Cover photo: Trump speaking to supporters in Reno on Friday, October 11 (Credit – Ashley Chindamo)
An aspect of the presidential landscape rarely afforded to New Yorkers is regularly provided to Nevada, one of the several premier swing states of the last several elections.
The Messenger had the opportunity to speak with voters in Reno, the state’s third-largest city, a crucial pinpoint for any statewide campaign, and the site of a weekend rally by former President Donald Trump (R-FL).
Nevada has not backed a Republican presidential nominee since 2004. Democrats only recently consolidated control of the state legislature, but voters ousted one-term Governor Steve Sisolak (D) in 2022 for Clark County (Las Vegas) Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R). Lombardo’s role in the governor’s mansion broke the trifecta Democrats had held in the Silver State since 2019. Nevadans also ousted one-term Senator Dean Heller (R) in the 2018 midterms, opting for then-Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D), who is currently running for her second term against war hero Sam Brown (R).
Despite Nevada’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates, the state has seen razor-thin margins in the last two elections. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) won Nevada by just over two points – a margin of about 27,000 votes out of over one million cast – and Joe Biden (D-DE) carried the Silver State by a slightly slimmer margin in 2020. Nevada was one of just six states, along with the District of Columbia, to give Trump a better margin than his 2016 showing.
Nevada’s politics comes down to two counties: Clark (Las Vegas and its suburbs) and Washoe (Reno). While Republicans have been able to win the state without Clark, Washoe is seen as a must-win county for any campaign. Washoe, along with Nevada, was once reliably Republican, having backed every GOP nominee from 1944 to 2004, with the exception of 1964. Since then, however, it has backed Democrats in every election, with the 2012, 2016, and 2020 margins being especially thin.
With a total population of about 500,000, Washoe County has a median household income of $84,183, an education rate of 35% (Bachelor’s or higher), and an employment rate of 62.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 25% of the Washoe population is Hispanic or Latino of any race.
A Trump win in Nevada consists of significantly courting the Latino population and taking a decent share of the suburban, educated electorate. Capitalizing on the state’s slow response and recovery period from the COVID-19 Pandemic will also likely help him with the state’s vibrant tourism and entertainment industries, a facet of the 2022 gubernatorial campaign that escorted Sisolak out of office.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ (D-CA) strategy would simply be to hold the bottom line and ensure turnout does not dip below what it was in 2016. A narrow win in Washoe for Trump, along with decent turnout in Las Vegas and/or the rural areas, would likely mean he would clinch the state’s six electoral votes.
For either campaign, speaking on a message of community values can be challenging in some parts of the state, as Nevada has a relatively high transient population, making campaigning on local issues difficult in certain areas.
We spoke to some residents in Reno to get a bigger picture of where the state might be headed, as well as to afford to our readers a boots-on-the-ground picture of one of the nation’s most hotly contested battlegrounds.
“The old Democrats who used to care about the United States have switched over to this socialist agenda,” Val Wagner, a forty-nine-year Reno resident told The Messenger as she was waiting in line for the Friday Trump rally.
Wagner said she was a registered Democrat who backed Al Gore (D-TN) in the 2000 election, but switched her registration with the presentation of John Kerry (D-MA) as the 2004 nominee.
“John Kerry scared me,” said Wagner, as one of the two reasons she switched her registration. “The other is I stopped watching our local news because they wouldn’t give both sides of any story. That’s when I decided I needed to vote down the ballot for Republicans.”
Wagner said she was “excited” about Trump’s 2016 candidacy.
“Finally, we have a businessman who’s going to run the largest business of our country, which is our country itself,” said Wagner. “I don’t think the politicians should be there [Washington]; it needs to be businessmen like Trump.”
Wagner added that getting her finger on the pulse of the electorate is complicated, as she believes people are afraid of putting out lawn signs supporting the former president.
“After 2020, people got really scared of repercussions if they supported him. I think more people support him, but they’re not willing to say anything,” said Wagner, who referenced verbal abuse and/or berating that she has personally experienced from Democratic family members.
Wagner also believes Trump has a “realistic shot” at both Washoe and Clark counties and adds that she thinks the Silver State will flip red in November. She stated the “defining issue” of this election as national security.
“I fear that we’re going to be taken over by anyone and everyone who is our enemy. If we don’t do something about our national security, we’re going to lose our country,” said Wagner, fearing a gradual “internal social takeover.”
Wagner offered a final interesting point: Even if Trump wins, she believes the U.S. is headed for a large-scale internal conflict.
“But I think he [Trump] has a better chance of stopping it,” said Wagner.
The Messenger also spoke with John Parrish, a State Republican Committeeman from Carson City.
“We’re not nervous so much as we are concerned,” said Parrish. “We’ve got the lead, but it’s a critical election. Harris and Walz are extremely liberal and Harris wasn’t really vetted [as a candidate]. We have the most liberal Senator and Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), who is extremely liberal. They could change the fabric of our nation if they get in. We really want to win and win fairly.”
Parrish also spoke of Trump’s chances in Nevada, as it’s one of the only states in which Democratic support is regularly underestimated in pre-election polling, as of the last several cycles.
“If all the Republicans in Nevada’s rural counties voted, they could sweep the state and beat Clark [County],” said Parrish. “The numbers are with us.”
Parrish added that he personally thinks Trump has an 80% chance of winning Nevada, but remains optimistic that Trump has the advantage nonetheless.
“I’m encouraged,” said Parrish, based on what he has seen as a state GOP committeeman.
Just over the border in Truckee, California, The Messenger spoke with a Harris supporter, who also lives in Reno.
“Mr. Trump pretty much has Nevada locked up,” said Merritt Weisinger, a four-year resident of Sparks. Despite being a Democrat, he thinks Trump will “absolutely” carry the state. Weisinger thinks that the “big” race is the one between Senator Rosen and Sam Brown, which he believes will go to Rosen.
Weisinger likens Trump’s support across rural Nevada to campaigning on issues that affect the inner-cities, such as homelessness and migrants, two key issues that he argues the rural Nevadans are “not used to.” He also posited that “most of the people” in Las Vegas are likely from California.
“The fact is that these problems don’t go away just because you live in a rural area,” said Weisinger.
He also says that Trump’s “big lie” about the 2020 election allegedly being stolen is giving him enough lift to get his Nevada campaign off the ground.
“If the lie is big enough, people believe it,” said Weisinger.
Weisinger has been a registered Democrat for over ten years, after having previously been a registered Republican who voted for Ronald Reagan (R-CA). He is a former resident of the San Francisco Bay Area who retired four years ago after a fifty-year career practicing law. He concedes that the homelessness issue in San Francisco is “intolerable” and retired to Sparks due to familiarity with the area and friends in town.
With the election just weeks away, states like Nevada will continue to be a lightning rod for both campaigns as they make their final pitches to the American electorate.
