voters said that the trial pertaining to Trump falsifying records to cover up an affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels is a “witch hunt.”
55% of Long Island voters view the trial as legitimate, while 33% say it’s not.
Siena College also polled New Yorkers on certain hot-button issues, one of which concerns transgender student athletes participating in sports. 66% of New Yorkers said they support requiring said athletes to compete in sports programs under the gender with which they were born. Just 27% oppose the idea. Interestingly, 52% of Democrats support the restriction, with 27% who oppose it. Among Independents 77% support the restriction, with 16% opposing it.
The poll was conducted with 806 registered voters from April 15 through April 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) voted in favor of legislation aimed at replenishing American resources and supporting allies against U.S. adversaries.
Four bills passed the House, three in a bipartisan manner: H.R.6126, the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act; H.R.8036, the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act; H.R.8038, the 21st Century Peace Through Strength Act; and H.R.8035, the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act.
“The bills we passed will help replenish American stockpiles, counter China’s aggression, defeat Putin’s Russia, and support our ally Israel. As a Navy Veteran, I will always prefer sending bombs and bullets to our allies to defeat a common adversary if it means not having to put American soldiers in harm’s way,” said LaLota. “While it is incredibly important to address our nation’s staggering and growing debt, we must also preserve America’s national security. Evil must be dealt with head-on. I extend my sincere gratitude to Speaker Johnson for his unwavering dedication to advancing these critical measures and the bipartisan support underscores the importance of unity to address these challenges. Now, President Biden must show decisive leadership, support Israel, demand NATO meets the moment, and ensure our nation’s security. I will continue to work with my colleagues to put results over rhetoric and keep Americans safe at home and abroad.”
The Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act passed the House in a 226-196 vote, with only two Republicans voting against it and only twelve Democrats supporting it. Nearly all Democrats who voted in favor of it face competitive races this November.
The Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropria-tions Act passed in a 385-34 voting, with twelve abstentions. All thirty-four votes against were cast by Republicans.
The 21st Century Peace Through Strength Act passed in a 360-58 vote.
The Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act passed in a 311-112 vote, with eight abstentions.
All votes opposed were cast by Republicans.
