Early History – The Northwest Corner
The first Europeans to set foot in Washington were the Spaniards in 1774, followed by the British a few years later. Several explorers would separately map different parts of the state, including the Columbia River, which defines the border between Washington and Oregon. Americans began settling in the region in the 1830s.
British commercial interests gave way to a well-established market of fur trading along the Columbia River, and after a couple of decades of tensions between the U.S. and Britain, the countries agreed upon the 49th Parallel as the border between the U.S. and Canada. Washington’s early settlement history would be defined by a series of conflicts with the Natives and travelers along the Oregon Trail. Like its southern counterpart, the state would draw settlers with its vibrant logging and trading industries.
Unlike other destinations along the Oregon Trail, which attracted pioneer families, Seattle’s early settlers were primarily young men, leading to a rise in support for liquor, gambling, and prostitution, with prostitution being touted by a Seattle founder as a functional economic mechanism, if controlled properly. Liquor became a large industry in part because of the state’s production of hops. Today, Washington remains the nation’s leading producer of hops.
Washington’s land disputes with Canada along the western Puget Sound and San Juan Islands also helped shape its borders as a commerce hub. A small gold rush in Washington started on the heels of the Fraser Gold Rush just north in British Columbia, further sparking conflict of Pacific port city control
Washington also became an unlikely hub for black Southerners, who initially fled to California for economic opportunity, only to be faced with an economy swamped by pioneers, farmers, and prospectors looking to cash in. After moving north to Oregon, they were faced by the state’s “black exclusion laws,” which then landed them in Washington.
Washington’s original constitution included women’s suffrage and prohibition amendments, but were removed ahead of its approval. Women were given suffrage in 1887 under the governance of the Washington Territory, and eventually re-gained the right to vote in 1910 under state governance.
Industrialization and 20th Century Politics – Two Sides of the Cascades
Washington’s geography is similar to that of Oregon’s, in which the Cascade Mountains divide the state culturally and politically east-west. Early geography took shape from the urban centers that were each rooted in different industries. In the east along the Idaho border is the city of Spokane, a hub of mining activity and agriculture in the Yakima Valley. Regular and heavy rainfall west of the Cascades produced forests which gave way to the logging industries, further substantiated by the ports and trading of Seattle and cities along the Puget Sound. Seattle would actually be the primary trading gateway to Alaska, while nearby Sound cities developed distinct fishing and canning industries. Meanwhile, nearby Tacoma capitalized on ore smelting. The entire Puget Sound region would quickly become an economic powerhouse that would catapult the state to the front lines of the manufacturing front during both World Wars.
Washington’s first election was in 1892. They voted for Benjamin Harrison (R-IN) by a decently wide margin, with Populist James Weaver of Iowa taking 22%, hearkening to the intrinsically populist-progressive tendencies of the American West. William Jennings Bryan (D-NE) would form a fusion ticket with the Populists and the Free Silver Party in 1896 and would carry the state in a landslide.
While Washington never truly had a Republican phase like some states did, its backing of Theodore Roosevelt (R-NY) has since been unparalleled. His near 70% of the vote in 1904 remains the best performance of any presidential candidate to date. His conservation efforts combined with his railroad reforms led to his immense popularity in the state, resulting in Washington being one of just six states Roosevelt was able to carry in his third-party Progressive ticket in 1912. Social stances and poor outreach with heavily-unionized Washington cost Democrats this state through the 1920s. Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) won Washington by substantial margins in all four of his elections, owing to his New Deal coalition being well-received by the progressive, working-class state.
The Great Depression and World War II saw new industrial marvels call Washington home, including electricity and aerospace industries. The Depression saw the construction of several hydroelectric dams along the Columbia River. The industry continued into World War II with the 1941 construction of the Grand Coulee Dam, now the largest hydroelectric facility in the country. Similarly, in 1924, Seattle’s Sand Point Airfield was the endpoint for the first circumnavigation flight of the world. From there, the Puget Sound would become ground-zero for the Boeing Company’s production of heavy bombers during World War II. The Boeing factory in Everett, a city just north of Seattle, is the world’s largest building by volume, covering 98 acres and containing 472 million cubic feet of space.
