The United States’ electoral system is a reflection of its brand of federalism and a distinct balance of power. Not without its controversies, the Electoral College stands as one of the most unique forms of election systems in the world.
Composition – 538
The Electoral College is a direct reflection of the United States’ particular brand of federalism, the dichotomy and division of powers between the federal and state governments. As pursuant to compromises between the Founding Fathers, the federal government of the country is composed of a bicameral (two house) legislature: the House and Senate. The House represents states proportionally while the Senate represents them equally.
The House is composed of 435 Congressional Districts across all fifty states, with the highest number being allocated to California (52), and the smallest number (1) being allocated to the states with the lowest populations. Right now, six states have just one Congressional District, otherwise known as an at-large district. Districts are redrawn every ten years pursuant to the results of the Census. Some states might gain or lose Congressional Districts, and thereby, electoral votes each decade. New York, California, and West Virginia were some of the losers after 2020, while Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina each gained one vote. Texas gained two.
With 435 districts, the House ensures states are represented proportionally.
The distinction in the Senate was set forth by Roger Sherman’s Connecticut Compromise, which ensured equal representation in the upper chamber across all fifty states. Each state receives two Senators, each elected to staggered six-year terms. Special elections can result in off-year Senate elections, or even “double-barrel” Senate races, when both seats from one state are on the ballot simultaneously. This will occur in Nebraska in the 2024 elections. Every double-barrel Senate election since 1966 has produced victories for one party in both seats. 1966 saw a split outcome in South Carolina.
With 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus three non-voting members from the District of Columbia, the Electoral College is then composed of 538 electoral votes. A state’s electoral vote number can easily be calculated by taking the number of Congressional Districts and adding two to that number. New York has twenty-six Congressional Districts. With two Senators, New York has twenty-eight Electoral College votes. Each state’s proportional power is wielded in the presidential elections, while equal power gives the smaller states footing in their respective corners. The College reached its full power of 538 electors in 1964, when Washington, D.C., received three electoral votes.
Winning an Election – A Game of Counties
In order to win a presidential election, a candidate must receive at least 270 electoral votes, which is half of all available Electoral College votes plus one. States have long been classified as “red states” or “blue states,” indicating their regular preferences for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. The famed “Blue Wall” states were formed in 1992, when Bill Clinton (D-AR) won a slew of states that typically voted with the GOP for the latter half of the 1900s. Many “Blue Wall” states are still reliably in the Democratic column today, although three of those states tumbled in 2016 with Donald Trump’s (R-NY) wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Red states consist of those in the South, known as the Bible Belt, the industrial and agricultural Midwest, and the more intrinsically libertarian Mountain West.
However, writing off states as merely “red” or “blue” undersells the true elasticity of presidential politics and just how flexible the College can be in a path to victory. Much of this is owed to the states’ individual histories, explored in our column America the Beautiful: How History Shapes Our Electorate, which can be read on our website.
In short, New York Republicans are not like Iowa Republicans, and Idaho Democrats are not like Rhode Island Democrats. Thus, elections can come down to a game of counties, wherein candidates seek their expected base in certain enclaves of states to turn an impenetrable wall into an upset victory or even usher in a new political era. Such examples show trends and results in recent years that may surprise the political layman. For example, in 2016, Delaware backed Hillary Clinton (D-NY) by just 11.5%, a sharp downturn from its 18.5% and 25.0% margins for Barack Obama (D-IL) in 2012 and 2008, respectively.
When a candidate reaches 270 votes, or more, they are declared the winner of the election and the transition period between administrations begins. The Electoral College votes are certified by the states in December and by Congress in January, formalizing the presidential victory.
However, some anomalies can occur. Faithless electors occur when electors from the states chose not to back the candidate selected by the voters of the state. Many states have laws against faithless electors, which impose penalties for breaking from the state’s popular vote, or by replacing the elector with one who will honor the result. The 2016 election produced seven faithless electors, two from Texas who defected from Trump, and three from Washington and one from Hawaii who defected from Clinton.
Faithless electors argue their right to break from the state’s post electoral result under Alexander Hamilton’s original purpose for the Electoral College, which was more of an emergency feature in the event the people elected someone deemed “unfit” to be president. The College has never served in this capacity.
Split Electoral Votes
Two states split their electoral votes: Maine and Nebraska. The other forty-eight states, plus D.C., award their votes in a winner-take-all system. Maine and Nebraska award votes based on winners in the state’s Congressional Districts. Both states award two votes each based on the winner of the statewide popular vote. Maine then awards two votes based on the popular vote-winners in its two Congressional Districts, one for each, and Nebraska acts identically, only it has three Congressional Districts, and thus, three electoral votes to award.
