National, State and Local Temperature Checks

Cover photo: A protestor burns an American flag outside the DNC in Chicago (Credit – X, @kevin_smith45)

National

The Democratic National Convention finished business in Chicago on Thursday night, with closing speeches by Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN).

The convention featured notable speakers, such as former President Barack Obama (D-IL), former First Lady Michelle Obama, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and a host of other prominent Democratic figures.

The convention was also not as contentious as some might have assumed, with Harris easily sweeping the delegates on the first round of voting, avoiding a second ballot round for the first time since 1968 and keeping the superdelegates, a facet exclusive to Democratic presidential politics, on the bench.

Perhaps the most jarring comment from the convention was that of Michelle Obama’s insinuation that the presidency is a ‘black job.” The former First Lady discussed racism her family experienced when her husband was in office.

“For years, Donald Trump (R-FL) did everything in his power to try to make people fear us,” she said. “His limited narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hard-working, highly educated, successful people – who happen to be Black. Wait, I want to know – who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?”

The comment is tied to Trump’s strategy of campaigning among black voters, primarily as it relates to economic hardship faced by some black Americans in more economically destitute parts of the country. Her comments are also seen by some to be indirectly targeted at Trump’s criticism of Kamala Harris’ assertion that she is black, rather than Indian. Trump made the comment at a town hall-style event with black journalists in Chicago, stating Harris only “happened to turn black” a few years ago to better leverage the party’s standing with the demographic among whom Democrats hemorrhaged in polling before Joe Biden (D-DE) suspended his campaign.

Outside the convention, pro-Hamas protesters have taken to the streets to make their points on the Israel-Gaza conflict apparent. Biden, in his speech at the DNC, conceded that the protesters “have a point” when they say there have been too many civilian deaths. Protesters also took to burning American flags, while Chicago businesses bolstered windows with plywood ahead of the convention.

The 2024 election and the 2024 DNC also draw numerous parallels to those of 1968. Both incumbents presidents suspended their campaigns, both conventions were open, neither nominee had campaigned in the primaries and did not receive any popular votes, both conventions were held in Chicago, both took place during periods of domestic division and polarizing international conflicts, both Republican candidates had received more than one nomination at the time of the convention, both elections have featured a member of the Kennedy political scion, and both elections have featured a notable third-party candidate with broad national appeal.

The Trump-Biden ticket was set to be the first presidential rematch since 1956.

With the ticket set, the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance election avoids a rematch, but sets up an election viewed as highly significant with an extraordinarily short runway.

Harris currently has narrow-to-decent leads in national and state polling aggregates but most averages still fall within the margins of error.
Trump is set to hold a rally in Glendale, Arizona, on Friday, while Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) will appear in Valdosta, Georgia.

Harris appeared in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, just north of Chicago for a campaign event coinciding with the convention.

Tuesday night also played host to some mostly inconsequential state and congressional primaries.

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) won a tight Senate race to oust then-Senator Bill Nelson (D) in 2018. The win was somewhat surprising and is often described as the beginning of Florida’s rightward shift. Scott fended off two primary challengers to sweep every county. He faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) who represented FL-26, encompassing Monroe County, parts of Miami-Dade County, and the Florida Keys. Mucarsel-Powell flipped the seat in 2018 but was ousted after just one term in 2020.

Scott starts as a favorite in the race, but faces relative unpopularity in Florida.

Incumbent House Republicans also secured renominations in Florida, with the most contentious race shaping up to be FL-13, a district that includes most of Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) and parts of the Tampa Bay area.

FL-23 includes Boca Raton, Coral Springs, and most of Fort Lauderdale. Jared Moskowitz (D) won the open seat by a thin five-point margin in 2022. He might be somewhat safer this time, but he, as of now, appears to be the most endangered Florida Democrat. He faces Joe Kaufman (R), a national security professional who defeated five other Republicans in Tuesday’s primary.

Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) easily won the primary in Wyoming and now faces Scott Morrow (D) in November. He should have no problem winning a third-term in the most Republican state in the Union.

Perhaps the most important result from Tuesday came from Alaska, where the relatively new top-four primary system allowed Mary Peltola (D) to become the first elected Democrat from Alaska’s at-large congressional district in over fifty years in 2022. The top-four primary system allows all candidates, regardless of party, to run on the same ballot. The top four vote-receivers advance to the general election. If no candidate receives a majority, the lowest performer is eliminated and his/her votes are redistributed based on the voters’ second choices. The process continues until a candidate takes a majority.

Former Governor Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich III (R), a member of the Alaska political dynasty, split the votes in the 2022 special and general elections, allowing Peltola to win. This time, Begich ran alongside Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R).

Tuesday’s primary saw Peltola lead with 50% of the vote. Begich assumed 27%, and Dalhstrom took 20%. The fourth-place finisher is still undetermined, but the nine other candidates finished miles behind the top three names.

Peltola starts out as a slight favorite, but the race is certainly likely to become engaged.

State

Governor Kathy Hochul (D) has announced that by the end of the year, she will unveil a replacement plan for her still-shelved congestion pricing plan.

The plan has been discussed since Andrew Cuomo (D) was governor and was widely panned by Long Island residents and officials. Just weeks before its start in June, Hochul suspended the plan indefinitely, much to the shock and chagrin of transportation advocates and environmental leaders.

The plan was slated to charge drivers $15 for driving into Manhattan south of 60th Street, with higher, tiered pricing plans for commercial vehicles.

The Governor told Politico at the DNC in Chicago that she plans to announce the new plan by the end of the year since it requires the State Legislature to act on it once the new session begins in 2025.

However, Hochul conceded that she believes $15 is too high a fee for most New Yorkers to afford. She also said that the move to suspend the plan was not related to elections, and that she and her team are studying other options.

New York State Republican Committee Chairman Ed Cox said that it’s still an “election-year gimmick” and that Hochul was “too weak to keep up the act in the face of fierce opposition from radicals in her own party.”

The Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) claims that the delay of the plan puts a $16.5 billion hole in its capital budget and shelves accessibility and renovation projects for the city’s mass transit system.

Local

The Long Island congressional delegation has called on President Biden to address the ongoing deli meat listeria outbreak. So far, fifteen cases of the infection have been reported across New York State, including four on Long Island and six in New York City. The numbers reach into the dozens on a national scale and the outbreak has already claimed three fatalities.

Listeriosis is a bacterial infection caused by eating foods contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. There are about 1,600 cases and 260 deaths estimated each year, with the bacteria likelier to sicken pregnant women, newborns, senior citizens, and immunocompromised individuals. The bacteria is found in soil, water, vegetation, and animal feces.

The letter to Biden, penned by Congressmen Nick LaLota (R, NY-01), Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), and Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) says that a Boar’s Head Provisions Company established in Jarratt, Virginia, recalled all of its liverwurst products that were suspected to have been infected.

The letter lists three questions the Congressmen believe must be answered by Biden to adequately shape their response to the outbreak.
The first question reads: “Reports indicate that FSIS is working with the CDC and state public health partners to investigate the multistate outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infections. The New York State Department of Health reports 14 cases, including two in Suffolk County and one in Nassau County. What steps has FSIS taken to deploy inspectors and investigators to hotspots like Suffolk County and Nassau County?”

The second question reads: Studies demonstrate that deli products sliced in retail shops often have a higher level of bacterial contamination than products prepared in deli meat factories. Approximately 83% of listeriosis cases caused by deli meats were associated with products sliced at retail. What steps has FSIS taken to update its Retail Listeria Monocytogenes Guidelines and work with public health partners and industry groups to improve its outreach since the current outbreak?”

The third question reads: “As noted above, the CDC says that the true number of sick people is likely higher and that some people may not receive medical care. What steps has the CDC taken to increase public awareness of the signs and symptoms of listeria during the current outbreak?”

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