This is the twelfth of a series column that will look at the history of all 50 States,
all 5 territories, and the Capital and the influence history has on our
current political environments. The aim of this column is to capture that
our country is not just red or blue, but rather many shades in between.
Each Lower 48 state’s current political landscape can be traced back to
its early settlement and geography and its particular involvement in the
Civil War, the Industrial Revolution, and the Civil Rights Era.
North Carolina – The Tar Heel State
While a highly inelastic state for most of its history, North Carolina has recently emerged as one of the nation’s most crucial perennial battlegrounds, becoming more and more of a microcosm of the increasing urban vs. rural national divide.
Formation and Revolution
The first English attempt at colonization in the New World was the Roanoke Colony in 1585, on Roanoke Island in the Outer Banks, by Sir Walter Raleigh, for whom the capital of the state is named. This was the site of the first English child born in North America, Virginia Dare, in 1587. Upon John White’s arrival to the area in 1590, the colony was abandoned, and the word “Croatoan” was carved into a tree, likely meaning the nearby Croatoan tribe. To this day, it is unknown what happened to the initial settlers.
Despite this mystery, the English continued to settle the Carolinas, mainly runaway servants and fur trappers from Virginia. The Spanish had difficulty navigating the dangerous coastline. The English would later charter the colony of Georgia to act as a barrier between the English Carolinas and Spanish Florida.
North Carolina quickly became a flocking point for immigrants, mostly Irish-Scots and English. The eastern part of the state was the hub of the slave population, with the Atlantic serving the only port city of Wilmington. This is where the heart of Democratic rule took root in the state. The western part of the state attracted intrinsically libertarian “yeomen” farmers, immigrants from Europe who generally did not own slaves. This contributed to the Republican Appalachia that dominated the region in several other states until the mid-20th Century.
North Carolina played host to several Revolutionary War battles, but it is credited with the first official state action of independence: April 12, 1776, the state instructed its delegates to the Continental Congress to vote for independence from Britain. On November 21, 1789, it was admitted as the twelfth state.
Civil War & Reconstruction
Antebellum North Carolina was intensely rural, with a railroad connecting the only two major cities: Raleigh and Wilmington. This railroad would prove critical in running supplies to the Confederate capital of Richmond, Virginia. While North Carolina did not have as large a slave population as other Southern states, due to lack of ports and plantations, about a third of its population by 1860 was enslaved. Still, the state’s decision for secession was not as swift as other states, since the Whigs had made it a two-party state by the time of the war.
The state did not host many Civil War battles, but did provide 125,000 troops to the Confederate army. Life for freedmen immediately following the war was still challenging, but freed blacks held office, started businesses, and were able to get an education. Raleigh’s Shaw University became the first college available to Southern blacks when it opened in 1865.
However, in the late-1800s, as the Union North withdrew military presence from the South, the Democratic party retook control. The era of Jim Crow was ushered in, with poll taxes and literacy tests affecting blacks and many poor whites. The Great Migration tanked the state’s population, while Northern Yankees immigrated to the state in search of industry and opportunity. They were dubbed “carpetbaggers” for their political influence that was hostile to the Democratic machine.
It was at this time that the national headwinds spawned the Populist Party in the 1890s, which was attractive to poor cotton farmers. The Republicans formed a fusion ticket with the Populists, which made Democrats intensify efforts to suppress votes. The state would vote for Ulysses Grant (R-OH) in 1868 and 1872; from 1876-1964 it would vote for the Democrat in every election, except 1928. North Carolina would be a one-party state for most of the 20th Century.
Industrialization
Industry drew GOP support to the South long before the 1960s, which invalidates some of the “Southern Strategy” narrative of that era. A vibrant textile industry in the Republican Appalachian west would remain Republican throughout the 20th Century, and would keep the state somewhat in play in the early 1900s. The state truly became the birthplace of aviation in 1903, when the Wright Brothers took advantage of the flat, open beaches of Kitty Hawk to conduct their first powered flight. This would later spawn an aerospace industry still present in the state today.
