The campaign season is now in full swing as both parties are door-knocking, fundraising, picture-posing, and policy pledging with just about two months to go until Election Day.
A brief recap for those acclimating back to campaign trail news after a well-deserved summer off: the seat of Suffolk County Executive is open for the first time in twelve years; incumbent Steve Bellone (D-West Babylon) is term-limited. Brookhaven Town Supervisor Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) is, we believe, in the driver’s seat against Dave Calone (D-Setauket).
Additionally, all eighteen seats on the Suffolk County Legislature are up for grabs as Republicans look to expand their eleven-seat majority after winning control of the body in 2021 for the first time in fifteen years. Two Republican Legislators are running unopposed while two other Republicans are running against inactive opponents.
On the other hand, Republicans have put up an active campaigner in all seven districts currently held by Democrats.
Additionally, all Republican incumbents are running for re-election this year. Four Democrats are not: one is seeking another office, another is retiring, and two are term limited.
The Messenger’s election forecast (see below) currently favors Republicans to hold their majority in the Legislature, by retaining all currently held seats and flipping two others, the First and Fifth Districts. The Messenger will not make predictions in the Sixth and Sixteenth Districts until more information is available.
We’d like to correct an error from a previous publication. Legislator Tom Donnelly (D-Deer Park) is not running unopposed in the Seventeenth District. His opponent is Catherine Corella (R-Deer Park). We move this race back to the Leans Democrat column for now. The Seventeenth District stretches between Islip, Huntington, and Babylon, and contains North Bay Shore, Deer Park, and Dix Hills.
A possible tectonic shift in Suffolk politics may be arriving in the form of a red-trending northeastern Brookhaven. This area includes rich communities of Setauket, Port Jefferson, and Belle Terre, and has been Democrats’ strongest base apart from the East End.
This year’s local elections may be the final nail in the coffin for the Democratic Party in this area, at least for the time being. Not only has Suffolk overall drifted Republican since 2016 – Trump became the first Republican to win Suffolk since George H.W. Bush in 1992 – but local elections continue to point to a form of realignment. Local elections are often seen as the most accurate indicator of an area’s true political profile.
In 2014, then-Senator Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) wrestled control of the Suffolk-based First Congressional District from Congressman Tim Bishop (D-Southampton). Republicans currently control nine of the thirteen Suffolk-based Assembly Districts, with very close calls for Democrats in the First, Tenth, and Eleventh Assembly Districts in 2022.
Part of what made 2022 so important for the GOP was the defeat of long-entrenched Assemblyman Steve Englebright (D-Setauket). Englebright served as a Suffolk Legislator from 1983 until 1992. He served as an Assemblyman from the Fourth District from 1992 until 2022, when he was defeated in an upset at the hands of Ed Flood (R-Port Jefferson Station). The hubris of Democratic operatives and the expectations of both parties Suffolk-wide assumed Englebright was a moderately safe bet for re-election at worst.
Flood defeated Englebright by 1.4 percentage points, or by about 2,100 votes.
Now, Englebright, 77, is eyeing a return to a job he has not held in about thirty years: Suffolk County Legislature.
Incumbent Kara Hahn (D-Setauket) is term-limited. She has represented the Fifth District since 2011 and has won with commanding margins each time. Her final victory in 2021 posted only a five-point margin, down from twenty-six points two years prior.
Along with a changing environment, an open seat is often the ripest opportunity to flip a district, as incumbency usually entails a baked-in advantage for the incumbent, especially in local elections where retail politics goes much farther than at any other branch of government.
Challenging Englebright for the seat is Anthony Figliola (R-East Setauket), executive vice president of a government relations and economic development business, former Deputy Supervisor of Brookhaven, and a proud family man.
Figliola ran for the First Congressional District Republican primary in 2022, coming in a close third against crypto-queen Michelle Bond. The contest was initially seen as a race between Nick LaLota and Bond, until reports of Bond’s recent move to Suffolk and vested interests in the cryptocurrency interest catapulted LaLota to frontrunner status. LaLota won the three-way primary with 47% of the vote, and Figliola managed a close third behind Bond.
Now, Figliola is embarking on the run for local politics in a district that was once inhospitable to members of his party. He’s sparing no expense in his campaign efforts, and has been a prolific door knocker since this spring.
Figliola recently held a fundraiser that attracted big names such as Assemblyman Ed Flood, Brookhaven Town Supervisor and county executive candidate Ed Romaine, Presiding Officer of the County Legislature Kevin McCaffrey (R-Lindenhurst), and none other than Lee Zeldin himself.
Zeldin is often credited with being the primary force that has started New York’s overall rightward shift, a phenomenon growing more apparent as more election results pour in. Last week, Democrats narrowly held a north Queens Assembly District, which they won by almost twenty points in 2022. Last year marked the first time since 2011 that this district had been contested by a Republican. Democrats ran unopposed in every election since then.
Zeldin’s stumping for Figliola means that the local GOP is all in on not only helping Figliola get elected to the Legislature, but also continue the paradigm shift in New York politics. Zeldin’s Port Jefferson appearance for the candidate also signals that this is unequivocally one of the most significant races of the cycle.
“Anthony Figliola is someone who is principled, passionate, smart, and he understands the issues of this district and he is ready to lead,” said Zeldin. “He will have our backs for a long way to go. He will have Ed Romaine’s back to make sure that we’re able to save this great county of Suffolk.”
“We need to drive turnout,” said Figliola, after Zeldin. “We had two percent more Republican turnout two years ago than Democrats. I believe if we have that again, with Ed Romaine at the top of our ticket, we’re going to be victorious in this Legislative District and take it back.”
At the same time, candidate for Brookhaven Town Council’s First District Gary Bodenburg (R-Port Jefferson) also held a fundraiser that attracted Supervisor Romaine and Assemblyman Flood. Bodenburg, a political newcomer, is taking full advantage of the shifting dynamics and top-of-the-ticket draw Romaine is likely to have in this area to try and oust the lone Brookhaven Democrat Jonathan Kornreich (D-Stony Brook).
“Supporting our families and our communities is job number one,” said Bodenburg. “We accomplish this by ensuring a safer and more affordable Suffolk County and making sure Council District One functions just as well as the rest of our council districts in the Town of Brookhaven.”
The First Council District overlaps with the Fifth Legislative District, a geographical feature of which Figliola and Bodenburg are taking full advantage by campaigning in tandem.