Nebraska began its Congressional District method in 1992, and Maine began its method in 1972. Since then, only three elections have produced split outcomes: 2008, Obama won Nebraska’s Second District; 2016, Trump won Maine’s Second District; and 2020, Biden won NE-02 and Trump won ME-02. 2020 is the only election to date in which both states have split their votes simultaneously.
Nebraska is solidly Republican at every level, while NE-02 contains Omaha, a more moderately-conservative city with liberal tendencies.
Maine is a blue-leaning state that is becoming more competitive, but ME-02 contains the more classically-Republican rural northern part of the state, home to a vibrant logging industry.
Although small prizes, just one electoral vote can make a massive difference in a tight election.
What Happens in a Tie?
If neither candidate receives 270, either by a 269-269 tie or if a third-party candidate takes electoral votes (which has not happened since 1968), the election is then thrown to the House of Representatives. This has not happened since 1824, when John Quincy Adams was elected over Andrew Jackson. A House-decided election has only occurred one other time: 1800.
Bellwethers and Voting Streaks
Bellwethers account for an outsized portion of presidential campaigning. In American politics, a bellwether is a state that is often seen as a barometer for political moods across the country, and pre-election polling or early returns can often be used as a gauge for what might happen elsewhere. Famous bellwethers included Missouri and Ohio, who backed winners throughout the Twentieth Century, with only a couple exceptions, until the GOP formed a solid base in both states recently. Biden is the first president to win the election without carrying Ohio since John F. Kennedy (D-MA) in 1960. From 1904 to 2004, Missouri backed every general election winner, except in 1956. In 2008, it was the closest state that year, backing John McCain (R-AZ) over Obama. Republican margins have grown exponentially since then.
Emerging bellwethers appear to be Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida.
Winning streaks for both parties are also important, as it helps ascertain a base of support going into each election. Since 1964, Democrats have won D.C. in every election in which it has participated. Since 1968, the GOP has won Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska (at-large), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Democrats have their longest winning state streak in Minnesota, backing every Democrat since 1976. New York has backed every Democrat since 1988.
The deviation of states backing other parties has dwindled significantly since 2000, but 2016 and 2020 saw generational victories in several states that have expanded the map.
Controversies
Many criticize the College for being “outdated” and reflective more of land than of population, citing that the winner of the national popular vote should win the election outright. The point of the College goes hand in hand with federalism. Without distinct checks and balances, popular-vote rich states would receive outsized attention. In the current age of hyperpartisanship and the near-extinction of split-ticket voting, such scenarios would be all but ensured. Additionally, the smaller states and the “game of counties” would be forgotten in a popular vote-winner method. Florida’s razor-thin margin in 2000 is often a massive point of criticism. However, New Hampshire, worth just four electoral votes, backed George Bush (R-TX) that year. If the Granite State had backed Al Gore (D-TN), Gore would have won the election, regardless of the outcome in Florida. A system without the College negates the importance of states like New Hampshire.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an ongoing initiative that seeks to enlist half of the country’s electoral votes in an alliance to ensure the popular vote-winner is elected president. If states making up half of the country’s electoral votes join the compact, their electoral votes would then be bound to the popular vote winner, rather than the winner of each state respectively.
Maryland was the first state to join the compact in 2007 and Maine was the most recent in April 2024. So far, seventeen states, plus D.C., have joined the compact, collectively representing 209 electoral votes. Initiatives are pending in nine states, making up eighty-seven electoral votes.
Only five elections have seen the winners of the popular vote lose the elections: 1824 (John Q. Adams), 1876 (Hayes), 1888 (Benjamin Harrison), 2000 (Bush), and 2016 (Trump).
Highs and Lows
1880 – James Garfield (R-OH) won by just 1,898 votes (0.11% margin) out of nearly nine million ballots cast. This is the closest election by popular vote to date.
1960 – Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon (R-CA) by a 0.17% margin, with 303 in the College. However, Nixon won more states (26).
1964 – Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) wins the election with 61.1% popular and 486 electoral votes, the largest popular vote margin in history.
1936, 1972, 1984 – The only three elections in which a candidate received more than 500 electoral votes. FDR (D-NY) is the only Democrat to accomplish this. Nixon and Regan won in 1972 and 1984, respectively.
Vermont has voted Republican more times than any other state, thirty-three times.
Georgia has voted Democratic more times than any other state, thirty-four times.