Known for some of its anomalous political contrasts throughout its history, and considered a swing state not that long ago, Oregon continues to display its stark urban-rural divide today.
Early History – The Oregon Trail
Oregon was first trekked by Europeans sponsored by the Hudson’s Bay Company in search of the Northwest Passage. Spanish explorations began in the mid-1500s and continued into the 1800s, as the maritime fur trade expanded in the Pacific Northwest, stretching from Oregon up to the Alaska panhandle. The Lewis and Clark Expedition traveled through Oregon after the Louisiana Purchase.
Britain and the U.S. both lay claims to Oregon and the Pacific Northwest in general. Americans called the region Oregon Country, while the British called it the Columbia District, which was administered from Fort Vancouver – named for British Captain George Vancouver, who claimed the Oregon for Britain – for which Vancouver, Washington, is now named.
The land battles escalated with the “fur deserts” the British created to siphon U.S. economic opportunity associated with fur trapping. Trapping was such an economic draw, that after the U.S. lost control of Fort Astoria, travelers found a separate passage through the Rocky Mountains, creating the Oregon Trail. Excessive trapping almost led to the extinction of the beaver population. Because of Oregon’s place as the center of the western fur trade, it adopted the nickname “The Beaver State.”
The land conflict ended in 1846 with the signing of the Oregon Treaty, which set the U.S.-Canada border at the 49th Parallel, where it remains today. The Columbia District’s name would be used for the Canadian province of British Columbia and, with the capital Vancouver, effectively “recreated” the British claim of Oregon, but just on their side of the 49th Parallel.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., Oregon was admitted as the thirty-third state on February 14, 1859.
Industrialization and Progressive Politics – “The Oregon System”
Oregon played a small role in the Civil War, as Oregon Senator and Colonel Edward Baker led Union troops in the Battle of Ball’s Bluff in Virginia in 1861. Oregon’s First Volunteer Infantry Regiment was active from 1864-1867 and only guarded travel routes and Native American reservations during the war.
An 1844 territorial statute outlawed slavery but also forced freed slaves to leave Oregon. Oregonians, although against slavery, did establish black exclusion laws. They did not want to be taken over by Southern plantations and forced to compete with slave labor. The black exclusion laws forced the black population out of Oregon, many of whom were freed slaves who arrived first in California, went north to Oregon for economic opportunity, and then went further north to Washington after being ousted by the laws. These laws were fully repealed by 1916.
With railroads, Oregon’s lumber and wheat industries hastened the development of its cities. With close proximity to the Pacific Ocean and an outlet on the Columbia River Gorge, which would become the country’s first designated National Scenic Area in 1986, the city of Portland became the urban hub for the state.
The Progressive era in American politics would not have become as intense as it did without Oregon’s help. In 1902, the state approved a direct legislative system that allowed citizens to pass referenda and ballot initiatives. In 1904, the state would impose a direct primary system for elections, and in 1908, citizens were allowed to publicly recall elected officials. The so-called “Oregon System” became a blueprint that other states would follow as Progressive politics dominated the turn of the century.
The Progressive era would also shed light on the unique set of stark conflicts Oregon has experienced, including, but not limited to: British vs. Americans, urban vs. rural, loggers and trappers vs. environmentalists, and political progressives vs. small government conservatism.
Oregon would vote with the GOP in every election from 1860 to 1928, except for 1868 and 1912. Portland and the western corridor of the state, accounting for much of the fishing and logging industries, would solidly back the GOP, while the rural interior of the state aligned more with the Democratic Party. The state would remain healthily competitive until 1900, when the fading Populist movement turned Oregon into a one-party state for the GOP. Western Oregon’s Republican front was also facilitated by Yankee roots, as many who settled in the area were transplants from New England. This was essentially a large source of the intrinsic libertarianism that kept the state Republican-leaning for most of its existence and still persists today in the form of a more progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Oregon would back FDR (D-NY) in his four elections from 1932 to 1944; he was the first Democrat to win Portland’s Multnomah County with a majority of the vote. 1936 is the last time any presidential candidate swept all thirty-six of Oregon’s counties, owing to populist roots that sided with FDR’s stance on organized labor and public ownership.