Both World Wars helped the economy, which was not as stagnant as that of other Southern states post-Reconstruction. World War I revived the shipbuilding industry and attracted mechanics and engineers.
World War II saw even more Union influence due to the demand from the textile industry and associated cotton farms. The state would contribute more textiles than any other state during the war. Still a highly rural state, even the most remote locations received some of the economic boost from the war.
Aerospace and defense still dominate the state’s economy; Lockheed Martin still has deep ties to the state. The city of High Point is called the “Furniture Capital of the World,” while technology and pharmaceuticals are big parts of the economy.
Current Political Leanings
While North Carolina was very much a one-party state for most of the 19th and 20th Centuries, it wasn’t as lock-step Democratic as its Southern neighbors. Western Appalachia remained Republican for most of its history, while the state’s burgeoning industry post-Reconstruction attracted Northerners and their values. It would vote for Herbert Hoover (R-CA) in 1928, as Democrats were divided over Al Smith’s (D-NY) Irish Catholic, Tammy Hall-associated profile. The state’s early abolition of the poll tax combined with Hoover’s business and Prohibition stances would deliver a Hoover victory of almost ten points. The state would vote exclusively Democratic from 1932-1964, although with margins slipping by the 1950s.
1952 and 1956 would see single-digit margins for Adlai Stevenson II (D-IL) and the east-west divide was readily apparent. Even in 1964, as Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) would win five Southern States, Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) would carry North Carolina by 13 points, as Yankee views in much of the state sided with Johnson’s views on Civil Rights.
1968 would see Richard Nixon (R-CA) win a marginal victory in a three-way race, with segregationist Alabama Governor George Wallace running a third-party attempt, taking most of the eastern, solidly Democratic part of the state. Nixon swept the west and some eastern counties that had long been trending with the GOP.
Southern favorite Jimmy Carter (D-GA) would sweep the state in 1976, making this the last time the state voted for a Democrat until Barack Obama (D-IL) flipped it in 2008.
By the 1980s, the state had developed a sincere Republican profile, although Bill Clinton (D-AR) almost carried it in his three-way races in 1992 and 1996. George W. Bush (R-TX) would easily win the state by low double-digits in 2000 and 2004.
However, by 2008 the state had begun to shift to a markedly purple position. Obama would carry the state in an upset, making it the second-closest race of that cycle. With a ballooning population over the prior ten years, mostly due to the state’s deep-blue urban centers of Raleigh and Charlotte, as well as the rural/agricultural sector dominated by the GOP and college towns dominated by the Democrats, the state was now fully in play. The battle has now come down to traditionally red suburban counties, like Gaston and Union Counties, bordering Mecklenburg County (Charlotte).
North Carolina, despite being a perennial swing state, is not considered “elastic.” This is due to the low numbers of registered independents/nonpartisans. Here, elections come down to turnout and enthusiasm, wherein both parties see how many of their own they can get to the polls. As of late, the GOP has been winning this game. Mitt Romney (R-UT) flipped the state back in 2012 and Donald Trump (R-NY) doubled his margin in 2016. While Joe Biden (D-DE) did better in 2020, Trump still won the state by over one point.
2010 was a realigning year, as the GOP took control of both state chambers for the first since 1896. The party gained a trifecta in 2013.
Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats from 1903-1972. The GOP controlled both in 1981, the first time in over 100 years. Democrats have not controlled both since 1972. The GOP holds both seats today.
The GOP has not governed the state since 2017, but will have a major chance to put it in play in 2024. The GOP has decent margins in both chambers of the state legislature.
While North Carolina is certainly a top swing state today, Democrats are having trouble consistently convincing the electorate to turn out for them. As the suburbs continue to trend blue, North Carolina’s political allegiance remains a coin toss, with a tenuous advantage for the GOP.
