National
The presidential nominating contests continues without much fanfare as President Joe Biden (D-DE) wrapped up the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary on April 28.
With just under 2,500 ballots cast territory-wide, Biden took 91.3% of the vote. The now-suspended candidates Marianne Williamson (D-CA) and Congressman Dean Phillips (D, MN-03) placed second and third, respectively.
In Puerto Rico, candidates must hit a 15% vote threshold in order to obtain delegates. As such, Biden won all fifty-five pledged delegates.
Former President Donald Trump (R-FL) won all twenty-three of Puerto Rico’s delegates in the April 21 primary.
The primary season is almost over, with Indiana holding both parties’ contests on May 7, followed by Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia on May 14.
In terms of the general election, Trump continues to lead Biden in the aggregates of nearly all swing state polls, while the national polls show a more even matchup.
According to the 270towin averages, Trump has a lead of five points or more Florida, Maine, and North Carolina. In Florida, his average polling lead is 9.3%, just under ten points in what appears to be a former quintessential swing state moving to the far ends of the competitive table. Similarly, Trump has a 10.5% lead in Ohio and a 12% lead in Iowa, two other once-crucial swing states that appear unfriendly to Democrats this cycle.
Trump maintains a 4.8% lead in Arizona, a 4% lead in Georgia, a 1.2% lead in Michigan, a 4.3% lead in Nevada, a 0.2% lead in Pennsylvania, and a 2% lead in Wisconsin.
For Biden, he leads in some of the other swing states, but by modest margins. In Minnesota, Biden has just a 2% lead, a thin margin for a state that has not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. Biden’s largest swing state lead comes from New Hampshire, where he enjoys an 8.3% lead. However, the latest poll from the Granite State was last registered on January 19. Biden has an 8% lead in New Mexico, a former swing state that last backed a Republican nominee in 2004. The potentially seismic shift of Latino voters to the GOP has New Mexico in the periphery of the competitive board.
Biden also has a 6% lead in Virginia, a state that backed Republicans exclusively from 1968 to 2004. Democrats have expanded their margins in each election since 2008, culminating in a ten-point win for Biden in 2020. The rapid urbanization of the immigrant-heavy, white-collar D.C. suburbs have helped push Virginia into a blue-leaning battleground.
But Biden’s polling woes don’t end with just the swing states. Even blue states are showing less-than-impressive margins for the incumbent. This doesn’t necessarily mean Trump can win them all, but in an event of low enthusiasm for Biden, coupled with a relatively strong Independent performance from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., it indicates that Biden might not be in the driver’s seat this fall.
A once red-leaning battleground, Colorado has catapulted to the left, owing to its relatively young and progressive makeup, and its unique demographics of majority-minority counties, uber-liberal ski resorts, and libertarian-minded working-class communities. Colorado last backed a Republican in 2004, although Trump was able to come within five points of winning the state in 2016, despite not making the heaviest push for it. Biden won Colorado by nearly fifteen points in 2020, all while Republicans lost their statewide elected official in the same cycle.
Despite this, Biden’s average for Colorado is hovering at 10%, with the last poll conducted April 3 showing him with a ten-point lead, and other candidates taking a collective 12%. Biden has registered as low as four points in the Centennial State, with other candidates receiving 20% in an October 2023 poll. With a high amount of Independent-minded voters, RFK’s impact on the race will have outsized importance here.
In Illinois, Biden’s lead hovers at just 9%, despite having beaten Trump by almost eighteen points in 2020. However, the last poll conducted here was October 15.
In Maine’s First Congressional District, Biden has an average lead of 8%. Maine is one of two states, the other being Nebraska, that awards its electoral votes based on congressional district winners. In Maine, the statewide popular vote winner receives two electoral votes. The winners of the state’s two congressional districts individually received one electoral vote per district. In 2016, Trump won the Second District handily, causing the first electoral vote split in Maine since the state began its use of the congressional district method in 1972.
Trump’s lead of 6% statewide is the best showing for a Republican in Maine in recent history, as Maine at-large has not backed a Republican since 1988.
Maine’s First Congressional District is heavily Democratic, as it contains Portland and the affluent coastal communities heading south to the New Hampshire border. Biden took 60% of the vote here in 2020.
In New Jersey, the latest polls are nearly within the margin of error, showing Biden with just a five-point lead over Trump, and other candidates receiving 15% as of April 2. New Jersey has not backed a Republican nominee since 1988. Trump campaigned in the resort town of Wildwood in January 2020. The Trump campaign has scheduled another rally for Wildwood on May 11.
