National
Last week’s Republican Nevada Caucuses delivered an expected win: Donald Trump (R-FL) overwhelmingly carried the state with 99% of the vote. Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley was the only other Republican candidate on the ballot. He received just under 1% of the vote.
Due to recent changes by the state’s Democratic legislature, the caucus format of voting was scrapped in favor of the more direct and transparent primary process. Nevada Democrats held their primary on February 6, delivering President Joe Biden (D-DE) a large win. State Republicans held an unofficial non-binding primary the same night, which saw the unique-to-Nevada “None of These Candidates” option trounce runner-up Nikki Haley (R-SC).
Candidates could not file for both the non-binding primary and the official caucus. Trump sat out the primary to obtain delegates from last week’s caucus. He won all twenty-six of the state’s delegates.
Trump also won the U.S. Virgin Islands Republican Caucuses the same night, winning 75% of the vote and all four of the territory’s delegates.
Trump has swept the first four contests so far and has sixty-two delegates to Haley’s seventeen. February 24 will host the South Carolina Republican Primary, which will likely see the exit of native daughter Haley if she loses to Trump decisively.
The latest shakeup to the presidential race is the suspension of self-help author Marianne Williamson (D-CA) on the Democratic line. Williamson launched a long-shot bid in 2020 before suspending in January. Williamson received a collective 11,703 popular votes across the initial contests and received no bound delegates. She dropped out on February 7, and has made no formal endorsement.
The Democratic contest now pits Biden against Congressman Dean Phillips, (D, MN-03), who represents a once-ironclad GOP suburban area of Minnesota’s Twin Cities. A long-shot bid overall, Phillips has called on his party to address the writing on the wall regarding Biden’s electability and consistent general election and state polling that show Trump ahead.
Biden has won the two initial contests so far, as well as a non-binding New Hampshire Primary in a write-in campaign. New Hampshire disagreed with DNC rules to replace the state as the first-in-the-nation primary, causing Biden not to register or campaign in the state. In Iowa, Democrats have been conducting mail-in voting for the caucuses since January 12, and will continue until Super Tuesday, March 5.
In other big general election news, the Senate landscape now becomes clearer as Republicans are more than poised to flip control of the upper chamber. Democrats face an even more daunting map than they did in 2018, which featured the same cycle of Class 1 seats. While Democrats have effectively forfeited West Virginia with the retirement of popular Blue Dog Joe Manchin, they also have significant work in defending the open seat in Michigan, where the GOP has not won a Senate race since 2000. However, Democratic woes continue to materialize as Republicans landed a star and unexpected recruit in one of the nation’s bluest states.
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) announced his candidacy for the open seat being vacated by Ben Cardin (D). Hogan earned national recognition for landing the biggest upset of the 2014 general election cycle in flipping the Maryland governor’s mansion. In what polling, pundits, and Democratic leaders showed as an election of non-concern, Hogan ended up winning the solidly blue state by just under four points.
It’s important to note that gubernatorial elections often deliver different results from a state’s typical partisan lean at the federal level. Local issues, candidate quality, and stateside trends tend to outpace national moods and hot-button issues. However, for reference Maryland backed Barack Obama (D-IL) by twenty-six points just two years prior to Hogan’s upset. Hillary Clinton would win the state by a commanding thirty-three-point margin, followed by a near-identical margin by Biden in 2020.
Hogan was re-elected governor in 2018 by a comfortable twelve-point margin. His fiscal conservatism and more socially moderate-to-liberal policies made him a decent fit for Maryland and allowed him to become the first Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election since 1954 and the second overall in the state’s history.
Hogan was term-limited in 2022, and with Republicans nominating hardline conservative Dan Cox, the state flipped to Wes Moore (D) by a thirty-two-point margin.
Hogan’s announcement for Senate does not mean he is a favorite to flip it, rather he is likely being run as a “sacrificial lamb” with an outside chance of scoring a historic upset.
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1980; the Class 1 seat – this seat – has not been won by a Republican since 1970. Additionally, the last close Maryland Senate race was in 2006, in which Senator Cardin won by just over ten points.
Senate races also vary from gubernatorial races in that they are more than likely to align with their federal election results, especially in an era of decreased ticket-splitting. However, Hogan can receive the benefit of the doubt in that he earned enough split votes in a deep blue state to serve two terms as governor. To assume a figure like Hogan, one who has been staunchly critical of Trump, can’t attract a decent number of Democrats negates the “wins above replacement” model that party strategists often use in determining their best electoral success with the best possible candidate over any generic replacement.
Again, we don’t expect Hogan to win the race, but his job is to get Democrats to spend money in the last state they thought they would: Maryland. Democrats sparing no expense here means taking the heat off of the slim Republican targets they have and allows Republicans improved chances at flipping additional seats. Democrats giving the ultra-blue state the benefit of the doubt means risking a humiliating upset and forfeiting another seat in an already-slim majority in the Senate.
Hogan’s entrance is by far one of the most significant developments of the 2024 election cycle and the race will almost certainly become more observably competitive throughout the next nine months.
State
In addition to her controversial proposed cuts to school districts in her annual state budget, Governor Kathy Hochul (D) has proposed yet another controversial cut.
Governor Hochul has proposed a year-over-year decline to the state’s addiction treatment strategy. According to reports, the strategy would receive an increase of 0.8% next year, but decline by 6.6%, or roughly $66 million, by 2028.
The move comes at a time when annual overdose deaths, especially in light of the fentanyl crisis, have continued to beat all-time records year after year since 2019.
Hochul’s proposal would offset the reduced addiction treatment costs with opioid settlement funds set to be paid to the state by large pharmaceutical producers and distributions through 2040. A 2021 state law prohibits those settlement funds from being used to replace other funds for combatting the state’s addiction and substance abuse problems.
Assemblyman Phil Steck (D-Loudonville), of the 110th District, chairs the Assembly Committee on Alcoholism and Drug Abuse.
“The main thing that’s been going on in the governor’s budget overall is the use of the opioid settlements as the sole funder of increases of program funding in this area. That is not its purpose,” said Steck.
The Governor’s budget continues to receive criticism and will be debated by the legislature in hopes of achieving a passage by April 1.
Local
Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) led his New York Republican colleagues in sending letters to President Biden (D-DE), Governor Hochul (D), and New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) opposing tax dollars going to perpetuating the migrant crisis.
“Instead of throwing more of our tax dollars at the migrant crisis, the Governor and Mayor Adams must seriously address the issue by fixing the underlying issues related to the migrant crisis,” said LaLota. “We can start by reversing anti-law and order sanctuary policies and not giving undocumented migrants taxpayer-funded credit cards. Not addressing the underlying issues will not fix the problem and has the potential to exacerbate it. They need to stop gaslighting New Yorkers and fix their bad policies that created this crisis.”
LaLota, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, outlined several steps the three officeholders can take without congressional approval: End Catch and Release; reinstate Remain in Mexico; enter into Asylum Cooperative Agreements; end parole abuses; Detain inadmissible aliens; use expedited removal; reign in taxpayer funded benefits for illegal aliens; issue a proclamation to suspend or restrict entry; resume construction of the border wall; and stop repositioning border agents away from the border.
All nine other Republican members of the New York delegation, including Congressman Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), signed the letters in support.