Research in nuclear science also took root in the state, as the Hanford Works Nuclear Power Plant played a role in the development and construction of the atomic bombs.
Washington’s intrinsically western progressive, environmental, and industrial profiles have made it a unique state throughout its history. Bertha Knight Landes (R) was elected mayor of Seattle in 1926, becoming the first female mayor of a major American city. A Spokane resident’s attempt at honoring her father, a Civil War Veteran who had raised six children as a single father, later became the nation’s first Father’s Day, which would become a federal holiday in 1972.
Geography – The Evergreen State
- Northeast Region – The northern central and eastern part of the state, home primarily to farms and mining; intensely Republican.
- Southeast Region – The largest designated region of the state, stretches from Spokane to the Portland, Oregon, suburbs, as well as the Yakima Valley to the capital region. Home to small blue-leaning cities, intensely Republican blue-collar counties, the latter of which are home to high percentages of Latino voters.
- Pacific Cascade Region – The southwest corner of the state, includes Vancouver and Portland suburbs. Subject to some of the most intense change in the era of Trump. Trump became the first Republican since Eisenhower (R-KS) in 1952 to carry Pacific County – home to 25% of the nation’s oyster harvesting – and the first Republican since Herbert Hoover (R-CA) in 1928 to carry Grays Harbor County.
- South Puget Sound Region – Home to the capital of Olympia and the Seattle-Tacoma area. Working-class cities that have raced to the left in the modern progressive era. Ancestrally and currently Democratic.
- Northwest Region – The northwest corner of the state along the Canadian border. The area was once more red-leaning in presidential races but the coastal, upscale communities have become Democratic strongholds in recent years.
- Olympic Region – The westernmost part of the state along the Puget Sound, includes areas that have also become newly-competitive in the Trump era. Democratic-leaning at heart; home to logging as well as many state and national parks.
Current Political Leanings – Competitive on Paper
Washington never really had a Republican phase like other states, and it shows in its voting record. Its longest GOP streak was just four elections from 1972 to 1984, with 1984 being the last election in which Washington backed the Republican nominee, in this case Ronald Reagan (R-CA). The progressive overtones found in the state’s urban centers largely predate the current shift we’re seeing nationally today. George W. Bush (R-TX) actually did well in Washington in the 2000 and 2004 elections, losing the state by just single-digit margins both times.
Washington is also where Democrats currently hold their longest gubernatorial winning streak, and the second-longest nationally behind the GOP’s streak in South Dakota. John Spellman (R) is the last Republican to have governed Washington, having been elected in 1980. Unlike other long gubernatorial streaks, Washington has seen more competitive governor’s races in recent years. The 2024 race appears to be shaping up competitively, as Republicans scored a top recruit in former Congressman and King County (Seattle) Sheriff Dave Reichert.
Republicans have not won a Senate race in Washington since 1994, when Slade Gorton (R) lost re-election. Interestingly, Gorton is also the last Republican to have held the other Senate seat, losing re-election to that seat in 1986. Republicans last held both seats simultaneously in 1987. The GOP made a lot of noise with firebrand conservative nurse Tiffany Smiley in 2022, but despite tight internal polls and intense fundraising from Senate leadership, she failed to even come within fifteen points of Patty Murray (D), the Senate President pro tempore.
Republicans last controlled the state senate in 2017 and the assembly in 1998.
On paper, Washington is a state Republicans should be able to do fairly well in. If Republicans can solidify a working-class message and an appeal to Latino voters, they might find success stateside, but shifting the state’s presidential lean will be a bear. Washington is actually home to one of the highest non-college educated, working-class white populations, a demographic typically associated with the Deep South.
But the intense progressive lean of the urban centers and the ancestral progressive politics makes Washington even more of a lift now than it ever was for Republicans.