There’s a very palpable cynicism in American politics that votes, depending on location, state, and/or partisan lean, do matter and will ultimately not affect the result. A lot of the cynicism, we find, is directed at our hybrid form of government and the unique Electoral College, but the reality is that someone, somewhere, will feel slighted and misrepresented no matter the way in which elections are handled.
But if any election should be a counter to the argument, 2024 is perhaps the best example.
We’re vocal proponents of the public getting to know their local elected officials, as these are the public servants who have the most power to make the most changes in your immediate community and life. What’s, for the most part, a big plus is that these people live in your neighborhoods as well, which only makes for a reason to connect with them.
New York has also had problem after problem once Democrats consolidated a trifecta in Albany after the 2018 midterms. One of our final editorial messages before the historic 2024 elections was “Make New York Purple Again,” in hopes that legislative Republicans could crack the supermajorities in both chambers. Such a feat occurred in the Senate, where Stephen Chen (R-Bensonhurst) has ousted one-term Senator Iwen Chu (D-Brooklyn). One race remains too close to call, but regardless of what happens there, Democrats have fallen at least one seat short of the supermajority.
We see this as a huge win, not only for our state, but for the countless voters who have felt unredeemed by their political participation in however many cycles they consider to have been an exhibition match. The cracking of the supermajority means another step towards checks and balances in Albany. This could have an impact on runaway legislation that has led New York to become the biggest exporter of residents in the country.
But legislative gains were not limited to New York. Republicans have also cracked both legislative supermajorities in Vermont, the bluest state in the Union. Republicans have also clawed back state chambers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Minnesota seems like a wild card at the moment based on close races. These residents can now have more balance in their government, namely the swing states, but also stop the onslaught of one-party rule in others.
Even more so, we cannot understate New York’s shift to the right this election. For all the millions of voters who for years have believed that their vote never mattered because New York was always so unrelentingly blue, we’ll point out two reasons why those voters are wrong in their assessment.
For one thing, the shift cost Kamala Harris (D-CA) the popular vote, a feat that was deemed nearly impossible by forecasters, even if Trump won in the College. The shift in New York also led to down-ballot energy that cracked the supermajorities.
The second reason: because of the significantly higher floor the GOP has in New York, should it remain by 2028, New Yorkers are going to find themselves in a hotly-contested battleground state in the next presidential race. Long Island received rare appearances from presidential campaigns from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Donald Trump this year. The voters of our state will be spoken to more directly by the candidates, making for the environment where most voters might start to believe their vote is “worth something.”
So, where did this swing come from?
We’re comfortable in saying that the momentum began right here in Suffolk County.
If we go back just a few years ago, Democrats held a sizable majority in the Legislature, had locks on the County Executive and District Attorney seats, and effectively controlled government up and down, at least at the County level for the better part of twenty years.
At face value, Suffolk seemed like a deep-blue county, but the idiosyncrasies of politics is perhaps most observable at the local level. This, we believe, led to a form of Democratic complacency, coupled with the overplayed hand that Trump was essentially unelectable and their assumption that the GOP had ostracized themselves from the mind of the astute voter after the 2022 midterms.
When Jesse Garcia (R-Ridge) became Chairman of the Suffolk GOP in 2019, it only took two cycles for the shift to emerge. A red wave in 2021 took the Legislature and the D.A.’s office. In 2022, Long Island, along with New York, were key to a razor-thin GOP House Majority. And in 2023, Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) became the first elected Republican County Executive since 1999, with the GOP forming a supermajority in the Legislature for the first time in almost thirty years.
But it goes deeper than just wins and losses. Democrats are now forced to defend once-deep-blue turf in Three Village and the Town of Babylon. A true political movement starts at the grassroots level, and Suffolk, under the leadership of Chairman Garcia, have transformed Suffolk, not only into a Republican-run County, but one that will certainly be the “tip of the spear,” in the Chairman’s own words, in turning New York red in four years.
The 2022 House Majority for the GOP should tell voters of all ideologies that single votes can absolutely matter, since a branch of government was divided because of close races here.
But on top of New York now shaping up to be a more competitive environment, thanks mostly to Garcia and Suffolk County, the local 2024 elections prove why a single vote can matter.
In the Eleventh Assembly District, Assemblywoman Kimberly Jean-Pierre (D-Wheatley Heights) decided to retire. The open-seat contest was immediately viewed to be competitive, as Jean-Pierre only won by the narrowest of margins in 2022. While she lost the Suffolk side of the district, she was buoyed by just a handful of electoral districts in East Massapequa.
This is a district where Republicans were lucky to eclipse 40% of the vote just a few years ago.
While the race has not yet been called, Kwani O’Pharrow (D-West Babylon) leads former NYPD officer Joe Cardinale (R-Amityville) by just a single vote in the Suffolk portion of the district. O’Pharrow has a lead of about two hundred votes in the Nassau portion of the district, but a one-vote lead is almost unheard in larger circles, but such margins are more common on the lower levels.
Every vote does matter, even if the results are not’ immediately apparent. For all the average cynic might know, the vote that he or she just casted in their deep blue/red state could be a complete sea change in just a few years.
And for all any of us know, we could easily see a local elected official take office by just a single vote.
Yes, every vote does matter.