In New York, Biden continues to struggle into comfortable territory. In a state he won by nearly twenty-five points in 2020, he now retains just a 10% average lead, with the last poll coming out on April 22. The Trump campaign has been vocal about rallying in New York and formally putting the state in play.
With about six months to go until the election, it’s truly anyone’s game. With two weeks being an eternity on an election calendar, there’s no telling what will develop from now until November. However, a lot would have to change for Biden’s numbers to give the Democratic Party some ease going into November, all while RFK’s third-party bid continues to be a wild card of unknown proportions.
In other national election news, a 2-1 ruling in Louisiana has invalidated the state’s new Congressional map. The first map approved by the state legislature for the decade featured modest changes from its previous iteration, featuring one majority-black district around the New Orleans area and five mostly white districts. The current delegation stands at five Republicans and one Democrat.
A federal judge overturned the map and insisted Louisiana create another majority-black district to reflect the state’s one-third black population. The map was redrawn by the Republican dominated legislature and signed by Governor Jeff Landry (R). The biggest change saw the Sixth District stretch from New Orleans to Shreveport, becoming an easy Democratic pickup opportunity to the endangerment of Congressman Garret Graves (R, LA-06).
Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill (R) said that the state will be seeking Supreme Court review to retain the map that would likely result in a 4-2 Republican delegation.
Former Attorney General and National Democratic Redistricting Chairman Eric Holder said that supporters of the map will likely seek an emergency order from the Supreme Court to keep the map in place while appeals are made and alternatives are presented.
State
Democrats retained New York’s Twenty-Sixth Congressional District in a Tuesday special election, filling a seat vacated by former Congressman Brian Higgins (D). Higgins represented the Buffalo area in Congress from 2005 until his resignation in February to become president of Shea’s Performing Arts Center.
The seat is the most Democratic seat in Upstate New York, with parts of Erie and Niagara Counties. The seat includes the cities of Buffalo, Lackawanna, Niagara Falls, Tonawanda, and North Tonawanda. The state’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI) is D+9, which implies it is roughly nine points more Democratic-leaning than the nation overall. This seat was held by now-Governor Kathy Hochul (D) from 2011 to 2013.
In 2022, Higgins won with 63.9% of the vote to Steven Sams’ (D) 36.0%.
State Senator Tim Kennedy (D-South Buffalo) won the Tuesday special election with 68.2% of the vote to West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson’s (R) 31.8%. Kennedy carried the portions of both counties in the district, winning Buffalo’s Erie County with 71% of the vote and Niagara County with 56% of the vote.
Dickson was elected West Seneca Town Supervisor in 2019, the first Republican to win the seat in decades. He was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2023.
Democrats were not expected to have trouble retaining the deep-blue seat, but the addition of Kennedy to the U.S. House further complicates the GOP’s efforts at maintaining an effective caucus. Kennedy’s election brings the Democrats’ total House seats to 213, while Republicans govern with 217 seats. 218 is required for a majority, a number they’ll be expected to retain once all vacancies are filled. Vacancies include CA-20, CO-04, and WI-08. NJ-10 has just become vacant after Congressman Donald Payne, Jr. died last week.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R, NY-01) recently honored Suffolk County’s Nate Bruckenthal on the twentieth anniversary of his ultimate sacrifice.
A Stony Brook native, Bruckenthal joined the U.S. Coast Guard in 1999 and was stationed at Point Wells in Montauk. He was then chosen to be among the first Coast Guardsmen deployed to Iraq in early 2003. He received the Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal and a Combat Action Ribbon for his service in and around the port of Um Qasar.
Bruckenthal volunteered for another deployment to Iraq. He and two U.S. Navy sailors were killed when a suicide bomber attacked their rigid hull inflatable boat. Sadly, his sacrifice came just weeks after learning that his wife was carrying their unborn child.
Bruckenthal was posthumously awarded the Purple Heart Medal, the Bronze Star Medal with Valor, the Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal with oak leaf, and his second Combat Action Ribbon. He was laid to rest at Arlington National Cemetery.
“Nate Bruckenthal epitomized the highest ideals of selflessness and sacrifice, consistently placing his country’s needs above his own life. His courageous actions not only saved numerous fellow Sailors but also stand as a testament to his unwavering bravery and heroism,” said LaLota. “In the face of grave personal peril, Nate’s bravery serves as a poignant reminder of the extraordinary courage our service members aspire to embody. His dedicated service to our nation shall forever remain etched in our collective memory.”