Oregon would then vote for the GOP in every election from 1948 to 1984, only going for Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) in 1964. Oregon’s political geography also paints a picture of its internal divide: 1964 is the last time a Democrat has won a majority of Oregon’s counties. In 1960, Richard Nixon (R-CA) became the last Republican to win Portland’s Multnomah County.
Geography – Both Sides of the Cascades
- Portland Metro – The bluest part of the state, a bastion of progressive votes and the reason why Oregon is no longer considered a swing state; suburban counties lean Democratic.
- Willamette Valley & North Coast – Incorporates some Portland suburbs with coastal fishing and logging communities. Ancestrally Republican areas where working-class areas have trended right under Trump, but college towns like Eugene and Corvallis trend blue.
- Southwestern Oregon – Once a blue-dog, union area, now has raced to the right under Trump. Coos County is one of the best national displays of the working-class abandonment of the Democratic Party.
- Central Oregon – The dividing line between blue coasts and red inland areas. Home to the Cascade Mountains, intensely Republican counties, except for blue-leaning Deschutes County, home to Bend.
- Eastern Oregon – Flat agricultural areas, part of the high desert, the most Republican part of the state. Malheur County has not backed a Democrat since FDR in 1940 – by only 29 votes.
Current Political Leanings – Swing State on Paper
Oregon last voted Republican in 1984 for Ronald Reagan (R-CA). Even in national landslides, Oregon’s more libertarian and progressive roots would be on full display as the GOP would only win by relatively slim margins. 1988 began Oregon’s streak with the Democratic Party, its longest one to date. However, the state would remain perennially competitive.
Owing to its long history of divided politics, Oregon, on paper, would be one of the nation’s most prominent swing states, and it wasn’t that long ago that it was. In 2000, Al Gore (D-TN) won Oregon by 0.4% against George Bush (R-TX), the fifth-closest state that election. Fast-forward to 2020 and Joe Biden (D-DE) won by sixteen points. A third-party turnout in 2016 – which is common in Oregon, again owing to its roots – almost delivered a single-digit margin for Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Trump’s populist ideals would, on paper, be a great fit for the state, but the progressive overtones of the state easily overlap the populist ones.
Outsized political influence leveraged by Portland also makes statewide contests for Republicans a serious problem. Nationalized politics don’t work here, but a more moderate message earns the chagrin of the national GOP, forfeiting much-needed money and support.
Today, Oregon is known for its unique industries. It produces 99% of all U.S. hazelnuts and is the nation’s leading producer of Christmas trees. It’s also home to several large college towns, fishing communities, logging, and tourism industries.
Currently, Oregon accounts for the second-longest gubernatorial winning streak for the Democrats: no Republican has won a governor’s race here since 1982, although they came close in 2018 and 2022.
In the U.S. Senate, the GOP lost their last seat, held by Gordon Smith (R), in 2008. Republicans last held both seats in 1995. With the state’s intrinsic habit of conflict on display, the state’s Senators have always been in contrast. The Republican icons Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood of the 1960s-1990s would regularly buck the national party but would still be deeply conservative on religious or fiscal fronts. Today, the state’s Democratic Senators represent the state’s divide, with Ron Wyden appealing to the working-class and moderate lean of the state, and Jeff Merkley being a staunch progressive.
Trump’s populist message in 2016 led some to believe the GOP could finally recapture ground in Oregon, but the national GOP is too much for Portland to handle. Simultaneously, the national Democratic Party is too progressive for much of the state. An independent Robert F. Kennedy candidacy would probably benefit Trump more than Biden, but would be a drain on both parties’ voting blocs.
For now, Oregon continues to host some of the most liberal and conservative voters in the entire country, but will likely be just out of reach for the GOP for now.
